Weekly Insider Trading October 8, 2018

|
Includes: AIRT, CPB, MMAC
by: G-Stock

Summary

AIRT - Almost a straight record of purchases at ever higher prices makes this a positive trend insider play.

CPB - The poor stock performance, stable business, low valuation, rumors about being acquired, coupled with the trend shift in insider transactions makes this a decent setup.

MMAC - This is a bet on their continued ability to find good investments. Historically, they have been very successful and are continuing to buy shares.

Introduction to Weekly Insider Trading (for new readers)

Weekly Insider Trading from G-stock is the result of quantitative screening of insider trading coupled with qualitative checks to produce a list of companies with the most interesting cues. The screening process starts by looking at number and value of insider trades, if spread across insiders, their historic behavior and the value of current trade in comparison to existing shares owned. This produces a list of the most interesting companies to look at.

The next step is to filter based on type of trades and the person trading. Purchases in a new issuance of stock or exercise of options are generally considered of lesser value than an open market purchase. Generally, the more spread across insiders, the better should be the signaling value. Within the insider category, Officers are highest ranked, followed by directors and >10% owners. That said, nothing is binary, and continuous purchases of a >10% owner can be very supportive for price just like buybacks are.

So to summarize, simply looking at transaction values is not enough. Most of the time, insider transactions need to be put in context, quantitatively and qualitatively, only then can such transactions be of value for portfolio decisions.

Please note that the companies presented and information given should not be interpreted as a full picture view, or some fundamental analysis of the company. I am merely identifying insider trading patterns and looking at some basic info related to those companies, and if available adding analysis done in other articles directly linked to the company, to better score the value of such insider transactions. I strongly encourage everyone to do their own fundamental analysis of each company before investing.

Types of Insider transaction setup (of course any position is contingent on other screening factors as well)

  • Positive trend: Insiders increasing holdings in a correction in a stock with general uptrend (here I would buy and hold for some time, 1-6 months)
  • No trend: Insiders increasing holdings in a correction in a stock with a sideways trend (here I would buy and sell on a reversal to mean or within 3 months if the stock is not moving)
  • Turnaround bet: Insiders increasing holdings in a stock in a sideways or downwards trend (higher risk, smaller position, event driven holding, max 6 months, smaller size).

Overall Weekly Market Introduction

Two weeks has passed since the previous article. Insider transactions have been relatively slow these weeks, a sign of earnings season coming up. As for the overall market, it has been everything but slow. The sector rotation has continued and we actually got some interesting declines (including today, Monday) with S&P 500 right now trading at around 2860.

In the previous article I was looking for a decline of 2-4% in the coming weeks, which means we are in that interval now. I would not continue to press shorts from here but rather average in to long exposure in to earnings season. Averaging in now in to next week OPEX makes sense also with a short term elevated VIX, clear spike in put call rations and overall flush out of bullish sentiment in the most extended stocks within the cloud space. I have also stated that I am looking for a positive Q4, but I don’t expect large gains as we still have the headwinds from the Fed to adjust to in the coming months. I believe the overall Fed talk is still too hawkish for the market to make larger gains, so the most likely scenario is more of sideways action within a 4-5% interval until we have more clarity of the end of rate hikes.

Update of open and closed positions

During the previous 2 weeks, some stop losses that were set in the previous article has been triggered ((NYSE:ADC), (NASDAQ:COMM) and (NASDAQ:VECO)). Camping World Holdings (CWH) which was mentioned in the last article provided exactly that volatility I called for and could be bought at a discount to where it was trading at the time of the article. The bottoming process seems to be continuing in that name.

This article’s insider trading stocks

I have looked at the SEC reported insider transactions over the last two weeks (report date). The final list includes companies based on the insider activity rank, which might or might not lead to an immediate action.

Company

Ticker

Insider activity

Longer term insider score

Company Fundamentals

Chart Technicals

Type of Setup

Action

Air T Inc

AIRT

+

+

+

+

Positive trend

Buy market

Campbell Soup Co

CPB

+

-

+

-

No trend

Buy market

MMA Capital Management

MMAC

+

+

+

+

Positive trend

Buy market

Air T Inc (AIRT)

Summary

Almost a straight record of purchases at ever higher prices makes this a positive trend insider play. The CEO has been doing some heavy buying over time and is now joined by a director (Kohler) who sold all of his shares in 2017 at lower prices but is now buying again at higher prices. Fundamentally the company seems to be in a transformation period which could have distorted the earnings picture.

Basic company Info

Air T, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of overnight air freight service to the express delivery industry, manufactures and sells aircraft deicers and other industrial equipment, and provides ground support equipment and facilities maintenance to airlines. It operates through the following segments: Overnight Air Cargo; Ground Equipment Sales; Ground Support Services; Printing Equipment and Maintenance; Commercial Jet Engines and Parts; Leasing; and Corporate. The Overnight Air Cargo segment operates in the air express delivery services industry. The Ground Equipment Sales segment manufactures and provides mobile deicers and other specialized equipment products to passenger and cargo airlines, airports, the military, and industrial customers. The Ground Support Services segment offers ground support equipment maintenance and facilities maintenance services to domestic airlines and aviation service providers

Industry

Air Delivery & Freight Services

Market cap

71 M

Employees

775

P/S

0.34

Founded

1980

P/E

17

Website

http://www.airt.net

P/CF

4

EV/S

0.5

EV/EBITDA

12.2

Insider Trading

The CEO has been doing some heavy buying over time and is now joined by a director (Kohler) who sold all of his shares in 2017 at lower prices but is now buying again at higher prices.

Name

Insider Type

Trade date

Buy/Sell

Price

Value

Own. Chg

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-09-28

Buy

$33.55

+$1,006,500

4%

Kohler Gary S

Dir

2018-09-28

Buy

$33.56

+$335,600

540%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-09-06

Buy

$33.70

+$19,379

0%

Kohler Gary S

Dir

2018-05-11

Buy

$29.68

+$47,484

635%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-05-11

Buy

$29.68

+$47,484

0%

Kohler Gary S

Dir

2018-04-17

Buy

$25.18

+$806

15%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-04-13

Buy

$25.07

+$1,304

0%

Kohler Gary S

Dir

2018-04-12

Buy

$25.17

+$5,538

New

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-04-11

Buy

$24.90

+$1,170

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-04-10

Buy

$24.85

+$99

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-27

Buy

$24.99

+$130,248

1%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-12-27

Buy

$24.74

+$1,304,879

7%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-04-02

Buy

$24.75

+$173

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-27

Buy

$24.99

+$130,248

1%

Reeves John A

Dir

2018-03-26

Sell/Option

$25.90

-$10,386

-100%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-26

Buy

$25.89

+$2,589

0%

Reeves John A

Dir

2018-03-21

Sell/Option

$26.50

-$11,051

-100%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-21

Buy

$26.34

+$21,070

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-15

Buy

$26.99

+$5,398

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-14

Buy

$26.69

+$16,014

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-07

Buy

$25.81

+$15,486

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-03-02

Buy

$25.00

+$36,550

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-02-28

Buy

$25.03

+$43,320

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-02-12

Buy

$27.26

+$8,178

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-02-09

Buy

$28.27

+$5,654

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-02-06

Buy

$28.46

+$31,309

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-02-05

Buy

$29.55

+$11,820

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-01-12

Buy

$30.00

+$3,030

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-01-03

Buy

$24.61

+$9,845

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2018-01-02

Buy

$24.86

+$25,104

0%

Kohler Gary S

Dir

2017-12-27

Sell

$24.75

-$1,282,718

-100%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-12-27

Buy

$24.74

+$1,304,879

7%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-11-30

Buy

$24.39

+$75,641

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-11-27

Buy

$23.62

+$146,439

1%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-11-24

Buy

$22.46

+$44,232

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-02-01

Buy

$21.20

+$14,223

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-11-20

Buy

$21.05

+$41,847

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-11-20

Buy

$21.05

+$41,847

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-03-03

Buy

$21.08

+$15,666

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-06-05

Buy

$19.35

+$2,187

0%

Air T Inc

10%

2017-06-12

Buy

$0.97

+$10,027

1%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-06-05

Buy

$19.35

+$2,187

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-06-05

Buy

$1,712,720.00

+$193,537,611

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-05-08

Buy

$19.33

+$4,834

0%

Swenson Nicholas John

CEO, 10%

2017-05-04

Buy

$19.72

+$13,802

0%

Chart and technical

The pricing action looks bullish and I believe AIRT soon will set new highs so buying at market.

Fundamentals

Q1 EPS was $0.47 (-2.42 in Q1 2017), Q2 EPS declined to $0.21 (0.53 in Q2 2017). Q1 Revenue grew by 56% and 27% in Q2.

Dec-17

Dec-16

Dec-15

Dec-14

Dec-13

Dec-12

Dec-11

Total Revenues

195

149

148

0

101

103

89

y/y %

31.0%

0.2%

#DIV/0!

-100.0%

-2.2%

15.3%

EBITDA

6.9

0.1

7.3

4.3

3.4

3.3

2.4

EBITDA %

4%

0%

5%

#DIV/0!

3%

3%

3%

Net income

2

-3

4

3

2

2

1

Cash and equivalents

5

3

5

14

4

9

6

Free cash flow

-21

-10

5

8

-2

4

0

Seeking Alpha and other articles

SA January 2018: Air T Goes Vertical, also read the comment section of this article which contains very useful information that explains the CEO’s actions.

Campbell Soup Co (CPB)

Summary

The poor stock performance, stable business, low valuation, rumors about being acquired (although NY Post has reported Kraft Heinz passed on making an offer), coupled with the trend shift in insider transactions makes this a decent setup even with lack of growth.

Basic company Info

Campbell Soup Co. engages in manufacture and marketing of convenience food products such as soup, simple meals, snacks, and healthy beverages. It operates through the following segments: Americas Simple Meals and Beverages; Global Biscuits and Snacks; and Campbell Fresh. The Americas Simple Meals and Beverages segment includes the retail and food service businesses in the U.S., Canada and Latin America. The Global Biscuits and Snacks segment offers Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, bakery and frozen products in U.S. retail, Arnott's biscuits in Australia and Asia Pacific, and Kelsen cookies globally. The Campbell Fresh segment consists of Bolthouse Farms fresh carrots, carrot ingredients, refrigerated beverages and refrigerated salad dressings, Garden Fresh Gourmet salsa, hummus, dips and tortilla chips, and the U.S. refrigerated soup business.

Industry

Processed & Packaged Goods

Market cap

11.2 B

Employees

23000

P/S

1.3

Founded

1922

P/E

43

Website

http://www.campbellsoupcompany.com

P/CF

9.5

EV/S

2.5

EV/EBITDA

13.3

Insider Trading

Coming from a history of mostly selling, SVP Mignini started buying in 2017 and continued together with director Hilado in 2018. While not hugely significant, it is a shift in trend.

Name

Insider Type

Trade date

Buy/Sell

Price

Value

Own. Chg

Mignini Luca

SVP

2018-10-02

Buy

$36.41

+$200,037

5%

Hilado Maria Teresa

Dir

2018-06-06

Buy

$33.22

+$66,431

86%

Mignini Luca

SVP

2018-02-21

Buy

$45.53

+$200,351

5%

Larrimore Randall W

Dir

2017-12-27

Sell

$48.69

-$109,163

-13%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2017-12-21

Sell

$48.86

-$210,098

-13%

Carolan Edward

SVP

2017-12-20

Sell

$48.15

-$312,975

-14%

Perrin Charles R

Dir

2017-10-06

Sell

$46.46

-$107,046

-100%

Mignini Luca

SVP

2017-09-27

Buy

$46.47

+$199,821

5%

Dorrance Bennett

Dir, 10%

2017-03-30

Buy

$57.34

+$52,510,022

2%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2017-01-04

Sell/Option

$60.92

-$556,180

-21%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2016-12-21

Sell

$60.31

-$60,311

-3%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2016-11-23

Sell

$57.56

-$172,681

-8%

Travis Tracey Thomas

Dir

2016-11-23

Sell

$57.04

-$158,058

-19%

Carolan Edward

SVP

2016-10-03

Sell/Option

$54.35

-$130,443

-5%

Dunn Jeff

SVP

2016-09-08

Sell

$56.24

-$475,734

-7%

Mignini Luca

SVP

2016-09-06

Sell

$57.87

-$651,327

-10%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2016-09-06

Sell

$57.68

-$92,288

-3%

O'Shea William J

VP

2016-09-02

Sell

$57.74

-$750,620

-25%

Carolan Edward

SVP

2016-03-04

Sell

$61.93

-$309,650

-9%

Alexander Mark R.

SVP

2016-02-29

Sell

$61.94

-$5,606,127

-34%

Perrin Charles R

Dir

2016-02-29

Sell

$61.85

-$337,515

-100%

Morrissey Robert W

SVP

2016-02-26

Sell

$62.52

-$1,510,358

-25%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2016-02-26

Sell

$63.07

-$122,987

-4%

Disilvestro Anthony

SVP

2015-12-08

Sell

$53.44

-$2,137,508

-24%

Morrison Denise M

Pres, CEO

2015-11-27

Sell

$53.07

-$4,205,512

-14%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2014-12-05

Sell

$43.55

-$108,878

-5%

Carolan Edward

SVP

2015-11-25

Sell

$52.70

-$263,484

-8%

Mathew Sara

Dir

2015-09-14

Sell/Option

$49.39

-$510,495

-100%

Barroso Carlos

SVP

2015-09-09

Sell

$49.32

-$81,378

-4%

O'Shea William J

VP

2015-09-04

Sell

$47.80

-$286,800

-12%

Charron Paul R

Dir

2015-06-09

Sell/Option

$46.56

-$155,138

-13%

Charron Paul R

Dir

2015-06-02

Sell/Option

$47.88

-$155,035

-14%

Larrimore Randall W

Dir

2015-05-26

Sell/Option

$47.79

-$493,928

-32%

Morrissey Robert W

SVP

2015-05-26

Sell

$47.80

-$133,553

-3%

Dorrance Bennett

Dir, 10%

2014-12-10

Sell/Option

$44.32

-$534,100

0%

Morrison Denise M

Pres, CEO

2014-11-26

Sell

$44.44

-$1,497,628

-6%

Britt Irene Chang

SVP

2014-11-26

Sell

$44.46

-$499,064

-9%

Larrimore Randall W

Dir

2014-11-28

Sell/Option

$45.40

-$423,128

-33%

Mignini Luca

SVP

2014-12-01

Sell

$44.99

-$359,920

-8%

Chart and technical

The chart doesn’t make anyone happy but I will still buy at market price and hold for a 6 month period unless something drastic happens in the meantime.

Fundamentals

Growth is stagnant and looks to stay so in the near future. Still the forward multiples are fairly low (P/E 15) but could be unreliable due to coming asset sales.

Dec-17

Dec-16

Dec-15

Dec-14

Dec-13

Dec-12

Dec-11

Total Revenues

8,685

7,890

7,961

8,082

8,268

8,052

7,175

y/y %

10.1%

-0.9%

-1.5%

-2.2%

2.7%

12.2%

Gross profit

2816

2925

2928

2782

2971

2912

2803

Gross margin %

32%

37%

37%

34%

36%

36%

39%

EBITDA

1290

1630

1132

1156

1322

1131

1162

EBITDA %

15%

21%

14%

14%

16%

14%

16%

Net income

261

887

563

666

866

1138

774

Cash and equivalents

226

319

296

253

232

333

335

Free cash flow

898

953

1150

826

552

683

797

Seeking Alpha and other articles

Campbell Soup: Still Too Many Clouds Forming

Will Campbell Soup Be Acquired By Kraft Heinz?

MMA Capital Management (MMAC)

Summary

MMA Capital Managements mission statement is: “We invest in the debt associated with real estate and infrastructure. We focus on investments with attractive risk adjusted returns that generate positive environmental or social impacts.” This is a bet on their continued ability to find good investments. Historically, they have been very successful and looking at the insider purchases, I believe they will continue to be successful. The stock has been mostly sideways this year and I see this as a good buying opportunity.

Basic company Info

MMA Capital Management LLC engages in creating and managing investments in housing and renewable energy sectors. The firm invest primarily in debt that finances real assets and focus on investments with risk adjusted returns that generate positive environmental and social impacts. It offers leveraged bonds; low-income housing tax credits; asset management & administrative services and international housing solutions.

Industry

Money Center Banks

Market cap

0.15 B

Employees

216

P/S

4.3

Founded

1996

P/E

10

Website

http://www.mmacapitalmanagement.com

P/CF

P/B

EV/S

EV/EBITDA

4

0.8

9.2

56.5

Insider Trading

CFO’s are my favorite insider purchasing signal. This one has been buying steadily (From lower prices) since January 2017. The interesting bit is that Mr Bjarnason in September 2018 increased the size of purchases. Earlier this year other Officers have made significant purchases as well.

Name

Insider Type

Trade date

Buy/Sell

Price

Value

Own. Chg

Bjarnason David C

CFO

2018-10-02

Buy

$25.77

+$18,040

10%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-09-25

Buy

$26.36

+$52,724

1%

Roberts Lisa Marie

Dir

2018-09-27

Sell

$26.12

-$71,872

-13%

Bjarnason David C

CFO

2018-09-25

Buy

$26.13

+$26,131

16%

Bjarnason David C

CFO

2018-09-18

Buy

$27.79

+$27,785

19%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-09-18

Buy

$27.80

+$55,604

1%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-09-11

Buy

$27.41

+$54,823

1%

Bjarnason David C

CFO

2018-09-11

Buy

$27.32

+$16,390

13%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-09-06

Buy

$27.84

+$27,840

0%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-08-30

Buy

$26.79

+$53,590

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-07-17

Buy

$25.82

+$14,690

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-07-10

Buy

$26.43

+$20,062

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-07-10

Buy

$26.36

+$26,355

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-07-03

Buy

$26.47

+$14,029

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-07-05

Buy

$26.50

+$13,250

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-07-03

Buy

$26.00

+$780

0%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-06-26

Buy

$34.00

+$4,250,000

96%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-06-28

Buy

$26.70

+$13,350

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-06-28

Buy

$26.70

+$13,350

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-06-19

Buy

$26.89

+$18,825

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-06-19

Buy

$26.95

+$23,472

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-06-12

Buy

$27.40

+$24,385

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-06-12

Buy

$27.46

+$21,965

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-06-07

Buy

$27.45

+$13,725

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-06-07

Buy

$27.45

+$13,725

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-05-29

Buy

$27.44

+$27,438

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-05-29

Buy

$27.45

+$27,445

1%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-05-22

Buy

$27.47

+$20,795

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-05-22

Buy

$27.51

+$20,800

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-05-15

Buy

$28.35

+$25,230

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-05-15

Buy

$28.33

+$17,000

0%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-05-08

Buy

$28.08

+$28,084

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-05-08

Buy

$28.05

+$28,045

1%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-05-01

Buy

$27.89

+$25,156

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-05-01

Buy

$27.93

+$27,930

1%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-04-24

Buy

$27.98

+$27,975

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-04-24

Buy

$27.98

+$27,975

1%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-04-17

Buy

$27.78

+$26,395

1%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-04-17

Buy

$27.79

+$27,785

1%

Mentesana Gary A

EVP

2018-04-12

Buy

$27.75

+$13,875

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-04-12

Buy

$27.75

+$13,875

0%

Falcone Michael L

CEO, Pres

2018-04-10

Buy

$27.40

+$5,809

0%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-03-28

Buy

$26.94

+$86,607

3%

Hunt James Christopher

Dir

2018-03-27

Buy

$26.99

+$67,478

2%

Gallagher Francis X Jr

Dir

2018-03-26

Buy

$27.27

+$27,275

3%

Chart and technical

The stock has been consolidating during 2018. I think it could be time for another leg higher and will buy at market.

Fundamentals

MMA Capital Management diluted book value per common share increased from $24.48 at year-end 2017 to $32.02 at June 30, 2018. The chart below shows the historical increase of share price and shareholders’ equity per share.

Shareholder presentation

Disclosure: I am/we are long AIRT.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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