Breakout Forecast Selections for Week 30:
Market conditions continue with low breakout momentum. The positive momentum gauge continues to decline into the red at 27 down from a value of 34 at the end of the prior week. These low momentum conditions signal a reduction in momentum selection reliability - be cautious.
The negative momentum gauge also declined from a value of 22 last week to a low value of 18 for negative momentum. The all time low for the positive momentum selection gauge is 8 during week 14 of 2018 and all time high is 120 during August 2017. Last published report: Week 29 Breakout Forecast
My momentum gauges are based on the count of the momentum stocks screened as either positive accelerating and negative accelerating stocks based on my research algorithm. The combination of the two different types of momentum categories screened by my algorithm may help validate the quality of the overall market momentum strength.
Total Return Chart: +70.94%
Market fund flow update July 20 from ETF.com:
A continued rally in the U.S. stock market helped fuel solid inflows for ETFs this week. In total, $6.1 billion flowed into U.S.-listed ETFs during the week-ending Thursday, July 19, bringing year-to-date inflows to $137.1 billion.
This week I have selected 8 breakout stocks from the following sectors: 1 financial, 1 technology, 1 industrial goods and 5 healthcare.
The two sample selections from the eight positive momentum stocks for this week include:
- Ceragon Networks (CRNT) - Technology / Communication Equipment
- TransEnterix (TRXC) - Healthcare / Medical Instruments & Supplies
Thumbnail images of the Breakout Forecast Portfolio Week 30 Caution: These stocks are not necessarily recommended for long term buy/hold unless you are comfortable with very large price swings. As I continue to observe, strong momentum events usually last from one to three weeks and may encounter some substantial decline before returning again to positive gains.
Note: These are the most volatile selections I offer from among all the different Value & Momentum portfolios. Proposed entry points for each of the selected stocks are as close to the highlighted prices in yellow on the charts at market open. All stocks are selected for high short-term breakout results over one to three weeks.
Breakout Stock Selections for Week 30
Note: all breakout stocks are selected based on my algorithm to increase the frequency of 10% gains within a short period of time. Price targets are estimated through an unrelated technical charting process for those who are looking for estimated exit points, however it is possible the momentum in these selections may move well beyond the initial target.
Ceragon Networks (CRNT) - Technology / Communication Equipment Price Target: 4.40
|Jul-06-18 09:00AM||Ceragon Networks® Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results Scheduled for Release on August 6, 2018 PR Newswire|
|Jul-05-18 07:45AM||BlackBerry and Three Additional Stocks Under Scanner in the Communication Equipment Space ACCESSWIRE|
|Jun-24-18 10:58AM||What Does Ceragon Networks Ltds (NASDAQ:CRNT) Share Price Indicate? Simply Wall St.|
Ceragon Networks Ltd. provides wireless backhaul solutions that enable cellular operators and other wireless service providers to deliver voice and data services worldwide. Its wireless backhaul solutions use microwave radio technology to transfer telecommunication traffic between base stations, small sells, and the core of the service provider's network.
TransEnterix (TRXC) - Healthcare / Medical Instruments & Supplies Price Target: 6.00
|Jul-12-18 07:25AM||Free Stock Performance Review on TransEnterix and Three Additional Medical Supplies Stocks ACCESSWIRE|
|Jul-02-18 06:55AM||TransEnterix Provides Corporate Update Business Wire|
|Jun-25-18 06:55AM||TransEnterix, Inc. to Join the Russell 2000® Index Business Wire|
TransEnterix, Inc., a medical device company, engages in the research, development, and sale of medical device robotics to enhance minimally invasive surgery. The company offers Senhance System, a multi-port robotic surgery system, which allows up to four arms to control robotic instruments and a camera in Europe. It also develops SurgiBot System, a single-port system robotically enhanced laparoscopic surgical platform.
2018 Chart: +29.75% YTD
Cumulative return with 1-Week holding period.
Breakout Forecast Performance Results
Total Breakout portfolio returns from prior weeks are listed below to illustrate the rolling returns of prior top performers and total portfolio returns:
|Breakout Forecast||Portfolio gains past 5 weeks / Top 3 Performing Stocks|
|Week 25||-10.89% / (AIRG) +13.15% (QTNT) +8.44% (MOBL) +7.45%|
|Week 23||+5.04% / (BVX) +25.12% (MEIP) +15.61% (GEMP) +15.40%|
|Week 22||-4.77% / (BPI) +11.80% (TXMD) +2.70% (MNTX) +2.66%|
|Week 21||+4.43% / (RUBI) +37.30% (VTL) +32.03% (GALT) +23.25%|
|Week 20||-4.09% / (NVTA) +23.31% (KTOS) +15.23% (ARTX) +9.51%|
*The most current weekly portfolio results (including all the value and forensic portfolios) are available to subscribers HERE.
A detailed holding period analysis for Q1 2018 sampled Breakout Stocks is available here for review: Value & Momentum Breakout Stock Returns For Q1 2018
Long Term Portfolio Returns
As a reminder of the other longer term portfolios being tracked and updated regularly, here are the returns through Week 28. The Premium Portfolio is an actively managed trading portfolio exclusively for members. The Original July Forensic portfolios both Negative and Positive are reaching their full one year returns the end of this month. The Russell 3000 anomaly portfolio is the new annual selection starting in July, with last year's annual return of 39.92%.
Planned Portfolio Report Schedule*
The new Piotroski-Graham enhanced value portfolio has been released for July and can be found HERE as part of the alternating formation schedule with the Forensic portfolios as shown below. The annual Russell 3000 anomaly selections for 2018/19 have also just be released and can be found HERE.
Please click the "Follow" button at the top of the page to enjoy free updates and select real-time alerts if you want the most timely updates on the progress of each of the different portfolios I offer that are outperforming the S&P 500 in each of their respective time periods.
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I think these breakout stocks will serve you well in Week 30 and beyond. I hope you all do well with these stocks and always diversify to minimize some of the market risks. All the very best, and have a great week of trading!
JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS
Disclosure: I am/we are long ACHN, AEZS, AKTS, ARDX, DRRX, JT, KEM, LONE, LOPE, MU, NGVC, NSTG, PIRS, SENS, STAA, TXMD, UMRX, UPL, LABU, UBIO... I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.