We know that this next week will be a holiday week for U.S. markets, so we're just going to go straight to the charts this week to recap the fourth and final week of June 2018!
Because we're at the end of 2018-Q2, it's also time to look ahead into the alternative futures of 2018-Q3....
We've added a "redzone" forecast to our 2018-Q3 alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart, which we periodically do when the projected trajectories we indicate are skewed due to the past volatility of stock prices, which occurs because we incorporate historic stock prices as the base reference points from which we project the future in our forecasting model.
In this case, we've assumed that investors will remain largely focused on the distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting current-day stock prices, where we think our model's projections will undershoot the actual trajectory that the S&P 500 will take. At least in the period from June 28, 2018, through July 16, 2018.
Let's get to the week's more notable market-moving headlines of Week 4 of June 2018.
Monday, June 25, 2018
- Oil drops as market braces for more OPEC crude and Wall Street slips
- Trade Wars Noise:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble as tech leads Wall Street lower
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
- Oil surges as U.S. pushes allies to halt imports of Iranian crude
- Fed's Kaplan says policy is still accommodative
- Fed minions' views on President Trump's trade wars:
- BEA's assessment of President Trump's tax cuts:
- Energy leads Wall Street rebound as trade worries ease
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
- Oil rallies as supply disruptions seen from Canada to Libya
- Fed's Rosengren warns against running U.S. economy above capacity
- Wall Street tumbles on renewed U.S.-China trade jitters
Thursday, June 28, 2018
- U.S. oil dips as markets well supplied despite strong demand, outages
- Chance for continued U.S. job gains an argument for low rates: Fed's Bullard
- QE lives! U.S. Fed buys $2.6 billion of mortgage bonds, sells none
- Wall Street advances with help from technology, financials
Friday, June 29, 2018
- U.S. oil prices hit three-and-a-half-year high on concern over Iran sanctions
- Trump says expects another tax overhaul 'probably in October'
- Wall Street ekes out gain as Nike surges
Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz has summarized positives and negatives to be found in the economics and markets news for Week 4 of June 2018!
On a programming note, we're going to be "market-lite" this week, where we'll be featuring some more fun related items, particularly later in the week.