By Christopher Hamilton, Head of Portfolio Advisory, Invesco Global Investment Solutions and Neil Patel, Vice President of Portfolio Advisory, Invesco Global Advisory Solutions on Nov 29, 2018, in Alternatives
Our research shows that most portfolios aren't maximizing the diversification potential of alternatives.
Alternative investments have been used by some investors to diversify their holdings, and these may potentially help reduce overall portfolio risk when the appropriate strategies are implemented properly. Over the past year, the Invesco Global Solutions team examined hundreds of financial advisor portfolios, and we discovered that a common source of hidden risk is unintended equity exposure within alternative allocations, which can have an adverse effect on portfolio performance during equity market downturns. Fortunately, there are solutions that can potentially mitigate this risk and help investors achieve desired results.
Alternatives are any investment that falls outside of the boundaries of traditional, long-only positions in stocks and bonds. They include asset classes such as multi-asset strategies, absolute return strategies, equity strategies that can take short positions, real estate, infrastructure, master limited partnerships and more.
The main objective of including alternatives within a portfolio is to provide a differentiated source of return outside of the traditional equity and fixed income markets, as well as reduce overall portfolio volatility.1 As we approach the later innings of the equity bull market cycle, many investors and advisors are asking where to obtain the returns they are looking for and how to improve portfolio downside risk.
Figure 1 illustrates that a diversified alternatives portfolio has had similar returns as equities over the past 20 years, while delivering less downside risk in adverse market conditions during this period.
Source: Invesco, August 1998 - March 2018. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Alternatives portfolio is represented by a portfolio consisting of: 20% Inflation-hedging assets; 20% Principal preservation strategies; 20% Portfolio diversification strategies; 20% Equity diversification strategies; 20% Fixed income diversification strategies. Traditional 60/40 Portfolio is represented by 60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Equities are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. 20% Inflation-hedging assets are represented by 15% FTSE NAREIT US Real Estate Index Series, All Equity REITs and 5% Bloomberg Commodity Index. The 15%/5% split reflects Invesco's belief that investors tend to invest in strategies with which they are more familiar. 20% Principal preservation strategies are represented by the BarclayHedge Equity Market Neutral Index. 20% Portfolio diversification strategies are represented by 12% BarclayHedge Global Macro Index and 8% BarclayHedge Multi-Strategy Index. Multi-strategy is underweighted in this example due to its potential overlap with global macro. 20 % Equity diversification strategies are represented by the BarclayHedge Long/Short Index. 20 % Fixed income diversification strategies are represented by the 20 % BarclayHedge Fixed Income Arbitrage Index.
Yet, some types of alternative strategies tend to be more correlated to equities while others behave more independently. Figure 2 categorizes alternative strategies into two groups - directional alternative assets which tend to move with the overall equity market (have higher correlation2), and non-directional alternative assets which generally don't move with the overall equity market (have lower correlation). Both types have potential benefits, but when diversification is the goal, it's important to understand how to combine them in a holistic portfolio.
For illustrative purposes only
One way the Invesco Global Solutions team helps advisors is through our Custom Portfolio Analysis (CPA) service. We compiled portfolio data from 121 CPAs performed in the second quarter of 2018 to assemble an up-to-date snapshot of portfolio construction insights.
Analysis of these CPAs uncovered a pervasive misapplication of alternatives, as some 68% of the alternatives sleeves we reviewed demonstrated unduly high correlation to their corresponding equities. Therefore, these portfolios are less likely to capture the full diversification potential of alternatives and may be more sensitive to downturns in the equity market.
So, how can advisors avoid this hidden risk? By making intentional choices about which alternatives to use, and whether to take assets from equities or fixed income to fund that allocation. One simple method is to implement an 80/20 core-satellite approach for the alternatives sleeve.
80% of the alternatives sleeve is allocated to a core alternatives allocation.
Assets are re-directed from fixed income as the funding source.
The core allocation includes non-directional alternative strategies that historically have had low correlation to equities and lower volatility. (Past performance does not guarantee future results)
The remaining 20% is funded from equities
The satellite includes directional strategies that historically have had higher equity market exposure and higher volatility than the core allocation. (Past performance does not guarantee future results.)
Source: Invesco, as of Sept. 30, 2018. For illustrative purposes only. Holdings are subject to change and are not buy/sell recommendations.
For portfolios that are underweight core alternative strategies, adding non-directional strategies can potentially mitigate overall portfolio risk while maintaining a similar return profile.
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1 Volatility is defined by standard deviation.
2 Correlation is the degree to which two investments have historically moved in relation to each other. In this case, it is based on five-year returns.
The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market.
Alternative investments can be less liquid and more volatile than traditional investments such as stocks and bonds, and often lack longer-term track records.
Alternative products typically hold more non-traditional investments and employ more complex trading strategies, including hedging and leveraging through derivatives, short selling and opportunistic strategies that change with market conditions. Investors considering alternatives should be aware of their unique characteristics and additional risks from the strategies they use. Like all investments, performance will fluctuate. You can lose money.
Long positions are buying a security with the expectation that it will increase in value.
Short positions/short selling is the sale of a security not owned by the seller, then buying later. The belief is that security prices will decline and the price paid to buy it back at will be lower than the price it was sold.
Most master limited partnerships (MLPs) operate in the energy sector and are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in that sector, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. MLPs are also subject to the risk that regulatory or legislative changes could eliminate the tax benefits enjoyed by MLPs, which could have a negative impact on the after-tax income available for distribution by the MLPs and/or the value of the portfolio's investments.
Although the characteristics of MLPs closely resemble a traditional limited partnership, a major difference is that MLPs may trade on a public exchange or in the over-the-counter market. Although this provides a certain amount of liquidity, MLP interests may be less liquid and subject to more abrupt or erratic price movements than conventional publicly traded securities. The risks of investing in an MLP are similar to those of investing in a partnership and include more flexible governance structures, which could result in less protection for investors than investments in a corporation. MLPs are generally considered interest-rate-sensitive investments. During periods of interest rate volatility, these investments may not provide attractive returns.
Investments in real estate related instruments may be affected by economic, legal, or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Real estate companies, including REITs or similar structures, tend to be small and mid-cap companies and their shares may be more volatile and less liquid.
Investment in infrastructure-related companies may be subject to high interest costs in connection with capital construction programs, costs associated with environmental and other regulations, the effects of economic slowdown and surplus capacity, the effects of energy conservation policies, governmental regulation and other factors.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.
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