Earnings season for 2018-Q3 is off to a positive start, and with the S&P 500 now just 2% away from setting new records, investors have shifted a portion of their forward-looking attention away from 2019-Q1 to focus on the current quarter.
At least, that's one interpretation that explains what we're seeing in the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart for the S&P 500.
Assuming that it is 2018-Q3 that they're focusing upon, it looks like investors are placing about 25% of their attention on 2018-Q3 and about 75% on the more distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting today's stock prices.
The main question for the market going forward is to what extent might the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff wars negatively affect the business outlooks of traditional S&P 500 firms and to what extent might the updated outlooks of the index' biggest tech firms offset that impact.
So, the upcoming fourth week of July 2018 could be a week with a lot of market-moving news. Unlike last week, which was pretty uneventful where moving the market was concerned...
Monday, July 16, 2018
- Oil's 4 percent tumble weighs on energy shares; banks rally
- Fed's Kashkari, citing yield curve, wants rate hike pause
- S&P 500 dips as energy shares fall; Netflix tumbles late after results
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
- Oil steadies on U.S. stockpile forecasts, Venezuela worries
- Fed's Powell: Years of strong jobs, low inflation still ahead
- Fed's George sees 'excellent' economy, wants more rate hikes
- Wall St. climbs on Powell comments, earnings
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
- Oil rises on bullish demand signals, even as U.S. stockpiles grow
- S&P 500 climbs to over five-month high on strong earnings
Thursday, July 19, 2018
- Brent slips as focus returns to oversupply
- Trump criticizes Federal Reserve interest rate policy despite strong economy
- U.S. stocks fall on sour earnings, trade fears
Friday, July 20, 2018
- Oil strengthens as dollar slips to four-day low
- Trump threatens tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese imports
- Wall Street slips as trade worries dampen upbeat earnings
For more background, Barry Ritholtz has summarized the top six positives and negatives for markets and economics news in Week 3 of July 2018.