Currency Outlook: Convergence Of Global Economic Forces May Cause Weakening Of U.S. Dollar

|
Includes: CNY, CROC, CYB, DAUD, DEUR, DGBP, DJPY, DRR, ERO, EUFX, EUO, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXCH, FXE, FXY, GBB, INR, JYN, UAUD, UDN, UEUR, UGBP, UJPY, ULE, URR, USDU, UUP, YCL, YCS
by: Invesco US

Posted by Ray Uy, Head of Macro Research and Currency Portfolio Management on Oct 2, 2018, in Fixed Income

Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on currencies around the world.

Currency outlook: Convergence of global economic forces may cause weakening of US dollar

US dollar: Neutral. In our view, the US dollar remains trapped between two trends. Interest rate hikes (and ongoing balance sheet reduction) by the US Federal Reserve have increased US dollar funding costs and tightened financial conditions, further fueling the US dollar rally. However, while global growth has been strong, it does appear that US economic activity has peaked. This convergence typically causes the US dollar to weaken. If the trade environment stabilizes, this may benefit other currencies versus the US dollar in the near term.

Euro: Neutral. We remain on the sidelines despite the bounce in the euro/US dollar exchange rate from its lows in August. Risk aversion across emerging market currencies (sparked by Turkey) has abated but remains unresolved. While the fundamental economic picture has improved in the euro area, exogenous factors driving sentiment across currency markets remain unpredictable.

Renminbi: Neutral. The renminbi/US dollar exchange rate traded between 6.80 and 6.90 in September, driven by various headlines related to US-China trade friction.1 The People's Bank of China's (PBOC) daily fixing level has been consistently stronger than market expectations. This has helped stabilize the currency, especially during US dollar-strengthening moves. The planned issuance of PBOC bills in the offshore market may give the central bank another tool to manage renminbi liquidity and exchange rate stability. Capital controls on outflows remain tight, but financial market opening, such as the inclusion of Chinese equities and onshore bonds in major global indexes, will likely further increase overseas demand for Chinese onshore assets and could help maintain stable capital flows. We expect the exchange rate to hover around 6.80-6.90 in the near term.

Japanese yen: Overweight. The yen remains dependent on yield differentials, in our view. The recent rise in US Treasury and German bund yields pushed the yen weaker versus the US dollar and the euro. However, long-term valuations suggest the yen is undervalued, and a reversal of the recent rise in global yields (possibly due to falling growth expectations) should be positive for the currency. Consequently, long yen positions should act as a partial hedge to risk assets.

British pound sterling: Overweight. We recently adopted an overweight position in sterling versus the euro due to our expectation of a more favorable outcome to the Brexit negotiation than is currently anticipated by the markets. Economic data in the UK have also begun to show signs of recovery after a weak first half of the year, and inflation remains well above the Bank of England's 2% target.2 These dynamics suggest that a positive Brexit outcome could spur a strong sterling performance.

Canadian dollar: Neutral. NAFTA negotiations between the US and Canada were resolved on September 30. The resolution reduces a major headwind for the Canadian economy. Second-quarter GDP growth showed a rebound from first-quarter weakness, and the positive outcome on trade should increase future growth estimates at the margin. The Canadian dollar moved higher following the positive NAFTA news. The currency may continue to see near-term gains, driven by momentum and a likely rate hike by the Bank of Canada at its October meeting, but we believe it is already entering overvalued territory and additional strength in the Canadian dollar will be difficult to sustain.

Australian dollar: Neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia has said it will be very patient with interest rates but recently stated its next move will likely be higher. It has been neutral for some time, so announcing that its next policy move will likely be for higher rates is somewhat hawkish, in our view. That being said, it is unlikely the bank will move anytime soon. We do not believe the trade war is over, and any new escalation could pressure the Australian dollar down again.

Indian rupee: Neutral. The rupee has experienced a significant selloff (especially in the last several weeks), depreciating 11.75% year to date against the US dollar.3 We see this as being largely driven by an increase in crude oil prices, foreign portfolio outflows and investor fears of a higher current account deficit. Some policy initiatives have been announced in recent days to stabilize the rupee, and we expect the Reserve Bank of India to initiate more concrete policy intervention measures should there be any further sell-off in the rupee.

___________

1 Source: Bloomberg L.P., September 3, 2018 to September 20, 2018

2 Source: Bank of England, 2016

3 Source: Bloomberg L.P., September 19, 2018

Important information

Blog header image: Stefano Garau/Shutterstock.com

The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.

The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified investments.

The dollar value of foreign investments will be affected by changes in the exchange rates between the dollar and the currencies in which those investments are traded.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE

All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted.

Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd.'s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd.

©2018 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved.

Currency outlook: Convergence of global economic forces may cause weakening of US dollar by Invesco US