April 2018 Employment Flows

Kevin A. Erdmann profile picture
Kevin A. Erdmann
196 Followers

Employment flows sure don't show any signs of weakness, either in gross or net terms. Healthy flows from not-in-labor-force to employed, from unemployed to employed, etc. Everything looks good.

No signs here of imminent contraction.

I have been prematurely looking for contraction from an overly hawkish Fed, but there certainly isn't much in labor markets to confirm that position.

Of course, labor markets tend to be lagging or coincident indicators, while equities and the yield curve tend to be more leading indicators. But, things are looking good here.

This article was written by

Kevin A. Erdmann profile picture
196 Followers
As a private investor, I have concentrated on deep value and turnaround microcaps, where illiquid trading markets and reputational risks allow mispricing to be occasionally extreme. Over the past few years, I have developed a radical new macro-level view of the economy. I have found that the housing bubble was not caused by reckless lending or over-investment in housing. Rather, it was caused by a shortage of housing in several important urban markets. The subsequent bust and financial crisis were not inevitable collapses of a demand bubble, but were avoidable and self-imposed consequences of a moral panic about building and borrowing. The key factors providing insights into financial markets going forward are related to the shortage of housing and the disastrous public policy responses to it. This has led to high rent inflation, perpetually tight monetary policy, a divergence of yields between US housing and bond markets, very low rates of new construction, and labor immobility/stagnation.Two books are in the works on the topic.  Here is the first:https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538122143/Shut-Out-How-a-Housing-Shortage-Caused-the-Great-Recession-and-Crippled-Our-EconomyI am currently a Visiting Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
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