Gold And Commodities Show Potential Bottoms While The Dollar Tops Out

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier

Summary

The Gold Shares ETF is attempting to stabilize around my quarterly pivot at $113.60.

The Commodities ETF ended last week above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $17.17 and $16.85 as a "golden cross" remains in place.

The Long Dollar ETF is trading between my quarterly pivot of $24.84 and my weekly risky levels of $25.49.

Here are the daily charts and key levels for the gold, commodities and dollar exchange-traded funds.

The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Daily Chart For Th Gold ETF

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Gold ETF ($113.02 on Sept. 14) is down 8.6% year to date and its weekly chart remains negative but oversold with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $114.63 and below its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $117.68. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week at 16.69 versus 14.80 on Sept. 7 as both levels remain below the oversold threshold of 20.00.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my weekly and semiannual value levels of $111.21 and $103.62, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly risky level of $118.08. My quarterly pivot remains at $113.60.

The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Daily Chart For Th Commodities ETF

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Commodities ETF ($17.28 on Sept. 14) is up 6.1% year to date with a positive weekly chart, with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $17.24 and above its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $16.47. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week at 46.77, up from 42.49 on Sept. 7.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my quarterly and annual pivots of $16.25 and $16.20, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly risky level of $18.16.

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Daily Chart For The Long Dollar ETF

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Dollar ETF ($25.18 on Sept. 14) is up 4.8% year to date and has a neutral weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $25.17 and above its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" of $24.93. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading slipped to 64.10 last week, down from 69.84 on Sept. 7.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly and annual value levels of $24.84 and $24.18, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my weekly and semiannual risky levels of $25.49 and $28.65, respectively.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.