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Tanger: The Bag Is Ripped

Brad Kenagy profile picture
Brad Kenagy


  • Tanger reported earnings yesterday and lowered guidance.
  • I found some key differences in the recent earnings presentation compared to past presentations.
  • I am maintaining my $15 price target.

Image Source: Fotolia

Tanger Factory Outlet (NYSE:SKT) reported earnings yesterday and the headline results were a beat, with FFO coming in ahead of expectations. However, just like the multiple times I have covered Tanger before, once you look underneath those numbers, there is a lot to be worried about. At the time of writing this article, shares were down over 5% after-hours due to Tanger lowering full-year guidance and posting negative same-center NOI. In addition to those two items, I will be covering a multitude of other items that show Tanger has more downside.

Guidance + Same Center NOI

The main reason why the stock was down after-hours was because Tanger lowered their full-year FFO guidance from $2.43 to $2.49 per share to $2.40 to $2.46 per share. Same center NOI came in at -1.5%, which was lower than the guidance the company gave at the end of the year and significantly lower than the +1.0% same center NOI growth Tanger had last year in Q1.

It was not just the headline guidance that was lowered, if you look at the underlying components of that guidance, it is easy to see why shares are down and have further downside. When you combine all these: same center NOI guidance down, occupancy guidance down, and store closings up, the result is likely to be a lower share price.

  • Same center NOI guidance for the consolidated portfolio between -2.5% and -1.5% vs. guidance gave at the end of the year at -1% to 0%
  • Projected average occupancy between 95.0% and 95.5%, which is lower than the 96% guidance Tanger gave at the end of the year.
  • More store closings: Projected 2018 store closings totaling between 150,000 and 175,000 square feet for the consolidated portfolio compared to guidance at the end of the year at

This article was written by

Brad Kenagy profile picture
-I have been investing since the fall of 2008 and invested through one of the most difficult investing periods in history and know the importance of dividend growth and stability during those times as well as during the good times. I started writing for Seeking Alpha at the end of 2011 and I have been successful with the companies I write about, which is shown by my high TipRanks success rate (Link Below). https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/brad-kenagy

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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