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S&P 500 Weekly Update: No Need To Sell In May; Remain Resolute And Stay The Course


  • Paranoia is in control. Perception of slow global growth, trade wars, higher interest rates, and inflation have investors paralyzed.
  • Buyers are on strike as they adopt a “wait and see” approach.
  • Peak earnings? Investors are talking themselves into believing a problem that is not present.
  • Stock selection is key. We haven't seen a major market top just yet.

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."

- John Maynard Keynes

April is in the books, and while it doesn't feel that way, the S&P finished the month higher. That comes after the losses experienced in both February and March. The index is down less than 1% for the first four months.

The U.S. economy is doing OK, earnings have been exceeding already lofty expectations, and geopolitical tensions seem to be easing. The stock market, as measured by the S&P, is flat on the year. Reading that, one would think it has been quiet during the first 4 months of the year. Investors know that it has been anything but quiet. The major indices can be down 1% one minute on little or no news and turn on a dime the next. 50 point swings in the S&P have been common this year.

So, the obvious reaction is that something has to be wrong, there must be underlying issues that no one can see. Sorry, I’m staying with my conclusion that was mentioned here last week: a simple consolidation phase after a huge 13-month run-up in stocks. That surge left the indices as overbought in the short term as they had ever been at any time during this entire bull market.

The problem is, that may well be the truth, but as we have seen before, many can’t handle the truth. Well, here is an alternative for that crowd. Last year, a common cry was the stock market doesn't care about anything, it just goes up. Record streak after record streak was being broken. The common phrase was something has to be wrong. It started right after the election, where we heard the words being used calling the situation a Teflon market. Nothing (bad) was

Plenty of market crosscurrents now, "Sell in May" is added to that list. Stock selection is key and the Savvy Investor is a new Seeking Alpha Marketplace service that has the answers. Answers that have all portfolios beating the S&P 500 in 2018. Answers that disdain the emotional roller coaster many investors find themselves on now. Put yourself in control instead of the stock market controlling you. Consider joining the group of satisfied investors that have voiced their opinion and posted excellent reviews.

This article was written by

Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
Rise above "average" and be part of our winning team.

INDEPENDENT Financial Adviser / Professional Investor- with over 35 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice, and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive returns. Last year I launched my Marketplace Service, "The SAVVY Investor", and it's been well received with positive reviews. I've been part of the SA family since 2013 and correctly called the bull market for over 8+ years now. 

MORE IMPORTANTLY, I recognized the change to the BEAR MARKET trend in February '22. 

Since then investors that followed my NEW ERA investment strategy have been able to survive and profit in this BEAR market. Winning advice that is well documented, helping investors to avoid the pitfalls and traps that wreak havoc on a portfolio with a focus on Income and Capital Preservation.

I manage the capital of only a handful of families and I see it as my number one job to protect their financial security. They don’t pay me to sell them investment products, beat an index, abandon true investing for mindless diversification or follow the Wall Street lemmings down the primrose path. I manage their money exactly as I manage my own so I don’t take any risk at all unless I strongly believe it is worth taking. I invite you to join the family of satisfied members and join the "SAVVY Investor".

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article contain my views of the equity market and what positioning is comfortable for me. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, there are far too many variables. Hopefully it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel more calm, putting them in control. The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time. As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die. Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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