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NXP Semiconductors Or Micron Technology: Which Is A Better Chipmaker Stock Investment?

May 07, 2018 4:12 PM ETMicron Technology, Inc. (MU)NXPI35 Comments
Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
Peter F. Way, CFA


  • Lots of well-researched fundamentals on these stocks from qualified and capable analysts is in other SA articles.
  • But your portfolio doesn’t grow on supply and demand economics or street commentary.
  • Here is what price range forecasts are shaken out of the hedging bushes by the market-making community due to client big-money-fund portfolio managers’ block-trade order activity.
  • And the histories of how well prior forecasts for these stocks performed under earlier forecasts when the upside-to-downside outlook was like it is today.

Behind the market's curtain

This article has no fundamentals-analysis content. All of that analysis has been done by the information-gathering world-wide staffs of the Market-Making [MM] firms, instantaneously communicated to their HQ trade-desk support staffs of experienced, qualified value analysts whose judgments are enriched by the block-trade desk’s minute-by-minute knowledge of what the (big) buy-side of the street is intent on accomplishing for their portfolios.

That input is used by the MMs’ arbitrageurs in negotiating hedging deals in the derivatives markets to protect the firm’s capital that usually gets involved in balancing buyer and seller appetites of the moment. It is that MM firm-capital price-protection insurance which reveals the knowledgeable expectations of coming securities prices.

The subjects of this securities comparison are Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and NXP Semiconductors, Inc. (NXPI).

All materials appearing from blockdesk.com have been approved for this usage.

Here are Friday’s Forecasts, and outcomes of prior like foresights

Figure 1

The Figure 1 table has two distinctive parts. The first 4 numeric data columns (B) - (E) are products of the analysis of current behavior of market professionals. Those columns and the one headed Range Index (G) report what that behavior implies about the current expectations of investment professionals for the likely range of stock or ETF prices in the coming 3-4 months.

The remaining columns report what actual market price activity produced when prior forecasts for each stock similar to those of today were used to manage investments under a common portfolio discipline. The Range Index column tells what percentage of each stock’s current forecast lies below the current market price. Under the Sample Size column heading a count of the number of prior forecasts with Range Indexes like today’s is indicated at (L), along with the total number of all forecasts available from the past 5 years of

This article was written by

Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
Peter Way Associates provides daily updated, near-term (3-month) price range forecasts for over 2,500 widely-held and actively-traded stocks, ETFs and market Indexes. Comprehensive results are available on the SA blog of my name.__These forecasts are derived from the way market professionals protect their own capital placed at risk while helping big-money portfolio managers adjust their holdings in multi-million-dollar "block" transactions.__ They cannot be found elsewhere.__Having these price-change prospects available on a continuous basis encourages individual investors to actively and economically build up the values of their own smaller portfolios. PWA only provides information for individual investors; it no longer manages investments for others.__Rates of portfolio capital growth being achieved by subscribers are at MULTIPLES of the growth in market averages, due to the efficient use of holding period time and the compounding of gains a number of times each year.__Risks of capital loss are protected against by insightful selection guidance and holding-period-limit disciplines. The advantages of good selection and careful timing amply cover a much smaller portion of unavoidable losses.__These Market-maker forecasts have several decades of demonstrated productivity. Earlier in the 20th century they were used by large institutional portfolios, and now in the 21st century they are available only to individual investor wealth-building portfolios. Thousands of day-by-day identifications of specific securities having consistent, odds-on profitable results rule out any likelihood of their exceptional outcomes being due to chance. Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 50+ years ago. Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments. He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MU over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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