Dividend Sensei's Portfolio Update 42: 3 Reasons A Perfect Jobs Report Spells Great News For Stocks

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Includes: AAN, AAPL, ABBV, ADM, AFL, ALLE, AM, AMGP, AMP, AMT, ANDX, AON, AOS, APD, APOG, AQN, AVGO, AY, BAC, BAM, BEP, BIP, BLL, BNS, BPMP, BPY, BUD, C, CAKE, CASY, CB, CCI, CCL, CCMP, CDUAF, CDW, CE, CL, CLX, CM, CMCSA, CMI, CNI, CNXM, COG, COLD, COR, COST, CP, CSCO, CSFL, CSL, CVS, CWEN, D, DFS, DG, DIS, DM, DOV, ECL, EIG, EMRAF, ENB, EOG, EPD, EPR, EQGP, EQM, ET, ETN, FBHS, FDS, FDX, FELE, FLO, FTS, GIL, GIS, GLW, GPC, HAS, HCKT, HD, HEP, HESM, HII, HON, HP, HRL, HSY, HUBB, IBM, IDCC, IFF, IMBBY, INGR, INTC, IRM, ITW, IVZ, JNJ, K, KMB, KMI, KO, LECO, LEG, LOW, LRCX, LUV, LYB, MA, MAN, MDLZ, MDP, MDT, MKTX, MMC, MMM, MMP, MO, MPLX, MPW, MRT, MSA, MSFT, MWA, NBHC, NBLX, NDAQ, NEP, NOBL, NVDA, NVS, O, OMP, OSK, OTEX, OZK, PCAR, PEGI, PEP, PFE, PFG, PG, PM, PPG, PRU, PSX, PSXP, PXD, QCOM, QSR, QTS, RCL, ROP, ROST, RY, SBUX, SEP, SHLX, SIMO, SJM, SKT, SNA, SPG, STOR, SWKS, T, TAP, TD, TERP, TGE, TGT, TJX, TRP, TRSWF, TSCO, TSN, TTC, TU, TXN, UBS, UL, UNP, UPS, V, VFC, VLP, WBA, WGP-OLD, WHR, WSFS, WSM, XOM
by: Dividend Sensei
Summary

I have spent the last few weeks worrying that rising economic risks might start to show up in the data.

Particularly, I was concerned that rising trade tensions might cut off strong jobs creation.

However, the latest Goldilocks jobs report indicates no impact as of yet.

In fact, the report shows three important facts and trends that spell great news for stocks over the medium to long term.

This week, there are 194 quality dividend growth stocks worth buying at fair value or less, off a master watchlist of 287 companies.

(Source: imgflip)

Introduction

First, let me be very clear that this is my personal portfolio tailored to my specific financial situation, risk profile, time horizon, and personality traits. I am not recommending anyone mirror this portfolio, which is merely designed to show my unique, rule-based, methodical approach to value-focused, long-term, dividend growth investing.

My situation is unique, as though only 31, I'm already retired (medical retirement from the Army), thus making this portfolio an income-focused retirement one (though in a taxable account). I'm also working full-time (self-employed) and thus have an external source of income to continually add to this portfolio. I do not plan to actually tap the portfolio's income stream for 20-25 years, when I plan to move my family (and help support my parents) to the promised land of my people (retired dividend investors): Sarasota, Florida.

What this portfolio can be used for is investing ideas; however, this portfolio includes high-, low-, as well as medium-risk stocks, so it's up to each individual to do their own individual research and decide which, if any, of my holdings are right for you.

For a detailed explanation of my methodology, please read my introductory article to the EDDGE (Eternal Daily Dividend Growth Experiment) 4.0 portfolio. However, keep in mind that the portfolio is not static, and both it and the underlying investment strategy will evolve and adapt over time. This is because a changing world, new knowledge, and more experience will cause me to fine-tune it over coming years and decades to maximize my income and total returns.

The reason behind owning such a widely diversified portfolio is because I've built this strategy using historical statistical analysis. Statistics requires large sample sizes to have any useful predictive power, and so, the more stocks I own, the more likely the long-term total returns are to approximate the projected returns. As a side benefit, it also creates a highly stable "bunker" portfolio that is likely to easily survive whatever future market storm might come. It also creates a stream of near-daily dividends which will allow me to compound my dividend reinvestment faster.

Note that this experiment has to hit certain performance targets within a fixed time frame:

  • Break even within 3 years (Kevin O'Leary Principle: If you don't make money after 3 years, it's a hobby, not a business.")
  • Match the market within 4 years.
  • Beat the market within 5 years (on an unlevered basis).
  • Beat smart beta ETFs that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 (like NOBL) within 6 years.
  • Beat all ETFs or smart beta ETFs (like QQQ) within 7 years.

In case the portfolio fails to hit these targets, then I'll adapt it to add what is outperforming it. That means switching to an alternative plan, which tentatively looks like this:

  • 25% QQQ (Nasdaq ETF, which I consider a superior index to the S&P 500)
  • 25% SCHD (Dividend achiever ETF, which is also superior to the S&P 500)
  • 10% non-dividend stocks (such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B))
  • 5% into bond CEF Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (GOF) - only form of bond exposure I plan on right now
  • 35% individual dividend growth stocks (focused on maximizing long-term total return potential via 20-25 stocks)

Also, to make it easier to digest, I've decided to try separating my weekly investment lesson/commentary from the actual portfolio update. This week's commentary explains three reasons that fears of a trade war might actually lead to an epic stock market rally.

The Goldilocks Economy Continues

Last week I highlighted three rising economic risks that could potentially end America's second-longest economic expansion in history.

(Source: Ploutos)

Specifically my concern was that some of the worries that investors have had, including: tariffs, inflation, and rising interest rates, might be showing up in the economic data. My biggest concern of all has been the health of the US labor market, which I see as the cornerstone of what I expect to become the longest economic expansion in US history (in July 2019).

Well, the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, has largely put my mind at ease, at least for one more month. Let's take a look at three reasons why this near perfect jobs report likely spells good news for: workers, the economy, and ultimately your portfolio over the medium to long term.

1. No Signs Of Trade Related Job Slowdown Yet

I'm not the only one that has worried that rising trade war fears would lead to slower economic growth. In the Fed's latest minutes, which highlight the Federal Open Market Committee's or FOMC's discussions about interest rate policies, the Fed specifically mentioned trade related uncertainty potentially dragging on the economy.

Many District contacts expressed concern about the possible adverse effects of tariffs and other proposed trade restrictions, both domestically and abroad, on future investment activity; contacts in some Districts indicated that plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed as a result of uncertainty over trade policy." – FOMC minutes

The most trade sensitive sector of the economy is manufacturing, as it relies very heavily on a global supply chain for cheap inputs, as well as for export markets.

(Source: Jeff Miller) Note Above 50 indicates growth

However, thus far the worries over trade conflicts have yet to show up in the data. In fact, the latest ISM manufacturing index shows extremely strong and accelerating manufacturing activity. This has translated into continued strong manufacturing hiring, including 36,000 net manufacturing jobs created in June and 285,000 net jobs created in the past 12 months.

In fact, the entire June jobs report was stellar, continuing the trend of "Goldilocks zone" reports we've seen this year. For example, here are the report's highlights:

  • +213,000 net jobs created in June
  • +37,000 net revisions to April and May's report
  • +211,000 average net jobs created over the last three months
  • +200,000 average net jobs created over last 12 months

This continues the long-term trend of strong job creation bringing down all measures of unemployment.

(Source: Jeff Miller)

Of course, some will point out that unemployment, both U3 (headline figure) and U6 (broadest measure), increased 0.2% in June, to 4.0% and 7.8%, respectively. However, even that turns out to be a good thing.

2. Labor Force Participation Rate Rising Is Highly Bullish For The Economy

The reason unemployment went up last month was because 601,000 people entered the workforce (started looking for jobs). This implies stronger worker confidence in the labor market, which is now the strongest it has been in almost 20 years. The large number of people entering the workforce pushed up America's labor participation rate 0.2%, to 62.9%.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

The labor participation rate or LPR is the percentage of 16 to 64 year olds who are employed or seeking employment. The LPR peaked in early 2000 at 67.3% and has spent 15 years declining to a low of 62.3% in September 2015. A falling LPR is a major drag on the economy because the more people are working the stronger America's consumer spending power is, which accounts for about 70% of US economic growth.

There have been two big reasons for the LPR falling. The first was the Great Recession which left tens of millions feeling hopeless about ever finding a good job again. However, the biggest reason has been the aging of the baby boomers. Each day and average of about 10,000 people hit age 65 and are thus officially considered to be out of the labor market. This is why, despite net job creation becoming positive in 2011, America's LPR continued declining until late 2015. However, now we're seeing strong enough job growth, courtesy of a bolstered economy, that enough people are re-entering the workforce and causing the LPR to actually start rising slowly.

This is likely to serve as a positive for economic growth going forward, assuming the trend continues. Meanwhile, we can't forget that the LPR automatically excludes anyone over the age of 65, whether or not they choose to actually keep working. In fact, according to the AARP, the number of people working in retirement, either part time or full time, has risen to new all-time highs.

(Source: AARP)

For example, according to the most recent Census data (from 2017), 50% of those age 75+ and up were still working full time. And even the very old have got on board the "keep working" bandwagon. For instance, since the Great Recession the employment rate for those 85+ has nearly doubled, to 4.4%.

Of course, the reason that many older workers keep working is due to financial necessity, such as inadequate retirement savings. However, the upside is that continued work has shown to have extremely beneficial effects on one's cognition and overall happiness. In other words, while some keep retirement age workers keep working because they have to, many choose to do so because it beats an inactive retirement that rots your brain.

Whatever the reason for older workers continuing to work, the fact is that a rapidly tightening labor market is becoming far more open to hiring them or allowing them to remain at their current jobs. And in the meantime, greater spending power helps to alleviate one of the biggest secular drags on future economic growth.

However, the best news out of the jobs report was about wages.

3. Slow And Steady Wage Growth Could Help Fed Avoid Making Rate Hike Mistakes

One of the biggest reasons people worry about a future recession is because of the Federal Reserve's continued belief in the NAIRU (Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment), also known as the full employment rate. The Fed currently estimates this to be 4.5%. In other words, at a U3 rate of 4.5%, the Fed believes that pretty much everyone who wants a job can get one and a lower employment rate will cause rising inflation.

Contacts in several Districts reported difficulties finding qualified workers, and, in some cases, firms were coping with labor shortages by increasing salaries and benefits in order to attract or retain workers. Other business contacts facing labor shortages were responding by increasing training for less-qualified workers or by investing in automation. – FOMC minutes

The tight job market, (there are now more open jobs than people looking for work) has the Fed concerned that wage growth might be about to accelerate too quickly and force companies to start raising prices. However, the actual pace of wage growth continues to be trending up, but very slowly and far from levels that will trigger inflation. For example, in June the BLS estimates that average wages, both overall and for non-supervisory (80% of workers) wage growth was 2.7% year-over-year. That's only slightly up from 2017's average of 2.5%.

Normally, a healthy economy sees 3.5% to 4% wage growth and we're still far below that. However, there's something very important to realize about this disappointing level of wage growth. Average wage growth is highly sensitive to older workers (peak earners) retiring and being replaced by lower earning younger workers. This substitution effect is causing the actual wage growth most people are experiencing to appear larger than the BLS figure indicates.

(Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve)

For example, if we use median wages instead, which compensates for this secular demographic trend, then wage growth is actually 3.2%, or about 20%, higher. More importantly that continues a long-term trend of gradually rising wages that have doubled wage growth since bottoming in January of 2010.

I'm a big fan of accelerating wage growth for two reasons. First, it means stronger consumer spending power. But more importantly because as the job market tightens it means that gradually rising labor costs will force companies to invest in labor productivity-boosting technology. This will increase overall productivity and thus allow higher wage growth to not trigger higher inflation. That in turns would allow the Fed to avoid hiking rates too high, too fast and trigger a recession.

Or to put another way, rising wages are the key to America's continuing Goldilocks economic growth rate. One that's between 2% and 3%, and avoids "economic overheating" that the Fed and so many other economists are worried about. This means continued low inflation but faster prosperity growth for an ever-widening number of people.

Growing national prosperity, experienced by tens of millions of previously discouraged workers who had abandoned hope of a finding a job, spells great news for corporate earnings, and dividend growth. In other words, this latest jobs report indicates that, despite all the worries we have over interest rates and rising tariffs, the most important fundamentals of the economy (jobs and wages) remain strong and headed in the right direction. All of which bodes well for the prospects of our diversified dividend growth portfolios.

Economic Growth And Recession Risk

I use five key meta analyses to track the health of the economy. That includes those which have historically proven to be good predictors of recessions: the yield curve, the BaR economic graph, Jeff Miller's meta analysis of leading economic indicators, the St. Louis Fed's smoothed-out recession risk indicator, and the New York and Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth tracker.

(Source: Business Insider)

The yield curve has proven the single-most accurate predictor of recessions over the past 80 years. Specifically, when the curve inverts, or goes below 0 (because short-term rates rise above long-term rates), then a recession becomes highly likely. It usually begins within 12-18 months.

Yield Curve Inversion Date

Recession Start Date

Months To Recession Once Curve Inverts

August 1978

January 1980

17

September 1980

July 1981

10

December 1988

July 1990

19

February 2000

March 2001

13

December 2005

December 2007

24

Average

16.6

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Ben Carlson)

According to a March 2018 report from the San Francisco Fed, an inverted yield curve has “correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession.” In other words, if the yield curve goes negative there is probably a 90% chance of a recession starting within the next 17 months or so.

Unfortunately, investors hoping to use the yield curve to time market tops are out of luck. While a yield curve inversion is very accurate at predicting recessions with long lead times, its track record on predicting bear markets is far less impressive.

2/10 Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Bear Market Starts

(Source: Wealth Of Common Sense)

The lag time between market tops and yield curve inversions is all over the map, ranging from just 2 months in 2000 to nearly 2 years in 2005.

And if we go back to 1956 (using the 1/10 yield curve), we can also see that yield curve inversions are largely useless for timing bear market starts. In fact, on three occasions the forward-looking market has actually peaked before the curve inverted. This means that the yield curve should not be used as a market timing mechanism but rather purely as a good recession risk indicator.

Current 2/10 Yield Curve: 0.29% (down from 0.33% last week)

The yield curve is now at its lowest point in 11 years. This is likely due to the stock market falling over trade war concerns. This is creating a flight to safety driving up 10-year bond prices and lowering the 10-year yield. Fortunately, history shows that the actual number isn't significant, and recession risk is low as long as the curve is positive.

Overall, I'm still optimistic that strong economic growth and rising inflation expectations should help to keep long-term rates rising over time and thus put off any potential inversion for many months, if not years. That's especially true if the Federal Reserve avoids hiking short-term rates too aggressively if the curve falls too low.

The second economic indicator I watch is Economic PI's baseline and rate of change, or BaR economic analysis grid. This is another meta analysis incorporating 19 leading indicators that track every aspect of the US economy. That includes the yield curve, through a different version of it.

(Source: Economic PI)

The BaR grid has shown to be a reliable indicator predicting the 1980, 1990, 2001, and 2007 recessions.

With 9 out of 19 economic indicators in the expansion quadrant (indicating accelerating growth), and 10 out of 19 still showing positive (though decelerating) growth, there remains little cause for concern.

(Source: Economic PI)

Note that 12 weeks ago, there were 12 economic indicators in the expansion quadrant. However, the mean coordinate point (economic aggregate) remains about 37% above baseline and showing increasing positive acceleration. As long as this remains the case, the economy is doing fine and recession risk is low.

Next, there's Jeff Miller's excellent economic indicator snapshot, a rich source of numerous useful market/economic data. It also provides an actual percentage probability estimate for how likely a recession is to start in the next few months.

(Source: Jeff Miller)

What I'm looking at here is the quantitative estimates of short-term recession risks. In this case, the four-month recession risk is about 0.87%, while the probability of a recession starting within nine months is about 24%. While that is up slightly from last quarter, I don't consider it statistically significant. However, I will be watching inflation expectations closely (which drive bond yields) to see if the bond market loses confidence in the country's long-term growth prospects. Thus far stable and slightly higher inflation expectations remain bullish for economic growth prospects.

For another look at recession risk, I like to use the St. Louis Fed's smoothed-out recession risk indicator. This looks at the risk of a recession beginning in the current month (it's actually delayed two months). It uses a four-month running average of leading economic indicators.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

The way to read this graph is to understand that in the past (since 1967), as long as the reading (currently 0.14% recession risk) is under 18%, the economy has never been in a recession. This means that this graph can tell us with about a four-month lead time whether or not the economy is likely to be contracting.

Current Economic Growth Projections

Okay, so the economy is nowhere close to a recession right now. But how fast is it growing? Well, we have two models for that, courtesy of the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed. The actual figure itself is not nearly as important as its trend over the past few weeks and months.

(Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve)

(Source: New York Federal Reserve)

These are just models and depending on how they weight different leading indicators, the projections can be wildly different. But they can offer us a reasonable estimate of current economic growth (range of 2.8% to 3.8%). More importantly, the consensus growth estimate (from economists) has been trending up all quarter indicating that US economic growth appears to be not just strong but getting stronger over the last few months.

The New York model also is set to estimate future growth and is currently estimating 2.7% growth in Q3 2018 (up from 2.5% last week).

Current growth estimates still bode well for continued job growth, and thus, a continued tightening of the labor market that should eventually boost wages at a faster rate. Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that wage growth is now 2.7% YOY. Median wage growth, a more accurate measure of wage increases, is rising at 3.2%.

I expect gradually rising wage growth to spur stronger consumer spending (70% of the US economy) and drive stronger corporate investment and earnings/cash flow/dividend growth. In fact, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending in the last two months grew at 0.5% and 0.6% month over month, respectively. Meanwhile, retail sales for last month came in at 5.9% YOY, which was double what economists were expecting.

Since mid-2015, the overall trend in consumer spending has been positive, which should continue to drive strong growth. However, I will continue to monitor all macro-economic data for signs that trade uncertainties start weighing on economic and labor market growth.

Master Watchlist

There are about 3,000 dividend-paying stocks in America (including special dividends and variable payers). This list has a goal of eventually listing all low-/medium-risk dividend growth stocks that have the potential to achieve 10+% total return potential.

Target yield indicates approximately fair value, which is the most I'd ever recommending paying for a company, no matter how good it is.

Total return potential is taken from the Gordon Dividend Growth model, which found that over time, total return for dividend stocks tracks yield + long-term dividend growth (a proxy for earnings and cash flow growth).

The projected dividend growth is from either management guidance or the current analyst consensus. Finally, I've included a sector column because some investors, for various reasons, don't want to/can't invest in MLPs.

Bolded and bracketed stocks are at fair value or better and worth buying today. The order of the stocks is the order I recommend buying them in, assuming that maximizing total return is your primary goal.

This week's new additions to the list include:

  • Evercore (NYSE:EVR): 10 consecutive years of dividend growth, 13% long-term dividend growth potential
  • Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ): 6 consecutive years of dividend growth, 11% to 12% long-term dividend growth potential
  • American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG): 13 consecutive years of dividend growth, 12% long-term dividend growth potential
  • Kellogg (K:) 14 consecutive years of dividend growth, 8% long-term dividend growth potential
  • Waste Management (NYSE:WM): 15 consecutive years of dividend growth, 11% long-term dividend growth potential
  • Republic Services (NYSE:RSG): 15 consecutive years of dividend growth: 11% long-term dividend growth potential
Ticker Company Target Yield (Fair Value) Current Yield Potential Long-Term Dividend Growth Total Return Potential Sector Industry
(AMGP) Antero Midstream GP 0.4% 2.2% 26.3% 28.5% MLP (no K1) Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(IDCC) InterDigital 1.5% 1.7% 25.0% 26.7% Technology Telecom Equipment
(AM) Antero Midstream Partners 3.7% 5.2% 19.9% 25.1% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(PXD) Pioneer Natural Resources 0.1% 0.3% 23.6% 23.9% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(DM) Dominion Midstream Partners 3.3% 9.9% 14.0% 23.9% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(NBLX) Noble Midstream Partners 3.6% 3.9% 19.0% 22.9% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(EQGP) EQT GP Holdings 2.5% 4.4% 18.0% 22.4% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(SIMO) Silicon Motion Technology 2.1% 2.4% 20.0% 22.4% Technology Semiconductors
(NVDA) NVIDIA 0.17% 0.24% 21.7% 21.9% Technology Semiconductors
(NASDAQ:LRCX) Lam Research 1.2% 2.5% 19.3% 21.8% Technology Semiconductor Equipment
(COG) Cabot Oil & Gas 0.3% 1.0% 20.8% 21.8% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(LOW) Lowe's Companies 1.7% 2.0% 19.8% 21.8% Consumer Cyclical Home Improvement Stores
(HII) Huntington Ingalls Industries 1.2% 1.3% 20.0% 21.3% Industrial Defense
(NASDAQ:MKTX) MarketAxess Holdings 0.8% 0.8% 20.0% 20.8% Finance Capital Markets
(CNXM) CNXM Midstream Partners 5.5% 6.7% 14.0% 20.7% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
DPZ Domino's Pizza 1.1% 0.8% 19.9% 20.7% Consumer Discretionary Restaurants
(AMP) Ameriprise Financial 2.3% 2.5% 18.0% 20.5% Finance Asset Management
(EQM) EQT Midstream Partners 3.6% 8.2% 12.0% 20.2% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(ETE) Energy Transfer Equity 5.8% 6.9% 13.0% 19.9% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(MA) Mastercard 0.3% 0.5% 19.3% 19.8% Financial Credit Services
(EOG) EOG Resources 0.4% 0.6% 19.0% 19.6% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(HESM) Hess Midstream Partners 5.0% 6.7% 13.0% 19.7% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(OMP) Oasis Midstream Partners 5.0% 8.4% 11.0% 19.4% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(ABBV) AbbVie 3.5% 4.0% 15.2% 19.2% Healthcare Biotechnology
(NYLD) NRG Yield 6.0% 6.9% 12.0% 18.9% YieldCo Renewable Energy
(HCKT) Hackett Group 1.9% 2.1% 16.7% 18.8% Technology IT Consulting
(V) Visa 0.5% 0.6% 18.1% 18.7% Financial Credit Services
NTES NetEase 1.2% 0.8% 17.7% 18.5% Technology Internet Software & Service
(RCL) Royal Caribbean Cruises 1.9% 2.3% 16.2% 18.5% Consumer Cyclical Hotel, Resorts, Cruise Lines
(SBUX) Starbucks 1.4% 2.9% 15.4% 18.3% Consumer Cyclical Restaurant
EQIX Equinix 2.1% 2.0% 16.2% 18.2% REIT Data Center REIT
(TGE) Tallgrass Energy LP 4.2% 8.7% 9.0% 17.7% MLP (No K1) Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(LUV) Southwest Airlines 0.8% 1.2% 16.4% 17.6% Consumer Cyclical Airlines
(DOV) Dover 2.2% 2.6% 15.0% 17.6% Industrial Diversified Industrials
(AMT) American Tower 1.8% 2.1% 15.4% 17.5% REIT Telecom REIT
(CMCSA) Comcast 1.7% 2.3% 15.0% 17.3% Telecom Cable & Satellite
(PEGI) Pattern Energy Group 6.7% 8.8% 8.3% 17.1% YieldCo Renewable Energy
(COR) CoreSite Realty Corp 3.5% 3.6% 13.5% 17.1% REIT Data Center REIT
(QCOM) Qualcomm 3.2% 4.3% 12.8% 17.1% Technology Semiconductors
NEP NextEra Energy Partners 4.1% 3.6% 13.5% 17.1% YieldCo Renewable Energy
(HD) Home Depot 2.1% 2.1% 14.9% 17.0% Consumer Cyclical Home Improvement Stores
(QSR) Restaurant Brands International 1.4% 3.0% 14.0% 17.0% Consumer Cyclical Restaurant
(SWKS) Skyworks Solutions 1.1% 1.3% 15.6% 16.9% Technology Semiconductors
(CCI) Crown Castle 3.9% 3.8% 13.1% 16.9% REIT Telecom REIT
(UNP) Union Pacific 2.0% 2.0% 14.8% 16.8% Industrial Railroads
(ALLE) Allegion PLC 0.7% 1.1% 15.7% 16.8% Industrial Building Products
(AVGO) Broadcom 1.6% 2.8% 13.9% 16.7% Technology Semiconductors
BLK BlackRock 2.5% 2.3% 14.4% 16.7% Financial Asset Management
(BUD) Anheuser-Busch InBev 2.6% 3.3% 13.4% 16.7% Consumer Defensive Alcohol
(VLP) Valero Energy Partners 2.8% 5.5% 11.0% 16.5% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
THO Thor Industries 1.6% 1.5% 15.0% 16.5% Consumer Discretionary Recreational Vehicles
(CCMP) Cabot Microelectronics 1.2% 1.4% 15.0% 16.4% Technology Semiconductors
(HP) Helmerich & Payne 4.1% 4.3% 12.0% 16.3% Energy Oil Service
(OTEX) Open Text 1.5% 1.7% 14.7% 16.4% Technology Business Applications
(WGP-OLD) Western Gas Equity Partners 3.6% 6.3% 10.0% 16.3% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(SHLX) Shell Midstream Partners 3.2% 6.1% 10.0% 16.1% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(CDW) CDW Corp 1.0% 1.0% 15.1% 16.1% Technology IT Distributor
CTAS Cintas 1.1% 0.8% 15.1% 15.9% Industrial Business Services
SPGI S&P Global 1.3% 1.0% 14.7% 15.7% Financial Capital Markets
ADP Automatic Data Processing 2.4% 2.1% 13.6% 15.7% Industrial Business Services
(ANDX) Andeavor Logistics LP 5.9% 9.6% 6.0% 15.6% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(LECO) Lincoln Electric Holdings 1.7% 1.8% 13.7% 15.5% Industrial Electric Machinery
NDSN Nordson 1.0% 0.9% 14.5% 15.4% Industrial Diversified Industrials
(CSL) Carlisle Companies 1.2% 1.3% 14.0% 15.3% Industrial Diversified Industrials
TROW T. Rowe Price 2.6% 2.4% 12.9% 15.3% Finance Asset Management
(CAKE) Cheesecake Factory 1.5% 2.0% 13.2% 15.2% Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
(AQN) Algonquin Power & Utilities 4.7% 5.2% 10.0% 15.2% Utilities Diversified Utilities
SHW Sherwin-Williams 1.1% 0.8% 14.3% 15.1% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
(DG) Dollar General 1.2% 1.2% 13.9% 15.1% Consumer Discretionary Retail
UNH UnitedHealth Group 1.6% 1.4% 13.6% 15.0% Healthcare Health Insurance
(IVZ) Invesco 3.2% 4.5% 10.5% 15.0% Finance Asset Management
(MO) Altria 4.0% 4.8% 10.1% 14.9% Consumer Defensive Tobacco
(QTS) QTS Realty Trust 3.1% 3.9% 11.0% 14.9% REIT Data Center REIT
(FDX) FedEx 0.6% 1.1% 13.8% 14.9% Industrial Shipping & Logistics
(MSFT) Microsoft 0.9% 1.7% 13.2% 14.9% Technology Software
EVR Evercore 2.0% 1.9% 13.0% 14.9% Finance Investment Banking & Brokerage
(OTCQX:IMBBY) Imperial Brands 5.6% 6.1% 8.8% 14.9% Consumer Defensive Tobacco
(TSCO) Tractor Supply Company 1.0% 1.6% 13.2% 14.8% Consumer Cyclical Specialty Retail
(WSM) Williams-Sonoma 2.4% 2.8% 12.0% 14.8% Consumer Discretionary Retail
(PSXP) Phillips 66 Partners 3.1% 5.7% 9.0% 14.7% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(BIP) Brookfield Infrastructure Partners 4.5% 4.6% 10.0% 14.6% Utility Diversified Utilities
(TXN) Texas Instruments 1.5% 2.2% 12.2% 14.4% Technology Semiconductors
DNKN Dunkin' Brands Group 2.2% 2.0% 12.4% 14.4% Consumer Discretionary Restaurants
(MDLZ) Mondelez International 1.7% 2.1% 12.3% 14.4% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(LEG) Leggett & Platt 3.0% 3.4% 11.0% 14.4% Consumer Cyclical Furniture
(ECL) Ecolab 1.1% 1.2% 13.2% 14.4% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
(HAS) Hasbro 2.6% 2.6% 11.7% 14.3% Consumer Cyclical Toys
(MWA) Mueller Water Products 0.9% 1.7% 12.6% 14.3% Industrial Water Infrastructure
(AY) Atlantica Yield 5.6% 6.1% 8.0% 14.1% YieldCo Renewable Energy YieldCo
BDX Becton, Dickinson & Company 1.7% 1.2% 13.0% 14.2% Healthcare Medical Equipment
OKE ONEOK 5.0% 4.5% 9.6% 14.1% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
TXRH Texas Roadhouse 1.8% 1.5% 12.6% 14.1% Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
(ENB) Enbridge Inc 3.5% 6.0% 8.0% 14.0% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
SYY Sysco 3.0% 2.1% 12.0% 14.1% Consumer Defensive Food Distributor
(ROST) Ross Stores 1.0% 1.0% 13.0% 14.0% Consumer Cyclical Retail
BA Boeing 2.4% 2.0% 12.0% 14.0% Industrial Aerospace & Defense
(CMI) Cummins 2.6% 3.3% 10.7% 14.0% Industrial Heavy Trucks & Machinery
CONE CyrusOne 3.3% 3.0% 11.0% 14.0% REIT Data Center REIT
(CVS) CVS Health 1.6% 3.0% 10.9% 13.9% Healthcare Pharmacy/Health Insurance
(AON) Aon PLC 1.1% 1.1% 12.8% 13.9% Financial Insurance Brokers
(WBA) Walgreens Boots Alliance 1.9% 2.8% 11.1% 13.9% Consumer Defensive Pharmacy
(PSX) Phillips 66 2.8% 2.9% 11.0% 13.9% Energy Refining
(ADM) Archer-Daniels Midland 2.6% 2.9% 11.0% 13.9% Consumer Defensive Farm Products
GWW W.W Grainger 2.0% 1.8% 12.0% 13.8% Industrial Industrial Distribution
DCI Donaldson Company 1.6% 1.7% 12.1% 13.8% Industrial Filtration Systems
(FBHS) Fortune Brands Home & Security 1.1% 1.5% 12.3% 13.8% Industrial Building Products
(OZRK) Bank of the Ozarks 1.5% 1.7% 12.0% 13.7% Financial Banking
(MMC) Marsh & McLennan Companies 2.0% 2.0% 11.7% 13.7% Finance Insurance Brokers
(OTC:TRSWF) Transalta Renewables 4.0% 7.6% 6.0% 13.6% Utility YieldCo
(KMI) Kinder Morgan 4.1% 4.5% 9.0% 13.5% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(MSA) MSA Safety Incorporated 2.3% 1.6% 12.0% 13.6% Industrial Safety Equipment
(CCL) Carnival 2.6% 3.5% 10.0% 13.5% Consumer Discretionary Cruise Line
(NDAQ) Nasdaq 1.8% 2.0% 11.5% 13.5% Finance Financial Exchanges & Data
CAT Caterpillar 3.0% 2.5% 10.9% 13.4% Industrial Farm & Construction Equipment
(BEP) Brookfield Renewable Partners 5.6% 6.4% 7.0% 13.4% YieldCo Renewable Energy
(COLD) Americold Realty Trust 3.0% 3.4% 10.0% 13.4% REIT Industrial REIT
NKE Nike 1.2% 1.0% 12.3% 13.3% Consumer Cyclical Apparel
(OSK) Oshkosh Corp 1.3% 1.4% 12.0% 13.4% Industrial Construction Machinery
(TTC) Toro Company 1.3% 1.3% 12.0% 13.3% Industrial Agricultural Equipment
AFG American Financial Group 1.5% 1.3% 12.0% 13.3% Finance Multi-Line Insurance
(DIS) Disney 1.6% 1.6% 11.7% 13.3% Consumer Cyclical Entertainment
(APOG) Apogee Enterprises 1.1% 1.3% 12.0% 13.3% Industrial Building Products
(OTCPK:EMRAF) Emera 4.3% 5.3% 8.0% 13.3% Utility Regulated Utility
(PFG) Principal Financial Group 2.9% 3.9% 9.4% 13.3% Financial Insurance
(AAN) Aaron's 0.3% 0.3% 13.0% 13.3% Consumer Discretionary Home Furnishing Retail
(APD) Air Products & Chemicals 2.4% 2.8% 10.4% 13.2% Industrial Industrial Gas
(ETN) Eaton Corp 3.1% 3.5% 9.7% 13.2% Industrial Diversified Industrials
(AAPL) Apple 0.9% 1.6% 11.6% 13.2% Technology Consumer Hardware
(INGR) Ingredion 2.0% 2.1% 11.0% 13.1% Consumer Defensive Agricultural Products
RSG Republic Services 2.7% 2.0% 11.1% 13.1% Industrial Environment & Facilities Services
(ROP) Roper Technologies 0.6% 0.6% 12.5% 13.1% Industrial Industrial Tech
(BLL) Ball Corp 0.8% 1.1% 12.0% 13.1% Basic Materials Metal & Glass Containers
(WHR) Whirlpool 2.2% 3.0% 10.0% 13.0% Consumer Discretionary Home Appliances
NOC Northrop Grumman 1.7% 1.6% 11.5% 13.1% Industrial Defense
SU Suncor Energy 2.9% 2.7% 10.3% 13.0% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(SNA) Snap-on 1.6% 2.0% 11.0% 13.0% Industrial Diversified Industrials
WM Waste Management 2.9% 1.7% 11.3% 13.0% Industrial Environment & Facilities Services
(TERP) TerraForm Power 6.0% 6.4% 6.5% 12.9% YieldCo Renewable Energy
GD General Dynamics 2.1% 2.0% 11.0% 13.0% Industrial Aerospace & Defense
SEIC SEI Investments 1.1% 0.9% 12.0% 12.9% Financial Asset Management
APTS Preferred Apartment Communities 6.7% 5.9% 7.0% 12.9% REIT Apartment REIT
ERIE Erie Indemnity 3.0% 2.8% 10.0% 12.8% Finance Insurance
(MPLX) MPLX 4.4% 7.3% 5.6% 12.9% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(HUBB) Hubbell Incorporated 2.3% 2.8% 10.0% 12.8% Industrial Electronic Components
MCO Moody's 1.4% 1.0% 11.8% 12.8% Finance Financial Exchanges & Data
(WSFS) WSFS Finance 0.7% 0.8% 12.0% 12.8% Finance Thrift & Mortgage Finance
(CASY) Casey's General Stores 0.9% 1.1% 11.7% 12.8% Consumer Defensive Grocery Stores
(COST) Costco 1.1% 1.1% 11.7% 12.8% Consumer Cyclical Retail
(TSN) Tyson Foods 1.1% 1.8% 11.0% 12.8% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(VFC) V.F Corp 2.0% 2.3% 10.5% 12.8% Consumer Cyclical Apparel
(TJX) TJX Companies 1.2% 1.6% 11.1% 12.7% Consumer Cyclical Retail
(TRP) TransCanada 3.9% 4.9% 7.7% 12.6% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(AOS) A. O. Smith 1.1% 1.2% 11.5% 12.7% Industrial Building Products
(TD) Toronto-Dominion Bank 3.4% 3.7% 9.0% 12.7% Financial Banking
LMT Lockheed Martin 3.0% 2.7% 10.0% 12.7% Industrial Defense
(SEP) Spectra Energy Partners 6.0% 8.5% 4.0% 12.5% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(CB) Chubb 2.2% 2.3% 10.3% 12.6% Finance Insurance
(MMM) 3M 2.5% 2.8% 9.8% 12.6% Industrial Diversified Industrials
ORI Old Republic International 4.3% 3.9% 8.6% 12.5% Finance Insurance
(LNC) Lincoln National Corp 1.6% 2.1% 10.4% 12.5% Financial Life Insurance
(DFS) Discover Financial Services 1.8% 2.0% 10.5% 12.5% Finance Consumer Finance
(EPD) Enterprise Products Partners 5.6% 6.2% 6.2% 12.4% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(IBM) IBM 3.4% 4.4% 8.0% 12.4% Technology IT Consulting
PH Parker-Hannifin 1.8% 1.9% 10.5% 12.4% Industrial Diversified Industrials
(ITW) Illinois Tool Works 2.1% 2.2% 10.2% 12.4% Industrial Diversified Industrials
(TU) Telus 4.1% 4.4% 7.9% 12.3% Telecom Wireless/Internet
(FLO) Flowers Food 2.8% 3.4% 9.0% 12.4% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(GIS) General Mills 3.1% 4.4% 8.0% 12.4% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(EPR) EPR Properties 6.1% 6.5% 5.8% 12.3% REIT Specialized REIT
TRNO Terreno Realty 2.9% 2.3% 10.0% 12.3% REIT Industrial REIT
(PRU) Prudential Financial 2.7% 3.8% 8.5% 12.3% Financial Insurance
(IFF) International Flavors & Fragrances 1.9% 2.2% 10.0% 12.2% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
JKHY Jack Henry & Associates 1.4% 1.1% 11.0% 12.1% Technology Data Processing & Outsourcing Solutions
MGRC McGrath Rentcorp 2.9% 2.1% 10.0% 12.1% Industrial Business Services
MKC McCormick & Company 2.0% 1.7% 10.3% 12.0% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(CE) Celanese Corp 1.7% 1.9% 10.1% 12.0% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
(GIL) Gildan Activewear 0.9% 1.6% 10.4% 12.0% Consumer Discretionary Apparel
(UBS) UBS Group 3.5% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% Finance Banks
(MDP) Meredith Corp 3.7% 3.9% 8.0% 11.9% Consumer Discretionary Publishing
(MRT) MedEquities Trust 7.4% 7.4% 4.6% 12.0% REIT Medical REIT
(FDS) FactSet Research Systems 1.2% 1.3% 10.7% 12.0% Finance Capital Markets
(BNS) Bank of Nova Scotia 3.8% 4.6% 7.4% 12.0% Finance Banking
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers 2.8% 2.5% 9.5% 12.0% Finance Regional Banks
(EIG) Employers Holdings 1.1% 2.0% 10.0% 12.0% Finance Insurance
(C) Citigroup 0.4% 1.9% 10.0% 11.9% Finance Banking
ACN Accenture 2.1% 1.6% 10.3% 11.9% Technology IT Consulting
(IRM) Iron Mountain 6.0% 6.6% 5.3% 11.9% REIT Storage REIT
CORR CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust 8.2% 7.9% 4.0% 11.9% REIT Infrastructure REIT
(SPG) Simon Property Group 3.2% 4.5% 7.3% 11.8% REIT Retail REIT
(PG) Procter & Gamble 3.1% 3.6% 8.2% 11.8% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
(SJM) J.M Smuckers 2.3% 2.8% 9.0% 11.8% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
RTN Raytheon 2.3% 1.8% 10.0% 11.8% Industrial Aerospace & Defense
(CNI) Canadian National Railway 1.6% 1.7% 10.0% 11.7% Industrial Railroads
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp 1.9% 1.7% 10.0% 11.7% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(HON) Honeywell International 2.0% 2.0% 9.6% 11.6% Industrial Diversified Industrials
NSA National Storage Affiliates 4.5% 3.7% 8.0% 11.7% REIT Storage REIT
FUN Cedar Fair 5.5% 5.5% 6.0% 11.5% Consumer Discretionary (Uses K1) Amusement Parks
(INTC) Intel 1.3% 2.3% 9.2% 11.5% Technology Semiconductors
(MMP) Magellan Midstream Partners 4.3% 5.5% 6.0% 11.5% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(NVS) Novartis 3.5% 3.9% 7.6% 11.5% Healthcare Pharmaceutical
(CLX) Clorox 2.7% 2.8% 8.6% 11.4% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
(NBHC) National Bank Holdings Corp 1.0% 1.4% 10.0% 11.4% Finance Regional Bank
WDFC WD-40 Company 1.8% 1.4% 10.0% 11.4% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
(UPS) UPS 2.9% 3.4% 8.0% 11.4% Industrial Air Freight & Logistics
AXP American Express 1.5% 1.4% 10.0% 11.4% Finance Consumer Finance
(MPW) Medical Properties Trust 6.6% 6.9% 4.4% 11.3% REIT Hospital REIT
(CSFL) CenterState Bank 0.6% 1.3% 10.0% 11.3% Finance Regional Bank
(HEP) Holly Energy Partners 8.0% 9.3% 2.0% 11.3% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(GLW) Corning 2.3% 2.6% 8.7% 11.3% Industrial Electronic Components
(HSY) Hershey 2.3% 2.7% 8.5% 11.2% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(OTCPK:CDUAF) Canadian Utilities LTD 3.0% 4.3% 7.0% 11.3% Utilities Diversified Utilities
BF.B Brown-Foreman 1.4% 1.3% 10.0% 11.3% Consumer Defensive Alcohol
(T) AT&T 4.9% 6.1% 5.1% 11.2% Telecom Wireless/Internet
(UL) Unilever 3.2% 3.4% 7.8% 11.2% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
(KO) Coca Cola 3.2% 3.5% 7.7% 11.2% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(D) Dominion Energy 3.7% 4.8% 6.4% 11.2% Utilities Diversified Utilities
MCD McDonald's 3.1% 2.5% 8.6% 11.1% Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
(SRE) Sempra Energy 2.8% 3.0% 8.1% 11.1% Utilities Diversified Utilities
SCL Stepan Company 1.2% 1.1% 10.0% 11.1% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
RLI RLI Corp 1.4% 1.3% 9.8% 11.1% Financial Insurance
(SKT) Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 4.7% 5.8% 5.3% 11.1% REIT Retail REIT
(PFE) Pfizer 3.5% 3.7% 7.4% 11.1% Healthcare Pharmaceuticals
PF Pinnacle Foods 2.4% 2.0% 9.1% 11.1% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(KMB) Kimberly-Clark 3.1% 3.7% 7.3% 11.0% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
(K) Kellogg's 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 11.0% Consumer Defensive Food
(XOM) Exxon Mobil 3.4% 4.0% 7.0% 11.0% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
STAG STAG Industrial 5.9% 5.1% 5.8% 10.9% REIT Industrial REIT
(GPC) Genuine Parts Company 2.7% 3.2% 7.6% 10.8% Industrial Auto Parts
KIM Kimco Realty Corp 7.0% 6.6% 4.1% 10.7% REIT Retail REIT
(PPG) PPG Industries 1.5% 1.7% 9.0% 10.7% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
(BAC) Bank of America 1.3% 1.7% 9.0% 10.7% Finance Banking
(CSCO) Cisco Systems 2.4% 3.1% 7.6% 10.7% Technology Communications Equipment
BMO Bank of Montreal 4.0% 3.7% 6.9% 10.6% Finance Banking
PNR Pentair 2.0% 1.7% 9% 10.7% Industrial Water Infrastructure
DLR Digital Realty Trust 4.7% 3.5% 7.1% 10.6% REIT Data Center REIT
CVX Chevron 3.9% 3.6% 7.0% 10.6% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(LYB) LyondellBasell 3.4% 3.7% 6.9% 10.6% Industrial Petrochemicals
(PM) Philip Morris International 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 10.5% Consumer Defensive Tobacco
NEE NextEra Energy 3.0% 2.6% 7.9% 10.5% Utilities Diversified Utilities
(CP) Canadian Pacific Railway 0.9% 1.1% 9.4% 10.5% Industrial Railroads
(BPMP) BP Midstream Partners 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 10.5% MLP Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
(JNJ) Johnson & Johnson 2.8% 2.9% 7.6% 10.5% Healthcare Diversified Medical
(BAM) Brookfield Asset Management 1.5% 1.5% 9.0% 10.5% Finance Asset Management
(TAP) Molson Coors Brewing Company 2.0% 2.3% 8.1% 10.4% Consumer Defensive Alcohol
(AFL) Aflac 2.4% 2.4% 8.0% 10.4% Finance Insurance
GRC Gorman-Rupp 1.5% 1.4% 9.0% 10.4% Industrial Pumps
SYK Stryker Corp 1.4% 1.1% 9.3% 10.4% Healthcare Healthcare Equipment
(PEP) Pepsi 3.0% 3.4% 7.0% 10.4% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
(PCAR) PACCAR 1.5% 1.8% 8.5% 10.3% Industrial Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks
(MAN) ManpowerGroup 1.6% 2.3% 8.0% 10.3% Industrial Human Resources & Employment Services
(RY) Royal Bank of Canada 3.8% 3.9% 6.2% 10.1% Finance Banking
(CL) Colgate-Palmolive 2.4% 2.6% 7.6% 10.2% Consumer Defensive Household & Personal Products
RPM RPM International 2.3% 2.1% 8.0% 10.1% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
(MDT) Medtronic 2.2% 2.3% 7.8% 10.1% Healthcare Medical Products
BMI Badger Meter 1.3% 1.1% 9.0% 10.1% Technology Electronic Components
(FTS) Fortis 4.0% 4.1% 6.0% 10.1% Utility Electric Utility
(TGT) Target 3.3% 3.3% 6.7% 10.0% Consumer Cyclical Retail
(FELE) Franklin Electric 1.0% 1.0% 9.0% 10.0% Industrial Pumps
(HRL) Hormel Foods 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 10.0% Consumer Defensive Food & Beverage
UGI UGI Corp 2.3% 1.9% 8.0% 9.9% Utility Gas Utility
USB US Bancorp 2.5% 2.4% 7.5% 9.9% Finance Regional Bank
SXT Sentient Technologies Corp 2.0% 1.8% 8.0% 9.8% Basic Materials Specialty Chemicals
EMR Emerson Electric 3.0% 2.8% 7.0% 9.8% Industrial Electrical Components
WMT Walmart 2.7% 2.5% 7.3% 9.8% Consumer Defensive Grocery Stores
SRCE 1st Source Corp 2.1% 1.7% 8.0% 9.7% Financial Regional Bank
CTRE CareTrust REIT 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 9.7% REIT Senior Housing REIT
O Realty Income 5.1% 4.7% 4.9% 9.6% REIT Retail REIT
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities 4.1% 3.7% 5.9% 9.6% REIT Apartment REIT
VTR Ventas 5.8% 5.3% 4.2% 9.5% REIT Healthcare REIT
NHI National Health Investors 5.8% 5.3% 4.2% 9.5% REIT Medical REIT
AVB AvalonBay Communities 3.9% 3.4% 6.1% 9.5% REIT Apartment REIT
CPT Camden Property Trust 3.9% 3.4% 6.1% 9.5% REIT Apartment REIT
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities 3.5% 2.9% 6.5% 9.4% REIT Medical Office REIT
MAIN Main Street Capital 8.0% 7.4% 2.0% 9.4% Finance BDC
WPC W.P Carey 6.7% 6.0% 3.3% 9.3% REIT Diversified REIT
DEO Diageo 3.0% 2.3% 7.0% 9.3% Consumer Defensive Alcohol
LTC LTC Properties 6.0% 5.2% 4.0% 9.2% REIT Healthcare REIT
FRT Federal Realty Trust 4.0% 3.2% 6.0% 9.2% REIT Retail REIT
EXR Extra Space Storage 4.3% 3.4% 5.7% 9.1% REIT Storage REIT
AMGN Amgen 4.0% 2.8% 6.0% 8.8% Medical Pharmaceuticals
NNN National Retail Properties 5.5% 4.2% 4.5% 8.7% REIT Retail REIT
PLD Prologis 4.2% 2.9% 5.8% 8.7% REIT Industrial REIT
JPM JPMorgan Chase 3.5% 2.2% 6.5% 8.7% Finance Banking
VZ Verizon 6.0% 4.6% 4.0% 8.6% Telecom Wireless/Internet
PSA Public Storage 4.9% 3.4% 5.1% 8.5% REIT Storage REIT
ESS Essex Property Trust 4.2% 3.1% 5.2% 8.3% REIT Apartment REIT
RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell 7.0% 5.2% 3.0% 8.2% Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Average 2.8% 3.1% 10.5% 13.5%

(Source: Management guidance, F.A.S.T. Graphs, GuruFocus, Simply Safe Dividends, Google Finance)

Note that the average yield, dividend growth, and total return potential are based on equal weighting of all 287 companies. If you weight by total return potential (as I plan to do), then the portfolio looks like this:

  • Yield: 3.1%
  • Projected Dividend Growth: 11.4%
  • Total Return Potential: 14.5%

Note that those figures include even stocks that are too overvalued to buy today. In reality, the yield and total return potential should be higher if you avoid overpaying.

Buys/Sells This Week

  • Bought $500 Lam Research Corp (LRCX) -starter position
  • Bought $1,300 EQT Midstream Partners (EQM)

Lam Research was the new stock of the week. EQT Midstream was the double down stock the week (to lower cost basis). The purpose of the new stock of the week is to put it on my radar and give me something to double down on if the price were to fall significantly lower.

Plan For The Next Week

The new stock of the week is MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX). MarketAxess specializes in electronic trading platforms for bonds. It commands 18% market share in bonds, and 86% in its core specialty of high grade bonds. The company benefits from rising amounts of debt issuances, and thanks to robust growth in FCF was able to boost its dividend 27% in early 2018 and 25% CAGR over the past five years. Analysts are expecting about 20% dividend growth over the next decade and thanks to a low payout ratio (FCF payout ratio of 10%) I consider that a reasonable projection.

The double down stock of the week remains EQM which is likely to generate close to 20% total returns over the next decade. The stock continues trading at under six times forward cash flow right now due to a large pessimism overhang involving EQT Corp.'s (EQT) midstream reorganization. I'm willing to potentially take both all the way to a 10% stake in my portfolio, with EQM getting top priority due to its superior valuation. As long as either EQM or EQGP is -5% or more from my average cost basis they will have top priority in terms of weekly double down purchases.

The Portfolio Today

(Source: Morningstar)

Note that due to reader requests for larger screen shots, going forward this image will only show my top 46 positions. However, given that this will represent about 90% to 95% of my capital, I consider it a good representation of the portfolio.

Dividend Risk Ratings

  • Low risk: High dividend safety and predictable growth for 5+ years, max portfolio size 10% (core holding, SWAN candidate).
  • Medium risk: Dividend safe and potentially growing for next two to three years, max portfolio size 3%.
  • High risk: Dividend safe and predictable for one year, max portfolio size 1.0%.

Safety Outlooks

  • Negative outlook: Fundamentals of industry and/or company are deteriorating, rising risk of safety downgrade. If it's a turnaround story, the turnaround is unlikely to succeed.
  • Stable outlook: Fundamentals are stable, or if in turnaround, the management plan seems likely to work. The risk of a safety downgrade is low.
  • Positive outlook: Fundamentals are strong and rising.

High-Risk Stocks

  • Uniti Group (NASDAQ:UNIT) - Negative outlook (turnaround outlook iffy)
  • New Residential Investment Corp. (NYSE:NRZ) - Positive outlook
  • Omega Healthcare Investors (NYSE:OHI) - Due to ongoing downturn in the SNF industry, stable outlook (confidence in turnaround plan)

Medium-Risk Stocks

  • Pattern Energy Group: Will be upgraded when the payout ratio declines under 85% - positive outlook
  • QTS Realty: Stable outlook
  • Medical Properties Trust: Due to long-term uncertainty surrounding medical REITs - positive outlook
  • EPR Properties: Due to exposure to cinemas (declining over time) - positive outlook
  • Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE:CLDT): Due to volatility of hotel cash flow - stable outlook
  • NRG Yield: Stable outlook
  • NetEase: Negative Outlook (medium risk due to variable dividend policy, gaming division is struggling)

Low-Risk Stocks

  • Enterprise Products Partners: Stable outlook
  • AT&T - Stable outlook
  • Tanger Factory Outlet Centers - Negative outlook
  • Brookfield Property Partners (NYSE:BPY) - Stable outlook
  • TransAlta Renewables (OTC:TRSWF) - Stable outlook
  • Simon Property Group - Stable outlook
  • Enbridge - Stable outlook
  • Realty Income (NYSE:O) - Stable outlook
  • Brookfield Infrastructure Partners - Positive outlook
  • Dominion Energy - Stable outlook
  • STORE Capital (NYSE:STOR) - Stable outlook
  • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) - Stable outlook
  • Telus - Stable outlook
  • Ventas - Stable outlook
  • Iron Mountain - Stable outlook
  • Spectra Energy Partners - Stable outlook
  • W.P. Carey - Stable outlook
  • NextEra Energy Partners (NYSEMKT:NEP) - Positive outlook
  • Altria - Stable outlook
  • Royal Bank Of Canada - Stable outlook
  • Bank of Nova Scotia - Stable outlook
  • Exxon Mobil - Stable outlook
  • AbbVie - Stable outlook
  • EQT Midstream Partners - Stable outlook
  • EQT GP Holdings - Stable outlook
  • MPLX - Stable outlook
  • Visa - Stable outlook
  • Home Depot - Stable outlook
  • Lowe's - Stable outlook
  • Noble Midstream Partners - Stable outlook
  • Starbucks - Stable outlook
  • Antero Midstream Partners - Stable outlook
  • Antero Midstream GP - Stable outlook
  • CNX Midstream Partners - Stable outlook
  • Dominion Midstream Partners - Negative outlook (liquidity trap for now)
  • Huntington Ingalls Industries - Stable outlook
  • Apple - Stable outlook
  • Silicon Motion Technology Corp. (SIMO) - Stable outlook
  • InterDigital - Stable outlook
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) - Positive outlook
  • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) - Stable outlook
  • Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) - Stable outlook
  • Lam Research (LRCX) - Stable outlook

My focus is on now on more diversification to crash-proof my portfolio against the next recession. This is why I'm buying one new stock per week (starter position). However, my primary focus is on lowering my cost basis in existing positions to take advantage of some of the best quality high-yield bargains you can find today.

My portfolio began with five stocks, all medium- to high-risk, in two sectors. Right now, I'm up to 57 stocks, mostly low- to medium-risk, in 10 sectors. By next week, I'll be up to 58 holdings in 10 sectors. The goal by year-end is around 80 stocks in 10 to 11 sectors. However, that goal will change if the 2/10 yield curve inverts and I'm forced to move to recession preparation mode. That would entail splitting my weekly cash between double down stocks and paying down margin in order to be at zero margin by the time the next recession hits.

My current long-term goal (subject to change) is to own 200 stocks, which I estimate will take about 10 years to accomplish (barring a bear market). It will likely take about 15 years before I can fully weight my portfolio by total return potential. Note that I may end up owning a different number of stocks, depending on how the portfolio returns bear out over time. In addition, because of how I weight my positions, the top 25 holdings will command the vast majority of my financial resources.

Top 10 Income Sources

(Source: Simply Safe Dividends)

The ultimate goal is to diversify enough to ensure no stock represents more than 5% of my income. That's to ensure that in a worst-case scenario in which one of my holdings' investment thesis breaks, my overall dividend income will be minimally affected.

However, because I'm currently doubling down so aggressively on my highest conviction buys it will take me a few years before I can balance out my portfolio income. Fortunately, my top two income sources are both low risk stocks, and PEGI is a medium risk stock.

(Source: Morningstar)

The portfolio has become far more diversified by stock style, especially compared to the early days, when it was pretty much 100% small-cap value. It's still heavily focused on value stocks, but in the coming weeks and months, growth will become a much bigger factor, given my total return focus. That should shift my portfolio more towards core and growth.

Over time, I plan to add some exposure to non-US holdings, mostly Canadian stocks, as well as some European ones like LyondellBasell and Unilever. Of course, the overall international exposure will be rather limited, because I only own stocks with a history of stable or rising dividends. The variable-pay nature of most foreign dividend stocks means they don't fit my needs. Only in rare exception, such as very fast-growing names like NetEase, will I own a variable-pay dividend stock.

Fortunately, over time, owning many blue-chip multinationals will still mean I'm benefiting from an international dividend empire. For example, CM, RY, and BNS have large overseas and emerging market exposure. Meanwhile, future Dividend Aristocrat additions like PG, KO, and PEP also do a lot of business overseas.

Once we experience a market crash, I'll be able to further diversify by style and market cap when I add numerous growth stocks and blue chips to the portfolio.

(Source: Morningstar)

My portfolio is currently made up of three core sectors, all currently highly rate-sensitive (I'm okay with that, since rate sensitivity is a short-term phenomenon). It also remains highly focused on hard assets and high-yield stocks, because of my dedication to buying the best undervalued high total return potential stocks. Today that means mostly MLPs and midstream stocks.

(Source: Simply Safe Dividends)

In the future I plan to add more utilities to help build up the defensive side of my portfolio. The utilities I'll be buying include:

  • NextEra Energy (NEE)
  • Brookfield Renewable Partners
  • TerraForm Power
  • Atlantica Yield
  • American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP)
  • Fortis
  • DTE Energy (NYSE:DTE)
  • Southern Company (NYSE:SO)
  • AES Corp. (AES)
  • Canadian Utilities LTD (OTCPK:CDUAF)

However, since I'm adding in order of highest to lowest total return potential, I won't be adding most of these utilities for many months. That coincides with the low probability of a recession starting within the next two years.

(Source: Simply Safe Dividends)

As I continue adding fast-growing dividend stocks, my average dividend growth rate has been steadily climbing. Since I switched to a focus on total return weighting versus yield, the average 5-year dividend growth rate is up from 8.9% to 11.3%. My ongoing purchases of EQT Midstream will continue increasing this figure for the next few weeks. After that continued additions of fast growing and undervalued MLPs will continue boosting the growth rate to a peak of 13% to 15%.

Projected Portfolio Dividends Over Time

Time Frame

Inflation-Adjusted Total Annual Portfolio Dividends

5 years

$16,093

10 years

$25,219

15 years

$39,521

20 years

$61,932

25 years

$97,051

30 years

$152,086

40 years

$373,476

50 years

$917,942

100 years

$81,903,580

(Sources: Simply Safe Dividends, Dave Ramsey Investment Calculator, Morningstar)

Keep in mind that this table only takes into account organic (stock-level) dividend growth. It doesn't consider fresh savings I'm adding over time, nor that I reinvest my dividends. In fact, at my current savings rate, I estimate that within 10 years, I'll hit $100,000 per year in net dividends.

Still, it's an impressive thing to see just how powerful compounding can be, especially since these figures are in today's purchasing power (inflation-adjusted). I use an 11.4% long-term dividend growth estimate and a 2.0% inflation estimate. The 11.4% is the projected long-term dividend growth from the master watchlist, weighted by total return potential, since that is ultimately what my portfolio will end up becoming.

Over time, as I diversify my portfolio, the yield will fall to about 3-4%. But the dividend growth rate should rise to about 9-10%. Ultimately, the goal is to build a highly diversified, low-risk, high-yielding portfolio with strong enough dividend growth to achieve 10-11% inflation-adjusted total returns.

For perspective, the S&P 500's 20-year median annual dividend growth rate has been 6.2%. So, the goal is to about double the market's yield, with about 3-4% faster dividend growth. Since 1871, the S&P 500 has generated annual total returns of 9.1%. The market's historical inflation-adjusted total return has been 7.0%.

Thus, the idea is to prove that a high-yield dividend growth portfolio can easily beat the market over time. That is, if the individual holdings are all above average or excellent quality.

Portfolio Statistics

  • Holdings: 57
  • Portfolio Size: $173,803 (all time record high)
  • Equity: $149,454 (all time record high)
  • Remaining Margin Buying Power: $756,927
  • Margin Used: $24,349
  • Debt/Equity: 0.16
  • Leverage Ratio: 16%
  • Dividends/Margin Interest Ratio: 12.3
  • Distance To Margin Call: 79.7%
  • Current Margin Rate: 3.43%
  • Yield: 5.9%
  • Yield On Cost: 6.1%
  • Yield On Equity Cost (net yield on cash I have invested): 6.5%
  • Cumulative Time Weighted Total Return Since Inception (since September 8, 2017): 1.1%
  • Cumulative Unlevered Total Return Since Inception: 5.3%
  • Year-to-Date Unlevered Total Return: 2.2%
  • Annualized Unlevered Total Return (YTD 2018): 4.4%
  • Unrealized Capital Gains (current holdings): $5,067 (+3.0%)
  • Cumulative Dividends Received (including accrued dividends): $9,579
  • Annual Dividends: $10,270
  • Annual Interest: $835
  • Annual Net Dividends: $9,435
  • Monthly Average Net Dividends: $786
  • Daily Average Net Dividends (my business empire never sleeps): $25.85

(Source: Simply Safe Dividends)

  • Portfolio Beta (volatility relative to S&P 500): 0.85
  • Projected Long-Term Dividend Growth: 11.4%
  • Projected Annual Unlevered Total Return: 14.5%
  • Projected Net Levered Annual Total Return: 17.4% (assuming long-term average leverage of 25%, 3% average margin rate)
  • Long-Term Net Levered Annual Total Return Goal: 16.0%

10 Worst-Performing Positions

Stock Loss Cost Basis
SBUX -16.1% $58.35
AQN -13.1% $11.10
DM -10.6% $15.11
CM -10.5% $98.23
BPY -10.0% $21.73
EQM -9.9% $57.57
BNS -9.0% $62.98
MO -8.6% $63.77
EQGP -7.0% $25.46
PEGI -6.4% $20.39

(Source: Interactive Brokers)

10 Best-Performing Positions

Stock Gain Cost Basis
UNIT 31.6% $16.19
QTS 21.6% $34.38
NEP 21.1% $38.91
CLDT 18.5% $18.36
CNXM 18.4% $16.42
EPR 18.2% $56.31
MPW 17.3% $12.31
NBLX 16.8% $44.71
BREUF 15.4% $16.50
OHI 14.4% $28.04

(Source: Interactive Brokers)

Bottom Line: While Economic Risks Remain For Now The Data Is Firmly Bullish

Don't get me wrong, I'm not minimizing the risks of escalating trade conflicts or the Federal Reserve's terrible track record for hiking the economy into recession. However, the best we can do is follow the data as it comes in and make logical, disciplined, and wise decisions based on the best information we have.

For now, that information remains almost entirely bullish with no indications that any of the risks the market is worried about are actually harming the economy. That may change over the coming months and if it does I'll make sure to let you know in these updates (especially the economic growth/recession risk section).

I'll also continue to adapt my own weekly investing strategy to the data. That doesn't mean market timing by any means. Rather I'll simply shift my capital allocation strategy as conditions require to optimize the chances of reaching my long-term financial goals.

In the coming weeks I'll wargame a future recession and bear market, using historical analysis to give you an idea of how bad things are likely to get. I'll also highlight the top sectors to own during and in preparation for a recession, including the best individual stocks in each sector worth buying at that time.

Disclosure: I am/we are long EPD, PEGI, CNXM, MPW, MPLX, BREUF, EQM, AM, OHI, T, O, TRSWF, IRM, SKT, BPY, VTR, STOR, BIP, SPG, UNIT, ENB, NRZ, EQGP, TU, CM, AQN, D, AMGP, SEP, QTS, EPR, WPC, NEP, MO, BNS, RY, ABBV, V, HD, LOW, DM, NYLD, SBUX, NBLX, NTES, HII, AAPL, SIMO, NVDA, PXD, COG, LRCX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.