Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

MannKind Scripts Improve, But Cash Situation Remains Troublesome

Aug. 06, 2018 1:36 AM ETMannKind Corporation (MNKD)42 Comments
Spencer Osborne profile picture
Spencer Osborne


  • Scripts for week ending July 27th were just over 570.
  • Cash situation would seem to indicate a capital raise is on deck.
  • Company lowered its guidance for net Afrezza revenue.

MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) investors got to get a decent look at where the company stands this week because the company hosted its Q2 conference call. Management did as expected and concentrated on the year over year growth which happens to have the best optics. The company essentially avoided discussion of the cash crunch and also lowered its guidance on Afrezza net revenue for 2018. Various points from the call will be discussed in this article, but let's get down to the script report.

For the week ending July 27th, Afrezza scripts came in at just over 570. This represents (excluding holidays) about 12 weeks where scripts have been in the 500's. The good news is that estimated net revenue has finally broken above the $400,000 mark. The average net revenue per reported script is seeing growth on the heels of multi-month scripts.

Chart Source - Spencer Osborne (based in part on Symphony data)

Quarter Over Quarter Scripts

On a quarter over quarter basis, Q3 scripts are pacing 17.67% better than what was delivered at the fourth week in Q2. This is positive territory, but well shy of the pace that would be needed to deliver the company to its guidance or deliver stock price appreciation. For perspective, MannKind needs to deliver a bit over 9,000 scripts to be on pace for its now lowered guidance vs. 6,481 delivered in Q2. The quarter over quarter growth needs to be at a 40% clip rather than a number less than 20%. Thus far, Q3 has delivered 2,144 scripts, which would imply a need of about 6,900 scripts over the remaining 9 weeks in the quarter. That averages out to about 767 scripts per week.

Chart Source - Spencer Osborne (based in part on Symphony data)

From a net revenue perspective, Q3 has thus

This article was written by

Spencer Osborne profile picture
Spencer Osborne assesses equities in a data supported realistic manner that is often missing in analysis that the average retail investor receives. His analysis is what investors NEED to hear rather than what they WANT to hear. He believes that the foundation of an equity price is based on what is probable rather than what is possible, and the trade focuses on possible near term catalysts and news. Smart investing is understanding how the market works and how that market mentality impacts a given equity. Spencer believes that investors should model their expectations and maintain a critical eye on whether those expectations are being met. If an invesor finds herself making excuses for missing the mark, then they are losing objectivity.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.