Dividend Aristocrats Top Gainers: Leggett, Walgreens, AT&T, Nucor And Pepsi, Per Broker May Targets

Summary

• "S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats measure the performance S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years."---us.spindices.com.
• The 53 Aristocrats stocks represent all eleven Morningstar Sectors. Broker target-top-ten net gains ranged 16.75%-30.83% topped by LEG 4/2/18.
• By yield, AT&T remained top Aristocrat of ten, LEG, CVX, ED, KO, CTAS, ABBV, KMB, PG, XOM, & T. Their yields averaged 4.05%.
• Aristocrats top ten firms by broker target price upsides, MCD, APD, JNJ, KO, T, PEP, WMT, NUE, WBA, & LEG averaged 20.72% estimated 1 yr. price gains.
• $5k invested in the lowest-priced five May top-yield Aristocrats showed 45.04% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten.  Low price small stocks topped these Dividend Aristocrats.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Cast 16.75% To 30.83% Net Gains To May, 2019

Four of ten top Aristocrats by yield were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). Thus, our yield-based forecast for Aristocrats was graded by Wall St. wizards as 40% accurate.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in the thirty highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data points. Note: one year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to May 2, 2019 were:

Leggett & Platt (LEG) was projected to net $308.26, based on target price estimates from eight analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was projected to net $282.44, based on a median target price estimate from twenty-seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% more than the market as a whole.

AT&T Inc. (T) was projected to net $240.14, based on a median target estimates from thirty analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.

Nucor (NUE) netted $226.43 based on a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% less than the market as a whole.

PepsiCo (PEP) was projected to net $220.87, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.

Walmart (WMT) was projected to net $215.58, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from thirty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.

Coca-Cola (KO) was projected to net $193.98, based on a median target price estimate from twenty-seven analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was projected to net $176.76, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 26% less than the market as a whole.

Procter & Gamble (PG) was projected to net $176.35 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from twenty-six brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.

Air Products & Chemicals (APD) was projected to net $167.46 based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from eighteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated to be 22.08% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs", even if they are "Aristocrats."

53 Dividend Aristocrats By Yield

ARI (3) 53BYYIELD Ma18

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Dividend Aristocrats Stocks By Yield

Top ten Aristocrats selected 5/2/18 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, AT&T, Inc. (T) [1] was the lone communication services representative in the top ten.

Two energy representatives placed second, and ninth, Exxon Mobil (XOM) [2], and, Chevron (CVX) [9].

Three consumer defensive sector representatives placed third, fourth, and seventh, Procter & Gamble (PG) [3]; Kimberly-Clark (KMB) [4]; Coca-Cola (KO) [7].

A single Healthcare representative found fifth place, AbbVie (ABBV) [5], while one industrials firm placed sixth, Cintas (CTAS) [6].

A lone utilities sector firm placed eighth, Consolidated Edison (ED) [8], and one Consumer cyclical firm placed tenth, Leggett & Platt (LEG) [10], to complete these Aristocratic top ten by yield for May.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Aristocrats Showed 15.8% To 29.3% Upsides To May, 2019; (31) Downside Projected From One Loser Was -2.08%.

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig-out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 45.04% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats To May, 2019

Ten top Aristocrats dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Aristocrats selected 5/2/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected The 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Aristocrats Dogs (32) Delivering 20.91% Vs. (33) 14.42% Net Gains by All Ten by May, 2019

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Aristocrats kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 45.04% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The second lowest priced Aristocrats top yield dog, Leggett & Platt (LEG), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 30.83%.

The five lowest-priced top yield Aristocrats for May 2 were: AT&T, Inc. (T); Leggett & Platt (LEG); Coca-Cola Co. (KO); Procter & Gamble (PG); Exxon Mobil (XOM), with prices ranging from $32.06 to $76.80.

Five higher-priced Aristocrats as of May 2 were: Consolidated Edison (ED); AbbVie (ABBV); Kimberly-Clark (KMB); Chevron (CVX); Cintas (CTAS), whose prices ranged from $79.25 to $170.86.

This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Aristocrats dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: petsworld.in

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long T. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.