Invest At Market Peaks In Asia And It Could Take A Decade To Recover

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Includes: ADRA, AIA, IPAC, RFAP, VPL
by: Andrew Stotz

  • Imagine you managed to invest in Asia ex Japan at an absolute market peak.
  • How long would it take until your initial investment would be recovered?
  • If you invested at the peak in December 1993, you'd have to wait through both the Asian Financial Crisis and the US dotcom bubble.
  • By March 2006, you'd start to see some return on your investment.
  • 147 months = 12.3 years!
  • If you invested at the peak right before the Global Financial Crisis in October 2007, it would have taken 90 months to recover.
  • False start: Right when you'd recover in April 2015, the market would immediately dip until June 2017.
  • If you were to invest in Asia ex Japan at a market peak, it could take more than a decade until your investment start to yield any return

I got inspired to do this chart after I saw the below tweet from Michael Lebowitz.