August 2018 CPI

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Includes: BIL, CLTL, DFVL, DFVS, DLBL-OLD, DLBS, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, EDV, EGF, FIBR, FTT, GBIL, GOVT, GSY, HYDD, IEF, IEI, ITE, OPER, PLW, PST, RINF, RISE, SCHO, SCHR, SHV, SHY, SPTL, SPTS, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TTT, TUZ, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, UBT, UDN, USDU, UST, USTB, UUP, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VUSTX, ZROZ
by: Kevin A. Erdmann

CPI of all items less food, energy, and shelter for the previous 6 months (annualized) is about 0.6%. I suspect that the year-over-year measure will fall back to below 1% over the next 6 months, but rent inflation will keep core CPI near the 2% target.

This increases my confidence that the remaining rate hikes in 2018 will be contractionary. Forward rate markets seem little affected, though.