Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Moderate Growth In November

by: Doug Short

By Jill Mislinski

On Wednesday, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index decreased to 14 for the month of November, down from last month's 15. had forecast 16. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 19.3, which indicates expansion. The complete data series behind the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing

Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in November, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index slipped from 15 in October to 14 in November, pulled down by drops in the indexes for new orders and employment, while the other component, the index for shipments, rose. However, all three continued to reflect expansion, as did most other measures of manufacturing activity. Firms were optimistic, expecting growth to continue in the next six months.

While survey results suggested growth in employment and wages among manufacturing firms in November, the struggle to find workers with the required skills persisted. The skills index dropped to a record low of −26, and respondents expected this difficulty to persist in the near future.

Both prices paid and prices received grew in November, although at a slower rate than in October. Prices paid continued to grow faster than prices received, but respondents expected growth in prices received to accelerate in the coming months. [Link to Report]

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

since 2000

Is Wednesday's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).

Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

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