84 Energy Sector Target Upsides Range 0.9-72.7% Per October Wall Street Wizards
Summary
- Energy equities with over .05% Broker Target Upsides showed midstream firms top on the list, Sanchez for price gains and American Midstream for dividend yield, as of 10/8/18.
- WallStars are distinguished by positive broker target price upsides. Top ten, CAPL, BPL, CCLP, NGL, USAC, MMLP, GPP, SNMP, EQM, and SEMG, averaged 47.42% per one-year broker targets.
- 50 top Energy WallStars ranged in estimated yields from 5.2% to 15.35%. Top ten, NGL, CCLP, EEP, FGP, EEQ, SMLP, MMLP, AMID, BPL, and SNMP, averaged 16% yield.
- The Energy sector consists of six industries, and the top 50 WallStar firms selected by yield for this writing represented all six.
- $5k invested in the lowest-priced five September top-yield Energy WallStars showed 21.42% more net gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Low-priced, little WallStars led the energy sector.
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Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Targets & Dividends Projected 31.9% To 92.4% Net Gains Driving Ten Top Energy WallStars To October 2019
Eight of the ten top-gaining Energy sector WallStars based on analyst one-year target prices were also part of the top ten dividend yielders for the coming year (as tinted in the chart above). Thus, the yield-based forecast for the Energy sector WallStars as graded by the Wall St. wizards was 80% accurate.
The following probable profit-generating trades were selected by estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in each highest-yielding stock. That dividend and the aggregate one-year analyst median target price, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to October 8, 2019, were:
Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP) was projected to net $924.16, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 97% less than the market as a whole.
American Midstream Partners (AMID) was projected to net $778.39, based on a median target price estimate from four analysts, plus dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.
Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) was projected to net $516.52, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% more than the market as a whole.
NGL Energy Partners (NGL) was projected to net $422.95, triggered by target price estimates from six analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% more than the market as a whole.
Summit Midstream Partners (SMLP) netted $384.20 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 98% more than the market as a whole.
Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $365.67, based on a median target price estimate from six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.
CSI Compressco (CCLP) was projected to net $342.04, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% more than the market as a whole.
China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP) was projected to net $336.56, based on a median target price estimate from four analysts, plus dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% more than the market as a whole.
Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) was projected to net $322.08, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from fifteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 29% more than the market as a whole.
CVR Refining LP (CVRR) was projected to net $319.44, based on a median target price estimate from seven analysts, plus projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 55% more than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 40.1% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten WallStar stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 21% more than the market as a whole.
Top 50 Energy Stocks By Yield & Price Target Upsides Represented All Six Energy Sector Industries For October
Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts October 8 verified by Yahoo Finance for eighty-four stocks from all six Energy Sector Industries revealed the actionable conclusions highlighted in this article.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) Paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where, and (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest -yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are in fact best called "underdogs".
50 Top Energy Dividend WallStars By Broker Target Gains
50 Top Energy Dividend WallStars By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Yield Metrics Identified 10 Top Energy WallStars
Top ten Energy WallStars by yield represented three of the six industries in the sector: (1) midstream [6 listed]; (2) refining & marketing [2 listed]; (3) equipment & services [2 listed]; (4) drilling [0 listed]; (5) exploration & production [0 listed]; and (6) integrated [0 listed].
First place was taken by American Midstream [1], the first of six midstream representatives listed. The other six midstream firms placed second through fourth, sixth, and ninth: Sanchez Midstream Partners [2]; Martin Midstream Partners [3]; Summit Midstream Partners [4]; Buckeye Partners (BPL) [6]; Green Plains Partners LP [9].
Thereafter, two refining & marketing firms, placed fifth, and seventh: NGL Energy Partners LP [6], and CVR Refining LP [7].
Finally two equipment firms placed eighth, and tenth, CSI Compressco [8], and USA Compression Partners LP (USAC) [10], to complete the top ten October Energy Sector WallStars by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: Ten Energy Stocks (21-30) Showed 23.8% To 72.4% Upsides To October 2019
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided more tools to dig out bargains.
Analysts Project A 31.83% Advantage For Five Highest-Yield, Lowest-Priced Energy WallStars To October 2019
Ten top Energy WallStars were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Energy WallStars selected 10/8/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented three of six industries in their sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted Five Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Energy Equities (31) Delivering 59.68% Vs. (32) 45.27% Net Gains By All Ten By October 2019
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Energy kennel by yield was predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 31.83% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of the top ten. The third lowest priced Energy top yield equity, Sanchez Midstream Partners, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 92.42%.
The five lowest-priced top Energy stocks for October 8 were: CSI Compressco LP; American Midstream; Sanchez Midstream Partners LP; NGL Energy Partners; and Martin Midstream Partners, with prices ranging from $5.69 to $11.91.
Five higher-priced Energy stocks for October 8 were: Green Plains Partners LP; Summit Midstream Partners; USA Compression Partners LP; CVR Refining LP; and Buckeye Partners (BPL), whose prices ranged from $14.65 to $36.24.
That distinction between the five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. - Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your energy sector dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance or YCharts. Dog photo: pinterest.com
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Disclosure: I am/we are long CVI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.