DoubleLine Global Bond Webcast Slides: Navigating Global Cross Currents; The Rise Of Populism In The Developed World

Original Post

By Jacob Wolinsky

DoubleLine Global Bond webcast slides for the month of October 2018, titled, "Navigating Global Cross Currents Navigating Global Cross Currents."

TAB I - Today's Cross-Currents

The Rise of Populism in the Developed World

(Source: DB Research)

Populism Index: An aggregated index of populism in seven large countries over the last century weighted by populist votes and population size. We include the lower house elections in France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany, in addition to presidential elections within the United States. While the definition of populism is inherently subjective, the criteria used were as follows: Parties that espouse communist policy positions. Parties that espouse nationalist tendencies with regards to immigration and militarism. Parties led by leaders with dominating, charismatic personalities rather than well-defined policy positions. Regarding Europe, generally parties that display euro-sceptic or anti-Nato tendencies. Anti-Corporate Progressive Presidential candidates in US elections whose political ideologies fell outside the political mainstream were also included.

Trump Approval Rating

(Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine)

America First

(Source: DoubleLine)

G8 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada, and Russia; G7 - France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Canada

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit by Country

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, DoubleLine 2017 data)

World GDP

(Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, IMF)

China Global Leader in Exports

(Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine)

Non-Tariff Barriers higher in EM and China

(Source: DB Research EM: Emerging Markets)

Services Trade Restrictiveness Index: OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) catalogues barriers to services trade and identifies potential scope to unlock growth through regulatory reform. The STRI composite indices are derived by quantifying the qualitative information as binary scores. The resulting sectoral indices take values between 0 (complete openness to trade and investment) and 1 (total market closure to foreign services providers).

Escalating Tariffs

(Source: Goldman Sachs GIR)

G20 Tariff Rate

(Source: DB Research)

Impact of Tariffs on China GDP

(Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine)

Double-Deficit Countries at Risk

(Source: Morgan Stanley EM Research)

U.S. Exceptionalism: Fiscal Measures on U.S. GDP

(Source: DB Research)

CBO: Congressional Budget Office; DB: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Exceptionalism: Deregulation

(Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine, Federal Register)

See the full slides below.

Disclosure: None.