Bitcoin - $16,000 To $28,000 By Year-End

Jul. 17, 2018 9:47 AM ETBitcoin USD (BTC-USD), COIN-OLD, GBTCGLD2.69K Comments
Michael Bryant profile picture
Michael Bryant


  • The odds seem to favor a higher bitcoin price.
  • Low could be $3,410, but average cost of mining and fair value based on transaction volume and vendors is about $6,000.
  • Most common end of the year range is $16,000 to $28,000.

Breakout! Or is it? Bitcoin (BTC-USD) (COIN) (OTC:GBTC) seems to have finally hit bottom and broken out from its six-month downtrend. I have written four bitcoin articles with the first, third, and fourth including many experimental pricing models.

Most of the models seem to point to higher prices in the long run. The third article was what I predicted to be the maximum price of bitcoin based on data from December 10, 2017. But the maximum price could be anywhere between 2021 and 2027. What about the short term? After surging nearly 1300% in 2017, bitcoin peaked at $19,343 on Sunday, December 17, 2017 and bottomed 69.2% lower at $5,957 early Tuesday, February 6, 2018.

It seemed to be making a comeback, surging to $11,480 on March 4 before plunging again to $6,463 on April 1. It then bounced up to $9,827 on May 5 but failed to break its downward trend and plunged to $5,941 on June 22. After briefly moving higher, bitcoin finally broke support and fell to $5,848.28 on June 28, and now appears to be making a comeback. Was this finally the bottom, or will bitcoin fall more? What about its value based on transaction volume and vendors? Is it worthwhile to hold bitcoin? I provide updated models, an estimated maximum value, and an updated Elliot Wave graph.

Was this finally the bottom?

Based on the technicals, it probably was the bottom, at least in the short run. In the early hours of June 24, bitcoin bottomed at exactly $5,826 twice and at $5,796 about 6 hours later before moving higher. It retested the 5,800 level on June 28

This article was written by

Michael Bryant profile picture
Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University. Freelance writerFor short-term ideas about big movers, follow my StockTalks. But please note I am not the best short term stock picker. I am 7-0-1 in the long term, but 0-3 in the short term. Recommended authors:Micheal Filloon (oil shale/short term and long term)Brad Thomas (REIT short and long term)Taylor Dart (mainly gold short and long term also swing/trend trader)Ian Bezek (long term trader and new ideas)Over the last 12 years, I am 7-4-1. I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively, and down 39%, 39%, 79% from 2008-2010 respectively. In 2011, I was flat, but some ill-timed trades (should have held AG) caused a loss of 17% and 14% in 2012 and 2013. Note: gains and losses include transaction costs. 2009 and 2010, I traded frequently, adding up transaction costs. That is why I favor long term holding over short term trading.I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.Being a chemistry graduate, I tend to focus of the drug, medical, biotech, and chemical industries. So far, I wrote about 5 medical companies (RPC, OREX, KV.A, PLX, & XOMA). OREX and KV.A were right on target, though KV.A has fallen back hard after reaching their highs, which surprised me. PLX was half right: it did get a negative letter from the FDA, but the options strategy was wrong. For RPC, so far, I have been wrong, and exited my position in mid-May. XOMA also has fallen since I wrote about it.However, I also cover diverse stocks, from BIDU to NCT. Ignoring other industries is a big mistake. I look for stocks I find undervalued on both a value perspective and a growth perspective, but placing more emphasis on growth. I combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentals only tell you part of the story.Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. Their analysis is good, but don't take everything they say. Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.Oh, and I invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.Current holdings:O (low risk/medium reward)DLR (low risk/medium reward)RDS.B (low risk/medium reward)OKE (medium risk/medium reward)CGC (medium risk/high reward)GBTC (medium risk/high reward)MMNFF (medium risk/high reward)BTCS (high risk/high reward)BTSC (high risk/high reward)MCOA (high risk/high reward)MGTI (high risk/very high reward)HVBTF (high risk/very high reward)XXII (high risk/very high reward)RGSE (very very high risk/high/if any reward)SUNEQ (bankrupt/no reward)Watch list:ROK (medium risk/medium reward)AG (medium risk/medium reward)EXK (medium risk/medium reward)GTIM (medium risk/high reward) BOJA (medium risk/high reward)SWKS (medium risk/high reward)JAZZ (medium risk/high reward)NFLX (medium risk/high reward)LVS (medium risk/high reward)SAM (medium risk/high reward)CMG (medium risk/high reward)ZNH (medium risk/high reward)RDY (medium risk/high reward)NVDA (low risk/high reward)AVGO (low risk/medium reward)CF (low risk/high reward)TTM (low risk/high reward)NVO (low risk/high reward)BIDU (low risk/high reward)PCLN (low risk/high reward)CLF (low risk/medium reward)AAPL (low risk/medium reward)GOOG (low risk/medium reward)TEVA (low risk/medium reward)GOL (low risk/medium reward)CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock

Disclosure: I am/we are long GBTC, MGTI, HVBTF, BTSC, BTCS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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