The EV Boom Just Keeps Getting Bigger

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Includes: AAPL, BA, BIDU, BYDDF, BYDDY, GM, GOOG, GOOGL, TSLA, VWAGY
by: Matt Bohlsen

Summary

EV news highlights 2015-2018.

EV's future - 2019 and beyond.

Some futuristic concept electric vehicles.

It has now been over 3 years since I wrote my first electric vehicle [EV] article back in March 2015 titled "Chinese Electric Vehicle Companies About To Boom." At that time it was becoming increasingly clear to me that China would lead the world towards a new way of travel - a way that was pollution free. In hindsight it all seems quite obvious especially if ever you have traveled to or lived in a highly polluted Asian or Chinese city.

In this article I want to take a look over the past 3 years and just see how far we have come and where we may be going next. Below is a brief summary of some of the major headlines (with links) to get a perspective.

EV news highlights 2015-2018

2015

Tesla Model X production begins

Source

2016

EV costs declining graph

(Source: Powur)

2017

Tesla Model 3 begins production

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2018

A pictorial review of last years news

2018 - Global electric cars sales grew 58% in 2017

2018 - Global electric car market share in 2017 - averaged ~1.4% and peaked at 2% in December

Source: EV-Volumes

Tesla's semi-truck launched

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2018 - Norway's first zero-emissions ferry - The MF Ampere

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2018 - World's first fully electric cargo ship

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2018 - China is adding a London-sized electric bus fleet every five weeks

Source

2018 - Car companies commitments to going electric from 2018 to 2025

Source

2018 - Autonomous electric barges planned for the Netherlands

electric barge

Source

2018 - Boeing Co. backed startup Zunum Aero plans to deliver its first hybrid-electric plane in 2022 to JetSuite Inc.

Source

EV's future - 2019 and beyond

2018 really gives a good insight into what we can expect going forward. As the pictorial news above shows we can expect more electric vehicle of all shapes and sizes. Some of my thoughts for the next few years are listed below.

2019

  • More electric bus fleets and electric taxis being rolled out globally.
  • Some electric semis may arrive on the scene.
  • More electric car models and with longer range. Internal Combustion Engine [ICE] manufactures rush to comply with the 2019 China ZEV system.
  • Much more electric charging stations, more advancements in fast charging, more battery gigafactories.
  • General Motors (GM) plans to release the first ever autonomous robot taxis in 2019. Alphabet Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), and in China Baidu (BIDU) are also heavily involved. Autonomous vehicles being used for logistics.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share (of new vehicle sales) to rise to ~3.75% globally by end 2019.

2020

  • BNEF forecasts by 2020 there will be over 120 different models of EV's across the spectrum.
  • Electric bikes, buses, trucks and taxis becoming common in larger cities.
  • Electric ships appearing on our rivers and oceans.
  • More semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles arriving.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~5% globally by end 2020.

Source

2022

  • Most new cars will be "connected smart" cars - giving online internet access. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems [ADAS] will be common place.
  • Electric bikes, trucks, ships and boats becoming increasingly common.
  • Hybrid electric planes starting to appear, initially in smaller planes. Larger planes starting to develop a balance between electric and conventional propulsion.
  • Autonomous vehicles becoming increasingly common especially on set routes and closed routes.
  • Electric cars likely to reach cost parity with ICE cars by end 2022 (my forecast). Bloomberg forecasts by 2025.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~9% globally by end 2022.

2025

  • Many cities (London, Paris, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~15% globally by end 2025.

2030

  • Many countries (Netherlands, China, Germany, France, UK) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles either by 2030 or 2040.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~30% globally by end 2025.

EV sales forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: By 2040 my model forecasts 70% of new car sales will be electric.

The EV boom will continue to be led by China and Europe; however increasingly cheaper and smaller electric cars will help the boom expand globally. Countries such as India hope to be fully electric by 2030.

Some futuristic concept electric cars

VW Microbus concept EV at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/4/30/saupload_37628986-14933904806961894_origin_thumb1.jpg

Source

Apple iMove design study electric car

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Mercedes Smart Vision EQ fully autonomous concept car

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2023 BMW i8 electric car


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A Google/Waymo autonomous car - Lidar and camera on the roof, radar near the bumper bar (front fender)

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A fully autonomous all-electric Chevy Bolt - Planned for 2019

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Toyota's concept e-Palette for ride sharing or logistics

Related image

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A look at the inside of a fully autonomous car of the future

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Conclusion

The past 3 years has seen a rapid increase in acceptance of EVs. Pushed along by subsidies and legislation the ICE manufacturers (particularly in China and Europe) have responded well to the challenge. Volkswagen being the classic example emerging from their diesel emissions scandal to announcing an extraordinary 70 billion Euro investment into electric vehicles, backed up with their recent 40 billion Euro lithium ion battery procurement.

The next few years will see more and more electric vehicles in all shapes and sizes - Electric bikes, cars, trucks, taxis, machinery, buses, boats, ships, and planes. Added to this the military will also continue to start to electrify their transport fleets, and the era of fully autonomous vehicles and ride sharing vehicles will arrive.

For investors there will be enormous opportunities especially given the rapid pace of change. My Trend Investing service will continue to focus to capture the best opportunities for investors.

As usual all comments are welcome.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD Co (HK:1211), GOOG.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.