The Gold And Long Dollar ETFs Gain Momentum As Commodities Stall

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier
Summary

The Gold Shares ETF tests its “reversion to the mean” at $117.68.

The Commodities ETF ended last week with a negative weekly chart.

The Long Dollar ETF has a positive weekly chart and sets a fresh 2018 high of $25.75 last week.

Here are the daily charts for the gold, commodities and dollar exchange-traded funds.

The Gold Trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Daily Chart For GLD

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Gold ETF ($116.77 on Oct. 26) is down 5.6% year to date, and its weekly chart remains positive with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $115.04 and tested its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $117.68 at its high for last week. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week climbing to 56.18 last week, up from 42.90 on Oct. 19.

The daily chart for GLD shows that the ETF has been below a "death cross" since June 21 when the 50-day simple moving average declined below the 200-day simple moving average indicating that lower prices lie ahead. The ETF is above its 50-day SMA at $113.97 but below its 200-day SMA at $120.70.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my monthly, quarterly and semiannual value levels of $110.61, $110.26 and $103.62, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to the 200-day simple moving average of $120.71. My annual risky level remains at $146.20.

The commodity ETF is heavily weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Daily Chart For GSG

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Commodities ETF ($17.50 on Oct. 26) is up 7.5% year to date with a negative weekly chart. The ETF is below its five-week modified moving average of $17.68 and above its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $16.29. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading slipped to 65.10 last week, down from 70.92 on Oct. 19.

The daily chart for GSG shows the ETF between its 200-day simple moving average of $17.19 and below its 50-day simple moving average of $17.63.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my annual value level at $16.20. The ETF is below my quarterly and monthly pivots at $17.73 and $17.97, respectively.

NYMEX crude oil has a negative weekly chart with the contract below its five-week modified moving average of $69.96. The 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" is $52.05. My annual value level remains at $63.81 with monthly and quarterly pivots at $73.33 and $73.87, respectively.

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Daily Xhart For UUP

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The Dollar ETF ($25.65 on Oct. 26) is up 6.7% year to date and has a positive weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $25.35 after weakness held its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" of $24.96 during the week of Sept. 21. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 63.07 last week, up from 57.91 on Oct. 19.

The daily chart for UUP shows that the ETF has been above a "golden cross" since May 31 when the 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average to indicate that higher prices lie ahead. The ETF is well above these moving averages as this week begins.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual value level at $24.18 and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky level of $28.65. The ETF is between my quarterly and monthly pivots of $25.20 and $26.04, respectively.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.