The Bullish Thesis And Future For Invitae Story Is Breathtaking

Nov. 13, 2018 3:15 PM ETInvitae Corporation (NVTA)35 Comments

Summary

  • The company sees itself doubling annually for the foreseeable future.
  • The company sees itself with the potential of a five to ten billion dollar company over the next 3-5 years.
  • The company is not going to raise capital for at least the next couple of years at this point given their current burn and current trajectory.

Written by Ophir Gottlieb

Preface

Our number one Spotlight Top Pick Invitae (NYSE:NVTA) beat earnings and raised guidance, again. But after our one-on-one talk with CEO Sean George, the story is clearer and yet more bullish. We added Invitae to Top Picks for $7.42 on 1-Sept.-16. As of this writing, the stock is trading at $13.53, up 82.3%.

The fundamental thesis behind Invitae is two-fold. First, the broad theme of genomics and genetic testing is exploding. That is personalized medicine which is preventative or at least, early stage identification of disease risk so patients can get care in a timely fashion such that it will affect and improve outcomes. We investigate that theme further in the article.

Second, the company itself has created a moat through its size, cost reduction, and technology, relationships with bio-pharma companies and its ability to get nearly 300 million people covered through their insurance.

Snap Shot

While we dive deep into the interview below, here are three direct quotes:

First, while the company does not provide guidance for 2019 or beyond, I asked Sean if he still stood by his statement, that the company will roughly double annually for the foreseeable future. His answer was

Yes. I'm confident that the next few quarters will answer for themselves. That's where our head set is -- there's a ton of growth in this business.

When it comes to Sean's view of the company's future, he said he plans "to build a five to ten billion company over the next 3-5 years. I'd say that's exactly where we are going. The faster we can do that the better. It's very clear to us. That's the head set."

Finally, when touching on the need to raise more capital, he said:

We're not going to need to do anything [new capital] for

This article was written by

Ophir Gottlieb (CEO & Co-founder) — Ophir Gottlieb is the CEO & Co-founder of Capital Market Laboratories (CML).CML is a member of the famed Thomson First Call roster, but our purpose is to provide institutional research to all investors and break the information monopoly held by the top .1%You can follow his stock research, called CML Pro, here: http://bit.ly/CMLProYou can use the option-backtester here: http://bit.ly/Option_TradingOphir Gottlieb is the CEO & Co-founder of Capital Market Laboratories. He is a former contributer to Yahoo! Finance, CNNMoney, MarketWatch, Business Insider, and Reuters. He was rated the 14th best finance follow on all of Twitter. ​ He has turned away from institutional finance and re-dedicated his life to helping all people find the capacity and facility to invest with the same confidence and information available to only the top 0.1%. In many ways, Ophir was unintentionally a part of this asymmetry, but now, he is here to tear it down. ​ Ophir Gottlieb is inventor of the Forensic Alpha Model (FAM) and a co-inventor of Accounting and Governance Risk Model (AGR), both now owned commercially by MSCI. SSRN lists his research, and as far as we can tell, he was one of the earliest scientists to identify deep learning, and in particular, neural networks, as a novel approach to examining financial markets while also whole hardheartedly incorporating corporate governance. ​ Mr. Gottlieb’s methodological approach taken in creating FAM was endorsed by the head of artificial intelligence for the state of Germany as a novel and extraordinary application of advanced machine learning and quantitative finance. ​ FAM and AGR are used by asset managers worldwide with over $1 trillion of assets under management. The FAM model has made Mr. Gottlieb one of the most recognized names in all of quantitative finance. ​ The Huffington Post dedicated an article to Ophir’s views in the dossier Financial Services Third Wave of Innovation: AI & Machine Learning. A rare view into his vision of the world of finance, including a 20 minute video session. Mr Gottlieb’s mathematics, measure theory and machine learning background stems from his graduate work in mathematics and measure theory at Stanford University and his time as an option market maker on the NYSE and CBOE exchange floors. He has been cited by various financial media including Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall St. Journal, Dow Jones Newswire and through re-publications in Barron’s, Forbes, SF Chronicle, Chicago Tribune and Miami Herald and is often seen on financial television. Mr. Gottlieb was an option maker on the NYSE ARCA exchange floor and simultaneously on the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) remotely. He first gained notoriety as the managing director of client services and algorithmic trading for Livevol Inc, recently acquired by CBOE. He created and authored what was believed to be the most heavily followed option trading blog in the world for three-years. ​

Disclosure: I am/we are long NVTA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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