Here are the daily charts and the key levels for the gold, commodities and dollar exchange-traded funds.
The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and are said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The Gold ETF ($116.28 on July 17) is down 6% year to date and its weekly chart is negative but oversold with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $119.72 and moved below its 200-week simple moving average this week at $117.76.
The daily chart for the gold ETF shows that GLD has been below a ‘death cross’ since June 21 which indicated that lower prices lie ahead. A ‘death cross’ occurs when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day simple moving average and these levels are now $121.20 and $123.35, respectively. My quarterly and semiannual value levels are below the chart at $113.60 and $103.62, respectively. The horizontal line is my monthly risky level of $125.59.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly and semiannual value levels of $113.60 and $103.62, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly risky level of $125.59.
The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)
The Commodities ETF ($16.79 on July 17) is up 3.1% year to date with a negative week chart with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average of $17.33 and slipping just below just below its 200-week simple moving average which is the ‘reversion to the mean’ at $16.91.
The daily chart for the commodity ETF shows the ticker below the 50-day simple moving average of $17.54 and trending towards its 200-day simple moving average at $16.53 with my quarterly and annual value levels of $16.35 and $16.20, respectively. My monthly risky level is above the chart at $18.45.
The weekly chart for Nymex crude oil will be downgraded to negative this week if the nearby futures contract ends this week below its five-week modified moving average of $69.87 with the 200-week simple moving average at $52.42. My annual value level of $63.81 was tested on June 18 with my third quarter pivot of $68.14 and my risky level for June at $77.07 versus the high of $75.27 set on July 3.
Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my quarterly and annual pivots of $16.35 and $16.20, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength my monthly risky level of $18.45.
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)
The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
The Dollar ETF ($25.07 on July 17) is up 4.3% year to date and has a positive but overbought weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $24.84 and above its 200-week simple moving average of $84.84.
The daily chart for the bullish dollar ETF shows the ticker above three horizontal lines which are my quarterly, annual and monthly value levels of $24.84, $24.18 and $23.76, respectively. Above the chart is my semiannual risky level of $28.65. The chart shows that a ‘golden cross’ was confirmed on May 31 when the 50-day simple moving average rose above the 200-day simple moving average indicating that higher prices lie ahead. These moving averages are now at $24.80 and $24.15, respectively.
Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly, annual and monthly value levels of $24.84, $24.18 and $23.76, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky level of $28.65.
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