Your Consumer Cyclical Top Yield 50 & Broker Gain 50 WallStars For October

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Includes: BGFV, BKS, CATO, CSS, ESCA, EVC, F, FUN, GCI, GM, GME, IGT, LB, LVS, MDC, TUP, WHR, WYND
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

WallStars all show positive broker target price upsides. F, MDC, TUP, ESCA, EVC, LVS, GM, WHR, WYND, & IGT topped the sector by those upsides 10/5/18.

CSS, GCI, FUN, F, CATO, LB, TUP, BKS, GME, and BGFV were the top yield consumer cyclical sector stocks.

Consumer Cyclical includes twenty-eight industries. The top 50 firms selected by yield for this writing represented twenty, ranging in yield from 3.26%-11.74% and averaging 4.76%.

Consumer Cyclical Top 10 Target Price Upside firms, WRK, TTS, WYND, DIN, LCII, TAXA, TLRD, IGT, MLCO, & FLXS showed 1 year upside estimates ranging 37.08%-66.92% and averaging 50.31%.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five October top-yield Consumer Cyclical WallStars showed 1.99% LESS net gain than that from $5k invested in all ten.  High price (big stocks) came back to lead this sector.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 25.19% To 55.29% Net Gains For Top Ten WallStars By October, 2019

Two of ten WallStars, based on analyst 1-year target prices, were also placed on the top ten dividend-yielding list for the coming year (as tinted in the chart above). Thus, the yield-based forecast for the Consumer Cyclical dogs as graded by Wall St. wizards was 20% accurate.

The following probable profit-generating trades were selected by estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each highest yielding stock. That dividend and the aggregate one year analyst median target price, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to October 5, 2019 were:

International Game Technology PLC (IGT) was projected to net $552.97, based on dividends plus the median of ten analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 69% more than the market as a whole.

Wyndham Destinations Inc (WYND) was projected to net $415.63, based based on annual dividends, plus the median of twelve analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 32% more than the market as a whole.

Whirlpool Corp (WHR) was projected to net $376.16, based on dividends, plus the median of twelve analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 54% over the market as a whole.

General Motors Co (GM) was projected to net $366.87, based on annual dividends, plus the median of twenty-one analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 56% more than the market as a whole.

Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS) was projected to net $359.90, based on the median of twenty analyst upside estimates plus annual dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 56% more than the market as a whole.

Entravision Communications (EVC) was projected to net $317.45, based on dividends, plus the median of three analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% more than the market as a whole.

Escalade Inc (ESCA) was projected to net $300.00, based on dividends, plus the median of two analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 89% less than the market as a whole.

Tupperware Brands Corp (TUP) was projected by broker targets and dividends to net $289.55, based on dividends, plus the median of five analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% over the market as a whole.

M.D.C. Holdings Inc (MDC) was projected to net $281.71, based on the median of ten analyst upside estimates plus annual dividends , less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% more than the market as a whole.

Ford Motor Co (F) was projected to net $251.93, based on projected annual dividend, plus the median of twenty-one analyst upside estimates, less broker fees. The beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 32.12% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Consumer Cyclicals. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 29% over the market as a whole.

Top 50 Consumer Cyclical Stocks By Yield Represented 20 of 28 Industries In October

Yield (dividend / price) and price target gain estimate results from YCharts as of October 5 verified by YahooFinance for fifty stocks in the Consumer Cyclical sector produced the actionable conclusions in this article.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 Top Consumer Cyclical Dividend WallStars By Target Gains

50 Top Consumer Cyclical Dividend Equities By Yield

Actionable Conclusion (11-20) Yield Metrics Revealed 10 Top Consumer Cyclical Stocks

Top ten Consumer Cyclicals selected 10/5/18 by top yields represented sixn industries in the sector: (1) Specialty Retail [4 listed]; (2) Packaging & Containers [1 listed]; (3) Apparel Stores [2 listed]; (4) Auto Manufacturing [1 listed]; (5) Leisure [1 listed]; (6) Publishing [1 listed].

First place by yield went to the top of four Specialty Retail firms, Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV) [1], the other specialty retailers placed second, third, and tenth, GameStop Corp (GME) [2], Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) [3], and CSS Industries Inc (CSS) [10].

Fourth place was claimed by the lone packaging and containers representative, Tupperware Brands Corp (TUP) [4. Fifth and sixth places went to apparel store representatives, L Brands Inc (LB) [5], and Cato Corp (CATO) [6].

Seventh place went to an auto manufacturer, Ford Motor Co (F) [7], while eighth place was occupied by the leisure firm, Cedar Fair LP (FUN) [8]. In ninth place was the remaining publishing sector representative, Gannett Co Inc (GCI) [9], to complete the top ten October Consumer Cyclical sector WallStar list by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Consumer Cyclical WallStars Showed 22.18%-52.75% Upsides, And (31) None Cast A Downside.

To quantify top rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Projected A 1.99% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Consumer Cyclical Stocks To October 2019

Ten top Consumer Cyclicals WallStars were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Consumer Cyclicals selected 10/5/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven industries in the twenty three consumer cyclical industry sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Consumer Cyclical WallStars To (32) Deliver 5.49% Vs. (33) 15.80% Net Gains by All Ten by October, 2019

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Consumer Cyclical WallStar kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 1.99% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten.

The ninth lowest-priced Consumer Cyclical top yield stock, Tupperware Brands Corp (TUP), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 28.96%.

The five lowest-priced Consumer Cyclical top yield WallStars for October 5 were: Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV); Barnes & Noble Inc (BKS); Ford Motor Co (F); Gannett (GCI); CSS Industries Inc (CSS), with prices ranging from $5.11 to $13.99.

Five higher-priced Consumer Cyclical WallStars for October 5 were: GameStop Corp (GME); Cato Corp (CATO); L Brands (LB); Tupperware Brands (TUP); Cedar Fair (FUN), whose prices ranged from $14.68 to $55.18.

That distinction between the five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market.

Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Consumer Cyclical WallStar purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance or YCharts. Dog photo: youtube.com

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.