60 November 10%+ Dividend WallStars By Yield And Target Gains To 2019

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Includes: AI, AVH, CAPL, CMFN, GARS, GOV, LMRK, MMLP, OFS, ORC, SMLP, SNMP, TCRD, TCRX, TEO, USAC
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

WallStars all show positive broker target price upsides. 60 stocks displayed 10%+ forward yield, $5.00+ prices, and $100M+ market-caps as of 11/7/18. Yields above 11.3% narrowed the list to 30.

WallStar target-estimated early November top 10 net gains ranged 32%-83.72% for TCRD, OFS, AVH, CPLP, CMFN, LMRK, GARS, USAC, TEO, and top pick, SNMP.

30 Top stocks ranged in estimated annual yield from TCRD, GARS, AVH, USAC, ORC, SMLP, MMP, AI, GOV, and topper, SNMP averaged 15.96%.

Top 10 firms by WallStar target price upsides MRCC, OFS, AVH, CAPL, CMFN, LMRK, GARS, USAC, SNMP, and top stock TEO averaged a 37.8% estimated upside price gain.

$5k invested 11/7/18 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ top yield dividend stocks projected 12.78% more net gain than from $5k in all 10.  The low-price little WallStars came back to lead early November's 10%+ yield broker targets.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculate 32% To 83.72% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By Early November 2019

Five of 10 top 10%+ Dividend WallStars by yield were among the top 10 gainers for the coming year (based on analyst one-year targets). So, this yield-based forecast for 10%+ Dividends, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 50% accurate.

Projections based on dividends from $1k invested in the highest-yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019 data points. Note: one-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). 10 probable profit-generating trades to early November 2019 were:

Sanchez Midstream Partners (SNMP) was projected to net $837.18 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from three brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% opposite the market as a whole.

Telecom Argentina SA (TEO) netted $775.49.87 based on target price estimates from two analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.

USA Compression Partners LP (USAC) was projected to net $758.52 based on a median target price estimate from two analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% over the market as a whole.

Garrison Capital Inc. (GARS) was projected to net $442.00, based on target price estimates from seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 69% under the market as a whole.

Landmark Infrastructure Partners (LMRK) was projected to net $599.72, based on a median target price estimate from 16 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% more than the market as a whole.

CM Finance Inc. (CMFN) was projected to net $546.04, based on a median target price estimate from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% more than the market as a whole.

CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) was projected to net $537.45 based a median target price estimate from seven analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% over the market as a whole.

Avianca Holdings SA (AVH) was projected to net $488.22, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% under the market as a whole.

OFS Capital Corp. (OFS) was projected to net $484.27, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.

THL Credit Inc. (TCRD) was projected to net $445.03, based on a median target price estimate from seven analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 62.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 6% less than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

60 10%+ Yield WallStars By Price Target Upsides

60 10%+ Yield WallStars By Dividend Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top 10%+ Dividend WallStars By Yield

Top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 11/7/18 by yield represented four of 11 Morningstar sectors.

Top stock on the list was one of four from the energy sector, Sanchez Midstream Partners [1]. The other three energy stocks placed fourth, fifth, and seventh: Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) [4], Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP) [5], USA Compression Partners LP [7].

Second place was secured by the top dog of two from real estate, Government Properties Income Trust (GOV) [2], while the other placed sixth, Orchid Island Capital Inc (ORC) [6].

Three top financial services representatives placed third, ninth, and tenth: Arlington Asset Investment Corp. (AI) [3]; Garrison Capital Inc. (GARS) [8], and THL Credit Inc (TCRX) [10].

Finally, the lone industrials representative placed eighth, Avianca Holdings SA (AVH) [8], to complete the 10%+ Dividends WallStar top ten for early November.

Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten 10%+ Yield WallStars Showed 32% To 85.5% Upsides To Mid-September, 2019; (22) Lowest Downside Was 0%.

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 12.78% Advantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Dividend WallStars To Early November 2019

10 top 10%+ Yield WallStars were culled by yield for this early-monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 11/7/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented just four of 11 sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected Five Lowest-Priced of the Top 10 Highest-Yield 10%+Dividends (25) Delivering 43.24% Vs. (26) 38.34% Net Gains From All 10 By Early November 2019

$5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars collection by dividend yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 12.78% more net gain than $5k invested as $.5k in all 10. The fifth lowest priced 10%+ Dividend top yield WallStar, Sanchez Midstream Partners LP, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 83.72%.

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of November 7 were: Avianca Holdings SA, Orchid Island Capital Inc., THL Credit Inc., Garrison Capital Inc., Sanchez Midstream Partners LP, with prices ranging from $5.42 to $8.24.

Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend WallStars from November 7 were: Arlington Asset Investment Corp., Government Properties Income Trust, Martin Midstream Partners LP, USA Compression Partners LP Summit Midstream Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $8.73 to $15.60.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Dividend WallStar purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: pic.people.com.cn

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.