Seeking Alpha

The Gold ETF Is Oversold; The Dollar Is Overbought As Commodities Slip Down Its 200-Week Moving Average

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier
Richard Suttmeier
Research analyst, banks, homebuilders, chartest
Summary

The Gold Shares ETF is below its ‘reversion to the mean’ at $177.75 with my quarterly value level at $113.60.

The commodities ETF has been sliding down its ‘reversion to the mean’ since the week of May 4.

The long dollar ETF has been rising above its ‘reversion to the mean’ since the week of May 25.

Here are the daily charts and the key levels for the gold, commodities and dollar exchange-traded funds.

The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and are said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)

The Gold ETF ($114.92 on Aug. 3) is down 8.7% year to date and its weekly chart is negative but oversold with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $117.75 and moved below its 200-week simple moving average three weeks ago with this ‘reversion to the year’ at $117.75. GLD set its 2018 low of $114.42 on Aug. 2.

Daily Chart for GLDCourtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart for the gold ETF shows that GLD has been below a ‘death cross’ since June 21 which indicated that lower prices lie ahead. A ‘death cross’ occurs when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day simple moving average and these levels are now $119.37 and $122.98, respectively. My quarterly and semiannual value levels are below the chart at $113.60 and $103.62, respectively. The horizontal line is my monthly risky level for August at $123.44.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly and semiannual value levels of $113.60 and $103.62, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly risky level of $123.44.

The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

The Commodities ETF ($17.20 on Aug. 3) is up 5.7% year to date with a negative week chart with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average of $17.31 and slipping just above its 200-week simple moving average which is the ‘reversion to the mean’ at $16.79.

Daily Chart for GSGCourtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart for the commodity ETF shows the ticker below the 50-day simple moving average of $17.36 and above its 200-day simple moving average at $16.66 with my quarterly and annual value levels of $16.35 and $16.20, respectively. My monthly risky level is above the chart at $18.46.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my quarterly and annual pivots of $16.25 and $16.20, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength my monthly risky level of $18.46.

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

The Dollar ETF ($25.17 on Aug. 3) is up 4.7% year to date and has a positive but overbought weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $24.90 and above its 200-week simple moving average of $84.86.

Daily Chart for UUPCourtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The daily chart for the bullish dollar ETF shows the ticker above three horizontal lines which are my quarterly, monthly and annual value levels of $24.84, $24.34 and $24.18, respectively. Above the chart is my semiannual risky level of $28.65. The chart shows that a ‘golden cross’ was confirmed on May 31 when the 50-day simple moving average rose above the 200-day simple moving average indicating that higher prices lie ahead. These moving averages are now at $24.92 and $24.20, respectively.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly, monthly and annual value levels of $24.84, $24.34 and $24.18, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky level of $28.65.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.