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U.S. And World Oil Production And Exxon Mobil Outlook


Here are the latest oil production numbers from the EIA. All data is in thousand barrels per day unless otherwise noted.

The USA through May 2018. The upward surge has stalled for the last two months. US production was down 30,000 bpd in May.

It is a little astonishing how close the Texas chart resembles the USA chart. Texas is, by far, the USA's largest producer. As Texas goes, so goes the USA. Texas production was up 20,000 bpd in May.

North Dakota production has increased significantly in the last two months. They were up 67,000 bpd in April and up another 25,000 bpd in May.

Gulf of Mexico production was down 99,000 bpd in April and down another 75,000 bpd in May.

Alaska was down only 1,000 bpd in May but that was 12,000 bpd lower than last May. They are now entering the maintenance season. Expect huge drops in June and July.

The EIA data in this chart is through April and the National Energy Board data is estimated through December 2018. The EIA data is usually lower than the NEB data but they both agree on April production.

World crude oil production was up 326,000 bpd in April.

Non-OPEC production reached a new peak in April, up 405,000 bpd to 47,159,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Canada, up 317,000 and the U.K., up 111,000 bpd.

Here I am adding a few charts and comments from Exxon Mobil's (XOM) 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Their text is in italics. Any bold in their text is mine.

Technology improvements lead to wind, solar, and biofuels increasing, with a combined growth of about 5 percent per year
• Non-fossil fuels reach about 22 percent of total energy mix by 2040
• Oil continues to provide the

This article was written by

Ron Patterson is a retired Computer Engineer. He spent five years in Saudi Arabia working for Saudi ARAMCO. He has followed the peak oil story since 2000. Ron started blogging on peak oil in 2013. His web site, PeakOilBarrel.com is one of the most followed blogs on the subject. Ron's interest are geology, biology, paleontology, and ecology. His hobbies are blogging and kayak sailing. Ron is now retired and turned over the administration of the site to Dennis Coyne. Ron is still an active participant on the site and guests now provide timely posts.

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Comments (2)

Think a lot of the US slowdown is from the Permian pipeline issue (and GOM maintenance). Once the pipeline come back on in year, stand back from the US increases.
Dear Ron:
Thanks for your analysis. I would like to share with you a few numbers about the evolution of Non OPEC liquids supply in the last 10 years:

Projected NON-OPEC supply in 2018: 59,54 mmbls (OPEC July 2018 monthly report, page 87)
NON-OPEC supply in 2008: 50,57 mmbls (OPEC January 2009 monthly report, page 63)
Variation in NON-OPEC liquids supply in 2008-2018: 9 mmbls

US Tight oil supply projected for 2018:
Unconventional crude: 5,91
Unconventional NGLs: 3,18:
Total US tight oil supply projected for 2018 (2008: 0): 9,09

All the increase in NON-OPEC supply during the last 10 years can be attributed to US tight oil. Out of this type of production, the rest of the world is essentially producing the same as in 2008, despite the technological advances and the billons of dollars of CAPEX during the period.


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