The Second Longest Recovery

Constantin Gurdgiev profile picture
Constantin Gurdgiev
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One chart never ceased to amaze me - the one that shows just how unimpressive the current "second longest in modern history" recovery (and only 9 months shy of it being the "first longest") has been, and just how sticky the adverse shocks/impacts can be in modern crises that can be best described by the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) environment:

The fact that the current recovery cycle has been weak is only one part of the story, however, that would be less worrying if not for the second part. Namely, that almost every successive recovery cycle in the past three decades has been weaker than the previous one.

Here is a handy summary of the recovery cycles in the last four recessions based on annual data, for real GDP and real GDP PPP-adjusted:

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Constantin Gurdgiev profile picture
1.04K Followers
I lecture in Finance in Trinity College, Dublin and at Monterey Institute for International Studies (California) and hold a number of non-Executive and advisory positions. I am research-active in macroeconomics and finance, as well as economic policy analysis and my academic record can be found on the designated section of my blog http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/. In the past, I served as the Head of Research and Partner with St Columbanus AG, Head of Macroeconomics (Institute for Business Value, IBM), Director of Research (NCB Stockbrokers), Group Editor and Director (Business and Finance Publications). All opinions expressed are my own and do not reflect the views or positions of any of my past, present or future employers. Potential conflicts of interest are highlighted in the posts wherever I can reasonably foresee such arising.
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