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December Decisions, What Lies Ahead

Dean Popplewell profile picture
Dean Popplewell

By Stephen Innes

A quick run through what I think will be the critical trading events in December. With all the noise in the markets, it's easy to get disoriented, but for me, given that crude oil prices are a reliable barometer for the health of the global economy and since it's conceivable oil could trade in the $40s, the precipitous decline could negatively impact investor expectations across a wide berth of asset classes. So, while G-20 is important, it's unlikely to change US hardline trade policies any time soon significantly, so perhaps the most important event in December could very well be the OPEC summit.

December decisions, what lies ahead

The importance of just about every tier of US economic data has taken on a substantial influence thanks to the Fed's calculated dovish shift from FOMC guidance to data dependency. So, without what was thought to be the new norm of quarterly rate hikes to tether itself too, the USD now becomes hypersensitive to both external and domestic economic data releases.

But it's external data that could come to the fore over recent signs that the global economic recovery is sputtering and could give cause for global central banks to adjust key monetary policy setting lower, mainly if we get a nasty Brexit or even a sustained slowdown in China.

Ultimately, we could see the USD maintain its mantle as king of the hill

Hugely busy markets in December as there are several branches of event risk


G20 fallout will dominate Monday session. I still think it offers up a great photo shoot opportunity, but with both parties aware of what's at stake, at minimum, investors expect a verbal commitment to keep working through the issues. But reports were circulating that the two countries would continue trade talks in Washington mid-December, suggesting there is

This article was written by

Dean Popplewell profile picture
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.

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