You Wouldn't Believe What The Most Stable Asset Is Right Now - Part II

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Includes: AGG, AWF, BCH-USD, BKLN, BND, BTC-USD, COIN, DIA, GBTC, HYG, IEF, IWM, JNK, LQD, QQQ, SHV, SHY, SPY, TLT
by: The Fortune Teller

Summary

Just when things become very interesting in the stock and bond markets, Bitcoin is becoming the most stable asset out there.

Is Bitcoin becoming a "boring" asset? We wouldn't count on it.

History suggests that Bitcoin is anything but boring.

Divergence analysis suggests you should wait before jumping in.

Global stocks have lost $8 trillion in market cap during "Red October." That's the worst monthly loss over the past decade.

The last such monthly big loss of market cap happened in October 2008 - that's bloody October, once again...

Nonetheless, in case you've missed it, a few days ago we found an unexpected stable asset.

Has Bitcoin (BTC-USD, BCH-USD, COIN, OTCQX:GBTC) indeed become "boring"? Just as things at traditional capital markets - i.e. stocks (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM) and bonds (SHV, SHY, IEF, TLT, LQD, AGG, BND, HYG, JNK, AWF, BKLN) - are getting interesting, one-month volatility of the biggest cryptocurrency has plunged to the lowest level since December 2016.

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago, you are now down 3%. That's the first year-over-year decline for Bitcoin since December 2015.

In the last three months of 2017, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high once every three days, on average. Bitcoin has now gone no less than 319 days without a new high.

The longest streak ever was 1,176 days (from December 2013 to February 2017).

Having said that, Bitcoin's long-term trend lines suggest that the downswing isn't over yet. The most valuable cryptocurrency has dropped more than 60% this year, but divergence analysis doesn't portend for a positive future.

Bottom line: Not yet. Make it times two:

Certainly not yet boring, but also not yet worthwhile buying.

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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.