45 Basic Materials Wall St. Dividend Stars For May

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Includes: AHGP, ARLP, BAK, CCR, CINR, CRH, EVA, GLY, GOLD, GPRE, HCLP, SXCP, TGLS, WLKP
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Coal, Agribusiness, Chemicals, & Fibers topped May's Basic Materials sector 'WallStars' for gains, calculated by broker 1yr targets & 5/10/18.

Ten top broker-target gains ranged 25.74% to 44.57% from HCLP; CINR; WLKP; GOLD; CCR; GLT; BAK; SXCP; GREP; ARLP.

Basic Materials top ten 'WallStar' estimated-upsides were from MERC, HCLP CCR, WLKP, SXCP, BAK, GOLD, GLT, ARLP, & GPRE per 1yr. broker targets.

45 Top 'WallStar' Basic Materials dogs ranged in yield from 2.09% to 13.8%. Top ten, TGLS, CRH, WLKP, EVA, BAK, CINR, SXCP, ARLP, AHGP, & CCR, averaged 9.34% yield.

$5k March 'WallStar' Basic Materials stocks showed 15.79% more net gain than from $5k invested in all ten.  The little low price dogs rule the 'WallStar' basics.


Actionable Conclusion (1-10): Brokers Alleged 25.74% To 44.57% Net Gains For Ten Basic Materials Stocks By May 2019

Six of ten top-yielding Basic Materials stocks (tinted in the chart above) were verified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. Thus, the yield-based forecast for the 'WallStar' Basic Materials stocks as graded by Wall St. wizards was 60% accurate.

The following probable profit-generating trades were identified by estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each highest yielding stock. That dividend and the aggregate one year analyst median target price, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to May 10, 2019 were:

Alliance Resource (ARLP) was projected to net $445.74, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number was showed this estimate subject to volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.

Green Plains (GPRE) was projected to net $377.87, based on dividends plus the median of six analyst estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number was showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% more than the market as a whole.

SunCoke Energy Partners (SXCP) was projected to net $374.32, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number was showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% more than the market as a whole.

Braskem (BAK) was projected to net $370.61, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. A beta number was not available for BAK.

PH Glatfelter (GLY) was projected to net $360.10, based on dividends with plus a median target price estimate from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 27% more than the market as a whole.

CONSOL Coal Resources (CCR) was projected to net $343.64, based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from five analysts, less broker fees. A beta number was not available for CCR.

Rangold Resources (GOLD) was projected to net $320.80, based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.

Westlake Chemical (WLKP) netted $280.23 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% more than the market as a whole.

Ciner Resources (CINR) was projected to net $275.00, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% more than the market as a whole.

Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) was projected to net $257.37, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% more than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 34.57% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.

Top 40 'WallStar' Basic Materials Dogs By Target Upsides Represented All 13 Industries For May

Yield (dividend / price) results from YCharts May 10 verified by YahooFinance for fifty stocks from nine Basic Materials Industries produced the actionable conclusions in this article.


The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

Top 40 May Basic Materials Equities By Yield

Top 40 May Basic Materials Equities By Target Upside Rank

Actionable Conclusion (11-20) Yield Metrics Selected 10 Top Basic Materials 'WallStar' Stocks

Top ten Basic Materials 'WallStar' stocks selected 5/10/18 showing top yields represented just five of thirteen industries constituting the sector: (1) coal [4 listed]; (2) industrial metals & minerals [1 listed]; (3) chemicals [2 listed]; (4) lumber and wood [1 [ster]; (5) building materials [2 listed].

Best yield basic materials 'WallStar' stock was the top of four coal firms, CONSOL Coal Resources (CCR) [1]. The other three coal representatives placed second, through fourth, Alliance Holdings (AHGP) [2]; Alliance Resource (ARLP); SunCoke Energy Partners (SXCP).

Fifth by yield was the lone industrial metals and minerals firm, Ciner Resources (CINR) [5].

Sixth and eighth slots were occupied by the chemicals representatives, Braskem (BAK) [6], and Westlake Chemical (WLKP) [8]. The seventh position was assumed by lumber an wood representative, Enviva Partners (EVA) [7].

The remaining two slots were occuped by building materials firms, CRH plc (CRH) [9], and Tecnoglass (TGLS) [10] which completed the top ten May 'WallStar' Basic Materials stock list by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Basic Materials Stocks Showed 20% To 37% Upsides, To May, 2019


To quantify top rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.


Analysts Forecast A 15.79% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 'WallStar' Basic Materials Stocks By May, 2019

Ten top Basic Materials stocks were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.


As noted above, top ten Basic Materials dogs selected 3/23/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented five industries in the basic materials sector.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield 'WallStar' Basic Materials Stocks (31) Delivering 29.78% Vs. (32) 25.72% By May, 2019


$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten dividend 'WallStar' Basic Materials kennel by yield was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 15.79% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of all ten. The fourth lowest priced Basic Materials top yield dog, Alliance Resource (NASDAQ:ARLP), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 44.57%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield 'WallStar' Basic Materials stocks as of May 10 were: Tecnoglass (TGLS); CONSOL Coal Resources (CCR); SunCoke Energy Partners (SXCP); Alliance Resource (ARLP); Westlake Chemical (WLKP), with prices ranging from $8.60 to $22.05.

Five higher-priced 'WallStar' Basic Materials as of May 23 were:Ciner Resources (CINR); Braskem (BAK); Alliance Holdings (AHGP); Enviva Partners (EVA); CRH plc (CRH), whose prices ranged from $24.40 to $36.75.

That distinction between the five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Basic Material dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance or YCharts. Dog photo: barkingroyalty.com

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.