Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculate 44.2% To 117.35% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By Early October 2019
Five of ten top 10%+ Dividend WallStars by yield were among the top ten gainers for the coming year (based on analyst 1-year targets). So, this yield-based forecast for 10%+ Dividends, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 50% accurate.
Projections based on dividends from $1000 invested in the highest yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019 data points. Note: one-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to early October 2019 were:
Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP) was projected to net $1,173.54, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from four brokers less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 97% under the market as a whole.
American Midstream Partners, LP (AMID) netted $775.49.87, based on target price estimates from two analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.
Navios Maritime Midstream (NAP) was projected to net $758.52, based on a median target price estimate from two analysts plus the estimated dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% over the market as a whole.
Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP) was projected to net $599.72, based on a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% more than the market as a whole.
Medley Management (MDLY) was projected to net $546.04, based on a median target price estimate from three analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% more than the market as a whole.
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (MMLP) was projected to net $537.45, based a median target price estimate from seven analysts plus the estimated dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% over the market as a whole.
Avianca Holdings SA (AVH) was projected to net $488.22, based on dividends plus median target price estimates from seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% under the market as a whole.
Blueknight Energy Partners LP (BKEP) was projected to net $484.27, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.
CSI Compressco LP (CCLP) was projected to net $445.03, based on a median target price estimate from seven analysts plus the estimated annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% more than the market as a whole.
Garrison Capital Inc. (GARS) was projected to net $442.00, based on target price estimates from seven analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 69% under the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 62.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 6% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."
80 10%+ Yield WallStars By Price Target Upsides
80 10%+ Yield WallStars By Dividend Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top 10%+ Dividend WallStars By Yield
Top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 10/2/18 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.
Top stock on the list was one of five from the energy sector, American Midstream Partners LP . The other four energy stocks placed third, and fifth to seventh, Sanchez Midstream Partners , then Ferrellgas Partners L.P. (FGP) , SandRidge Permian Trust (PER) , and Martin Midstream Partners LP .
Second place was secured by the lone basic materials representative in the top ten, Hi-Crush Partners LP .
Industrial and financial services representatives placed eighth, and ninth, Navios Maritime Midstream Partners LP , and Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AI)  to complete the 10%+ Dividends WallStar top ten for early October.
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten 10%+ Yield WallStars Showed 32% To 85.5% Upsides To Mid-September 2019; (22) Lowest Downside Was 0%.
To quantify top yield rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Forecast A 11.58% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Dividend WallStars To Early October 2019
Ten top 10%+ Yield WallStars were culled by yield for this early-monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YahooFinance did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 10/2/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented just five of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield 10%+Dividends (25) Delivering 45.06% Vs. (26) 50.96% Net Gains From All Ten By Early October 2019
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars collection by dividend yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 11.58% less net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The sixth lowest priced 10%+ Dividend top yield WallStar, Sanchez Midstream Partners LP, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 117.35%.
The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of October 2 were: Ferrellgas Partners LP; SandRidge Permian Trust; Navios Maritime Midstream Partners LP; CBL & Associates Properties Inc; American Midstream Partners LP, with prices ranging from $2.01 to $8.10.
Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend WallStars from October 2 were Sanchez Midstream Partners; USD Partners LP (USDP); Arlington Asset Investment Corp; Government Properties Income Trust; Hi-Crush Partners LP; Martin Midstream Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $7.25 to $11.75.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. - Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Dividend WallStar purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: plans-voyage-new-york.com
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.