Week 29 Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

by: JD Henning

Publishing 2 of the 8 new Week 29 breakout stocks that are available only to subscribers with better than 10% short-term upside potential.

Performance Results for the 1-week YTD and total returns are significantly outperforming S&P 500 with 1-week YTD +34.52% and total return over 66 weeks up +75.71%.

The Momentum Gauges ended the week with signals at medium levels of positive momentum (34) and low negative momentum (22) still similar conditions to last week.

Top Gainers last four weeks: MEIP +23.12%, BVX +23.21%, GEMP +17.45%, CVEO +16.33%, AIRG +13.25%, QTNT +11.95%, TST +9.18%, LXU +17.54%, VLRS +7.48%.

Continuing from last year now makes it 55 out of 66 trading weeks (83.33%) with at least one stock move 10% or greater within a 4 or 5 day trading week.

Breakout Forecast Selections for Week 29:

Market conditions continue with medium breakout momentum. The positive momentum gauge continues with another full week in yellow (medium) at 34 down from a value of 46 at the end of the prior week. The negative momentum gauge is unchanged from a value of 22 last week indicating medium conditions of negative breakdowns. The all time low for the positive momentum selection gauge is 8 during week 14 of 2018 and all time high is 120 during August 2017. Last published report: Week 28 Breakout Forecast

My momentum gauges are based on the count of the momentum stocks screened as either positive accelerating and negative accelerating stocks based on my research algorithm. The combination of the two different types of momentum categories screened by my algorithm may help validate the quality of the overall market momentum strength.

Total Return Chart: +75.71%

The Total Return Chart reflects total return of all stocks in the weekly portfolio.

Market fund flow update July 13 from ETF.com:

New highs in the U.S. stock market encouraged investors to put money to work in ETFs this week. On net, $8.5 billion entered U.S.-listed ETFs during the week ending Thursday, July 12, according to the latest data from FactSet. That pushed year-to-date inflows up to $131.2 billion.

~ ETF.com

This week I have selected 8 breakout stocks from the following sectors: 2 basic materials and 6 healthcare.

The two sample selections from the eight positive momentum stocks for this week include:

  1. Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) - Healthcare / Biotechnology
  2. Amarin Corporation (AMRN) - Healthcare / Biotechnology

Thumbnail images of the Breakout Forecast Portfolio Week 29

These stocks are not necessarily recommended for long term buy/hold unless you are comfortable with very large price swings. As I continue to observe, strong momentum events usually last from one to three weeks and may encounter some substantial decline before returning again to positive gains.

These are the most volatile selections I offer from among all the different Value & Momentum portfolios. Proposed entry points for each of the selected stocks are as close to the highlighted prices in yellow on the charts at market open. All stocks are selected for high short-term breakout results over one to three weeks.

Breakout Stock Selections for Week 29

Note: all breakout stocks are selected based on my algorithm to increase the frequency of 10% gains within a short period of time. Price targets are estimated through an unrelated technical charting process for those who are looking for estimated exit points, however it is possible the momentum in these selections may move well beyond the initial target.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) - Healthcare / Biotechnology Price Target: 3.80

Jul-11-18 11:05AM Achillion's 3rd Factor D Inhibitor Enters Clinical Studies Zacks
Jul-10-18 06:05AM Achillion Initiates Phase I First-in-Human Study of ACH-5548, a Third Oral Small Molecule Inhibitor of Complement Factor D GlobeNewswire
Jul-02-18 07:05AM Breakfast Technical Briefing on Amarin and Three Other Additional Biotech Stocks ACCESSWIRE

Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes small molecule drug therapies for immune system disorders in the United States. Its lead drug candidate includes ACH-4471, an inhibitor of factor D that is Phase II clinical trials for patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and C3 glomerulopathy.

Amarin Corporation (AMRN) - Healthcare / Biotechnology Price Target: 3.50

Jul-13-18 07:31AM 3 Top Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now Motley Fool
Jul-11-18 10:00AM Is Now the Perfect Time to Buy Amarin Corporation Stock? Motley Fool
Jul-02-18 07:05AM Breakfast Technical Briefing on Amarin and Three Other Additional Biotech Stocks ACCESSWIRE

Amarin Corporation plc, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases in the United States. The company's lead product is Vascepa, a prescription-only omega-3 fatty acid capsule, used as an adjunct to diet for reducing triglyceride levels in adult patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia.

2018 Chart: +34.52% YTD

Cumulative return with 1-Week holding period.

Breakout Forecast Performance Results

Total Breakout portfolio returns from prior weeks are listed below to illustrate the rolling returns of prior top performers and total portfolio returns:

Breakout Forecast Portfolio gains past 5 weeks / Top 3 Performing Stocks
Week 23 +8.13% / (MEIP) +23.12% (GEMP) +17.45% (BVX) +23.21%
Week 22 -3.59% / (MNTX) +6.74% (VSTO) +5.60% (TXMD) +5.03%
Week 21 +5.12% / (GALT) +43.64% (VTL) +17.19% (RUBI) +32.14%
Week 20 -3.82% / (NVTA) +21.55% (ARTX) +9.51% (KTOS) +10.53%
Week 19 +27.87% /(MRNS) +64.78% (QTNT) +67.97% (GEOS) 30.86%

*The most current weekly portfolio results (including all the value and forensic portfolios) are available to subscribers HERE.

A detailed holding period analysis for Q1 2018 sampled Breakout Stocks is available here for review: Value & Momentum Breakout Stock Returns For Q1 2018

Long Term Portfolio Returns

As a reminder of the other longer term portfolios being tracked and updated regularly, here are the returns through Week 28. The Premium Portfolio is an actively managed trading portfolio exclusively for members. The Original July Forensic portfolios both Negative and Positive are reaching their full one year returns the end of this month. The Russell 3000 anomaly portfolio is the new annual selection starting in July, with last year's annual return of 39.92%.

Planned Portfolio Report Schedule*

The new Piotroski-Graham enhanced value portfolio has been released for July and can be found HERE as part of the alternating formation schedule with the Forensic portfolios as shown below. The annual Russell 3000 anomaly selections for 2018/19 have also just be released and can be found HERE.

* subject to changes as life unfolds

Please click the "Follow" button at the top of the page to enjoy free updates on the progress of each of the different portfolios I offer that are outperforming the S&P 500 in each of their respective time periods.

To Subscribe to Value & Momentum Breakouts, click on the link HERE.

I think these breakout stocks will serve you well in Week 28 and beyond. I hope you all do well with these stocks and always diversify to minimize some of the market risks. All the very best, and have a great week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS

Disclosure: I am/we are long JT, KEM, LABU, UBIO.. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.