Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Targets & Dividends Projected 22.5% To 46.42% Net Gains Powering Ten Top Energy Stocks To June 2019
Six of ten top-gaining Energy sector stocks, based on analyst 1-year target prices, were also part of the top ten dividend-yielders for the coming year (as tinted in the chart above). Thus, the yield-based forecast for the Energy sector, as graded by the Wall St. wizards, was 60% accurate.
The following probable profit-generating trades were selected by estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in each highest yielding stock. That dividend and the aggregate one-year analyst median target price, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to June 14, 2019 were:
CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) was projected to net $464.23, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% more than the market as a whole.
Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP) was projected to net $365.92, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% opposite the market as a whole.
Sprague Resources (SRLP) was projected to net $363.00, based on a median target price estimate from four analysts plus dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 39% more than the market as a whole.
USA Compression Partners (USAC) was projected to net $343.64, based on a median target price estimate from seven analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% more than the market as a whole.
Dominion Midstream Partners (DM) netted $333.95 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% more than the market as a whole.
TransMontaigne Partners (TLP) was projected to net $299.31, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 79% less than the market as a whole.
Sunoco (SUN) was projected to net $288.13, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from seventeen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.
Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) was projected to net $282.84, triggered by target price estimates from three analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 9% more than the market as a whole.
Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $257.59, based on a median target price estimate from six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for GPP.
Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) was projected to net $225.05, based on target price estimates from seventeen analysts, and dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 32.23% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten WallStar stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 23% less than the market as a whole.
Top 50 Energy Stocks By Yield Represented All 6 Energy Sector Industries For June
Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts June 14 verified by Yahoo Finance for fifty stocks from all six Energy Sector Industries revealed the actionable conclusions highlighted in this article.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top Energy Dividend Equities By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Yield Metrics Identified 10 Top Energy Equities
Top ten Energy dogs by yield represented five of the six industries in the sector: (1) midstream [2 listed]; (2) exploration & production [2 listed]; (3) drilling [1 listed]; (4) refining & marketing [4 listed]; (5) equipment & services [1 listed]; and (6) integrated [0 listed].
First place was taken by Sanchez Midstream Partners , the first of two midstream representatives listed. The other midstream firm placed tenth, Green Plains Partners .
The lone drilling firm placed fourth, Awilco Drilling (OTCPK:AWLCF) . Thereafter, four refining & marketing firms, placed fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth: CrossAmerica Partners ; Sunoco ; S-Oil (OTCPK:SOOCY) ; and Sprague Resources .
Finally, the lone equipment & services representative placed seventh, USA Compression Partners , to complete the top ten Energy Sector top stocks by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: Ten Energy Stocks (21-30) Showed 15% To 35.44% Upsides To June 2019
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided more tools to dig out bargains.
Analysts Forecast A 5.63% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Energy WallStars To June 2019
Ten top Energy dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Energy WallStars selected 5/15/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented three of six industries in their sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Energy Equities (31) Delivering 24.17% Vs. (32) 25.61% Net Gains by All Ten by June 2019
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Energy kennel by yield was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 5.63% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of all ten. The fifth lowest priced Energy top yield equity, CrossAmerica Partners, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 46.42%.
The five lowest-priced top Energy stocks for June 14 were: Awilco Drilling; PT Medco Energi Internasional; MV Oil; Sanchez Midstream Partners; and CrossAmerica Partners, with prices ranging from $5.65 to $16.17.
Five higher-priced Energy stocks for June 14 were: USA Compression Partners; Green Plains Partners; Sprague Resources; Sunoco; and S-Oil, whose prices ranged from $16.94 to $39.01.
That distinction between the five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. - Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your energy sector dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance or YCharts. Dog photo: bedandbiscuit.biz
Four of these top 50 energy pups by yield qualify as a valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site, or the 52 Dogs of the Week II now accumulating returns. Also, a Safari to Sweet Success (Dogs of the Week III) portfolio launched in early September. Click here to subscribe or get more information.
Make investing gains again. Catch your underdog on Facebook!
At 8:45 AM nearly every NYSE trading day on Facebook/ Dividend Dog Catcher, Fredrik Arnold gives a quick live video summary of one of four or five stocks contending for a single weekly slot in his Safari To Sweet Success portfolio.
Go to Facebook/Dividend Dog Catcher at 8:45 AM most trading days and watch, like, comment, and share it. Of course, you're welcome to view all the replays, too, anytime.
Yet always remember: Root for the Underdog.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.