Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Forecast Top Ten MoPay Equities to Net 8.05% to 38.63% Gains By September 2019
Five of the ten top yield MoPay stocks (shaded in the chart above) were verified as being among the Top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. Thus, the yield-based strategy for this MoPay group as graded by analyst estimates for this month proved 50% accurate.
Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the one year analyst median target prices for those stocks, as reported by YCharts, made the data points. Note: one year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to 2019 were:
Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) was forecast to net $386.29 based on mean target price estimates from fourteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
JMP Group LLC (JMP) netted $332.94, based on dividend, plus a median target price estimate from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.
Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT) netted $168.08 based on no target price estimates from analysts, just dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 131% more than the market as a whole.
Solar Senior Capital (SUNS) netted $164.50 based on the median of target estimates from three analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (APLE) netted $147.51, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 34% less than the market as a whole.
Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO-OLD) netted $130.18 based on no target price estimates from analysts, just dividends dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 81% less than the market as a whole.
Stellus Capital Investment (SCM) netted $127.82 based on a mean target estimate from five analysts, plus estimated annual dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% less than the market as a whole.
Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) netted $127.46 based on dividends plus the median of annual price estimates from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) netted $100.75 based only on dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 81% less than the market as a whole.
Global Net Lease (GNL) was forecast to net $80.57 based only on dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 47% less than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was 17.66% on $1k invested in each of these ten MoPay stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called "underdogs".
September Monthly Pay Dividend Data
Three buy and hold lists produced numerous actionable conclusions and several more un-numbered results. To draw these conclusions and results, May 29 closing prices and estimated annual dividends were referenced in YCharts. Monthly pay (MoPay) equity (1) yield and (2) upside potential lists were compared and contrasted against (3) a high yield (and higher risk) MoPay CEICs/ETFs/ETNs list.
Monthly Pay Dividend Qualities
Quarterly, Semi-Annual and Annual dividend investors anxiously await announcements from a firm, fund, or brokerage to learn if their next dividend will be higher, lower, or paid at all. Monthly pay stocks, funds, trusts, and partnerships inform the holder every four and one third weeks by check and/or statement. If the entity reduces or suspends a payment, the holder can sell out of the investment immediately to cut future losses.
This advantage has been curtailed when companies suddenly cut monthly dividends to save cash. Three prominent MoPay firms declared dividend cuts between December 2016 and March 2017.
Former MoPay top ten regular by yield. Blue Bluerock Residential (BRG) announced in December it is retreating to quarterly dividend payments "in keeping with industry tradition."
Third, Capitala Finance Corp (CPTA) cut its monthly payout from $0.13 to $0.0833 as of October 30, 2017.
For nine months, Tahoe Resources (TAHO) skipped its monthly payouts and has been dropped as a MoPay resource.
Top yield stock for October 2016, Orchid Island Capital (ORC), released this cautionary note with its monthly dividend announcements: "The Company has not established a minimum distribution payment level and is not assured of its ability to make distributions to stockholders in the future." ORC directors proceeded to back-up their words with actions cutting the dividend from $0.14 to $0.11 in February 2018, to $0.09 in March, and to $0.08 for September.
The U.S. MoPay segment is volatile and shrinking. More over-the-counter trades in monthly pay equities are available from Canadian firms.
"[A] problem with this analysis is you are comparing companies of VERY different varieties. REITs pay no taxes and their distributions are classified as ordinary income and thus not subject to the 15% or 20% tax rate. MLPs also pay little no taxes at the corporate level, but instead have "distributions"... Comparing REITs, MLPs and regular corporations thus requires a financial analysis...not include[d]." - arbtrdr
"[Y]ou list a few issues here whose distributions are rife with RETURN OF CAPTAL [ROC] at its most destructive form, funds that pay you back your own money each and every month in their distributions with no regard to what they truly earn...- these should not be included in any list containing the word "dividend". - NYer1
"I can enter or exit a position and still reap dividends for at least 2/3s of the quarter. They also smooth the income stream so I have cash at any given time to make a purchase at dips." - Ed Invests
"Dividend dog investing really works well for income in my experience. I have been seriously invested in dogs the more unloved the better." - Urbannek
"...Nice to see another contrarian strategy. This one seems to take a lot of attention in comparison [to Dow dogs], but I like the monthly rebalance." - colodude
"At this level of risk, I'm only buying monthly dividend payers. Dividend if cut only [sits] for a month and not a quarter." - Sinjjn Smythe
"...love those monthly payers." - Hardog
"Some of us are comfortable investing in Dog stocks because we feel the reward is worth the risk. As long as [my sin stock] continues to pay and raise the dividend like it has for 16 years now, it will have a spot in my portfolio." - Miz Magic DiviDogs
"One thing to point out: These stocks are not buy & hold. If you buy any of these stocks, set a price where you will sell... trailing stops work real good & with mopays you can get out & get back in without losing a whole quarter of dividends..." - drking
"I don't know how many times I've kicked myself for not investing in a beaten down group only to find it spring back up months later." - User 13258352
List One: US Monthly Pay Dividend Equities by Yield
Top ten of these US exchange listed monthly pay dividend equities showing the best yields into September represented just three of the eleven Morningstar market sectors, with representative firms split 2 to 5 to 3 between the energy, real estate, and financial services sectors.
In third place was the first of five real estate representatives, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) , a stalwart in the MoPay kennel. The other four RE firms placed fourth, sixth, eighth, and ninth, AGNC Investment (AGNC) , Global Net Lease (GNL) , ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR), and American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP (OTC:AHOTF) .
List Two: Monthly Pay Dividend Equities by Price Upside
The results shown below from YCharts for MoPay dividend stocks as of market closing price August 27 were paired with analyst mean target prices one year out. Seven top stocks displayed 0.91% to 34.1% price upsides for the next year based on analyst 1 yr. targets.
Four of the ten (tinted) on this price upside list were members of the top ten list by yield. In first place on this upside list was Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) . Following were JMP Group LLC (JMP) , Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (APLE) , Solar Senior Capital (SUNS) , Gladstone Commercial Corp (GOOD) , Stellus Capital Investment Corp (SCM) , Medical Facilities Corp (OTCPK:MFCSF) , Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT) , Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO-OLD) , and Orchid Island Capital Inc (ORC) .
Price upside, of course, was defined as the difference between the current price and analyst target one-year median price targets for each stock.
Those seven MoPay stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2019 were gleaned from 30 selected by yield. Three to nine analysts have historically provided the most accurate mean target price estimates.
List Three: Monthly Pay Dividend Closed End Investment Companies, Exchange Traded Funds, and Notes, by Yield
Eighty top monthly dividend paying (MoPay) Closed End Funds, Exchange Traded Funds and Notes listed below were culled from nearly 800 candidates. Yields greater than 13.3% calculated as of August 27 determined the top ten.
The top ten monthly paying dividend investment companies, funds, and notes showing the biggest yields for September by YCharts and Yahoo Finance data featured seven uncollateralized debt instruments [ETNs], and three closed-ended investment companies [CEICs].
Exchange traded notes captured the top five, and the eighth and tenth positions: UBS ETRACS M Py 2xLvg MortgREIT ETN SerB (MRRL) ; UBS ETRACS Mthly Py 2xLvg Mortg REIT ETN (MORL) ; UBS ETRACS M Py 2xLvg US Sm Cp HiDiv ETN (SMHD) ; Credit Suisse X-LinksMP2xLvgMortREIT ETN (REML) ; UBS ETRACS Mthly Py 2xLvg Closed-End ETN (CEFL) ; Credit Suisse X-LinksMP2xLvgMortREIT ETN (REML) ; UBS ETRACS M Py 2xLvg WF MLP Ex-Engy ETN (LMLP) ; UBS ETRACS M Py 2xLvg Divers Hi Inc ETN.(DVHL) .
Three CEICs placed fifth, sixth, and ninth, Stone Harbor Emerging Mkts Income (EDF) , Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) , and Stone Harbor Emg Mkts Total Income (EDI) . This completed the top ten Closed End Investment Companies, Exchange Traded Funds and Notes list for September 2018.
Compare Equity To Fund Performance
Background and Actionable Conclusions
Since June 2012, reader suggestions to include funds, trusts, and partnerships, a list of MoPay equities to buy and hold in September 2012 resulted from those reader suggestions supplemented with a high yield collection from here. That list was supplemented by an upside potential article in October and a upside vs. buy and hold in November. Another list factored December 2012 reader comments.
Again this year, the 2018 articles in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, and August, continued to compare and contrast MoPay equity upside potential to high yield (and higher risk) buy and hold Exchange Traded Funds and Notes constituents.
Yield Metrics Found A Modest Gain From Five Lowest Priced High Yield MoPay Equities
Ten monthly pay stock equities were ranked by yield. Those results, verified by YCharts and Yahoo Finance, produced the following charts.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated (12) 5 Lowest Priced of Top Ten High Yield MoPay Dividend Stocks Would Produce 8.46% Vs. (14) 8.37% Net Gains from All Ten by September 2019
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five Lowest priced stocks of the top ten MoPay dividend dog kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 1.11% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced MoPay dividend dog, Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT), was predicted to deliver the best net gain of 16.81%.
Lowest priced five MoPay dividend stocks estimated August 27 were: Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT); Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO-OLD); American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP (OTC:AHOTF); Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC); Gladstone Capital Corp (GLAD), with prices ranging from $2.48 to $9.71.
Higher priced five MoPay dividend equities estimated August 27 were: Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN); Stellus Capital Investment (SCM); AGNC Investment (AGNC); Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL); ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR), whose prices ranged from $11.04 to $23.57.
This distinction between five low priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The same technique, you now see, can also be used to find some rewarding dogs in the MoPay Stock kennel.
The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. It's also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.
Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. -- Fredrik Arnold
Gains/declines as reported do not factor-in any tax problems resulting from dividend, profit, or return of capital distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your MoPay dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from YCharts, Dividend.com; Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog Photo: blog.vladec.net
Three or more of these MoPay dividend pups qualify as valuable catches! Find them now accumulating on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site.
A Dogs of the Week III (Safari To Sweet Sucess) portfolio launched September 8 and now has 51 members. The last addition to the Safari will join this week. A new portfolio named Ivy League will launch after Labor Day! Click here to subscribe or get more information.
Make investing gains again. Catch your underdog on Facebook!
At 8:45 AM nearly every NYSE trading day on Facebook/ Dividend Dog Catcher Fredrik Arnold does a quick live video summary of one of four or five stocks contending for the next weekly slot in his Safari To Sweet Success portfolio. If you tune-in after Labor-day, stocks will contend for the Ivy League portfolio.
Yet always remember: Root for the Underdog.
Disclosure: I am/we are long MFCSF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.