Welcome to the November 2018 edition of Electric Vehicle [EV] company news. November saw yet another record month for electric car sales (October) beating the past record month (September). The past month also saw a huge amount of good news for the EV sector. Perhaps the biggest news for November was the launch of the first ever fully-autonomous (level 5) vehicle by Alphabet Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (GOOG) Waymo in Phoenix, Arizona with no driver. Waymo's autonomous minivans are now driving on public roads in Phoenix with no human inside.
Global electric car sales as of end September 2018
Global electric car sales finished October 2018 with 208,000 sales for the month (a new best-ever record month), up 75% on October 2017. Year to date sales are up ~68% (no update this month) on last year, with 2018 year to date sales at ~1.5m and market share at 1.9%, with two months left to be reported on. It is now looking like 2018 global electric car sales will be about 2m, and about 2% market share.
Of note, 66% of all global electric car sales so far in 2018 were pure electric.
China electric car sales were close to 120,000 in October 2018, up 85% on October 2017. Electric car market share in China for October 2018 was 5.8%, and is at 3.6% YTD.
Current subsidies in China were reduced by 20% in 2017 and will be reduced by 40% in 2019 and 100% by 2021. China's Zero Emission Vehicle [ZEV] credit system was announced on September 28, 2017, and will begin in 2019 with 10% of credits (12% in 2020) required from new energy vehicles [NEVs]. That translates to ~4-5% of EV sales as market share for 2019. We are also expecting an announcement at some stage as to when China will ban ICE vehicles, noting BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), (OTCPK:BYDDF) (HK:1211) Chairman Wang thinks by 2030. Others think it will be 2035.
Europe electric car sales were 32,300 in October 2018, 24% higher than in October 2017. Europe electric car market share was 2.9% in October 2018 (YTD is 2.3%). Norway still leads the world with an incredible 39% [BEV] and 55% [PEV] market share of electric cars sold in October.
US electric car sales were 34,000 in October 2018, 138% higher than in October 2017. Electric car market share in the US for October 2018 was 2.5%, with YTD market share at 1.9%.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for October 2018
Forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 30m by 2030, 60m by 2040
Source: Bloomberg research
EV market news for November 2018
During the month, I came across one of the best videos I have seen that discuss the new energy sector (Solar, Wind, EVs, AVs), and the disruption that is now taking place globally - "Ramez Naam | Foundation In Exponentials: Energy | Global Summit 2018 | Singularity University." Reminds me of the groundbreaking and brilliant Tony Seba work which you can view here.
On October 30, Bloomberg reported:
Even the world's biggest miners are switching to electric vehicles. While less than 1 percent of vehicles used in mining are currently battery-powered, the change is likely to be rapid and see the majority of trucks and loaders replaced with electric equipment over the next seven to 10 years, according to Epiroc AB, a Swedish manufacturer and supplier to the mining industry. In Canada, Goldcorp Inc. is already preparing to leap ahead. The underground Borden mine in Ontario -- scheduled to begin commercial production next year -- will use all-electric equipment, eliminating an annual need for about three million liters of diesel fuel. “By 10 years from now, I’d think we’ll go from 90 to 100 percent reliance on diesel at some mines to less than 20 percent, the rest will be using batteries.
On November 14, Bloomberg reported: "Electric Vehicle revolution goes underground with mine truck. Electric vehicles are reaching global markets far and wide -- and deep."
On November 14, Bloomberg reported: "EVs to top consumer electronics as biggest battery users: Chart."
EVs to dominate Li-ion battery demand by 2030
Source: Bloomberg NEF
On November 15, Bloomberg reported:
China is leading the world to an electric car future. The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter. China is dead serious about leading the way to an electrified future. Given the size of the Chinese market, the largest for cars overall and for EVs, auto companies will have to rapidly accelerate their development and manufacturing efforts to meet the targets. By 2025, China’s leaders want 7 million cars sold every year, or about 20 percent of the total, to be plug-in hybrids or battery-powered. “This is probably the single most important piece of EV legislation in the world,” Bloomberg NEF said in May.
On November 15, 4-traders reported:
A slew of electric truck plans may deliver the goods for China's EV ambitions. Having just broken ground for a new factory in the southern Chinese province of Hunan, the head of electric car startup Singulato Motors has grand plans: build up to 50,000 electric vans per year and ride the crest of a wave for e-truck demand in China.
On November 21, Metal Bulletin reported:
Strong EV numbers bode well for battery raw materials demand. Year to date, sales of 852,890 NEV s are up 116% from 394,759 units. Battery-only vehicles (BEV s) accounted for 80.4% of the sales, with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales making up 19.6% of NEV sales. NEV sales tend to pick up in the final quarter of the year – (in 2017, 49% of the year’s sales were made in the fourth quarter. If this trend continues, Fastmarkets estimates total sales for 2018 could reach around 1.4 million NEVs. Note in Chart 1 the strong recovery in 2018 sales after the subsidy disruptions in June and July.
Source: Metals Bulletin
On November 25, AVweb reported: "Russia in electric airliner race. Russia has announced it’s in the race to develop an electric airliner and it’s claiming it’s ahead of other countries in the pursuit..... Dutov said an all-electric airliner is at least 16 years away and he told Tass he expects a major technological breakthrough in about 2025 to pave the way."
An all-electric 10 engine concept plane
On November 27, Metal Bulletin reported: "The global market for electric vehicle [EV] batteries in 2025 could be 10 times bigger than in 2018, Swiss investment bank UBS said in a report published last week."
On November 27, Green Car Reports reported: "British Columbia joins governments planning to ban gas and diesel cars. The Canadian province of British Columbia plans to ban sales of new gas and diesel cars by 2040, phasing in targets for electric car sales starting in 2025."
EV company news
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
On October 30, Teslarati reported: "Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp hits overdrive: 61.8k new VIN registrations in Oct so far."
On November 2, Teslarati reported: "Tesla and Panasonic expect profitability amid improving Model 3 production ramp."
On November 15, Teslarati reported: "Tesla Model 3 fever sweeps across Europe as China gears up for possible March deliveries."
On November 20, Teslarati reported:
Tesla skeptic changes tune on Model 3 battery costs: ‘TSLA remains ahead of the pack’. In a recent note, UBS analyst Colin Langan raised his price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) from a conservative $190 to a more optimistic $230, citing the Model 3’s battery cost advantages over competitors currently available in the market. The UBS analysts, together with a group of engineers, analyzed batteries from Panasonic/Tesla, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL). According to the team’s analysis, the Model 3’s batteries, which are produced at the Gigafactory 1 in NV, are around 20% more cost efficient than LG Chem’s batteries, which are the second-best in the list. The UBS analysts estimated that Tesla’s batteries currently cost $111 per kWh, which is around $37 per kWh cheaper than LG Chem’s batteries, its closest competitor.
On November 22, Teslarati reported:
Tesla is “absorbing” part of import tariffs to lower Model S and X prices in China. Tesla has announced that it is cutting the prices of the Model S and Model X by 12 to 26% despite the ongoing trade war between the United States and the Asian economic powerhouse. Apart from lowering the prices of its two flagship vehicles, Tesla also opted to adjust the price of the Model 3, which is currently open for orders in the country.
On November 27, Teslarati reported: "Tesla denies China’s alleged 70% sales drop in October: ‘This is wildly inaccurate’."
On October 29, 4-traders reported: "China's BYD expects 2018 profit to fall by a third as competition rises."
On November 23, 4-traders reported: "Buffett-backed Chinese automaker BYD suspends plan for Canada plant. China's BYD Co Ltd has put plans to open its first Canadian electric truck plant on hold but could revive the project when the electric vehicle maker sees a business case, a company executive said."
On November 28, aastocks reported: "C Suisse: BYD COMPANY Rated Outperform with TP $81; to become EV locomotive in mainland in long run."
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) (OTC:BCCMY, HK:1958), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. [SAIC] (CH:600104) (SAIC includes Roewe, MG, Baojun, Maxus)
BAIC is currently ranked the global number 3 with 8% market share. BAIC is the number 2 selling electric car manufacturer in China with 15% market share. SAIC is number 3 in China with 11% market share.
On November 29, EV Sales reported that the BAIC EC-Series was the global top seller in October with 20,000 units in (another) record month.
On November 29, Clean Technica reported:
BMW unveils its vision for the next generation of electric. BMW bundled the current disruptions into a new acronym — ACES, which stands for Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Services/Shared. When it comes to market in 2021, the BMW iNext will represent the 5th generation of BMW’s electric vehicles and will boast an impressive 435 miles of all-electric range.
BMW iNext exterior and interior
Nissan is currently ranked number 6 for global electric car sales with 5% market share, and Renault is ranked global number 11 with 3% market share. Nissan is ranked 3 in Europe and Renault is ranked 4.
On November 30, 4-traders reported: "Japan-France spat over Renault-Nissan brews as Ghosn remains jailed."
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
On November 28, Green Car Reports reported:
Trump vows retaliation against GM for layoffs. After General Motors announced on Monday that it will kill the Chevy Volt as part of an effort to streamline its lineup, close five factories, and lay off 15 percent of its workers, President Trump took to Twitter to vow retaliation for the damage the layoffs could do to the U.S. economy. "The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get!" he tweeted. "We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies,...including for electric cars.
On November 16, CNN Business reported:
Volkswagen to spend $50 billion on electric car 'offensive'. The Germany carmaker said Friday that it would spend €44 billion ($50 billion) by 2023 to develop electric cars, self-driving vehicles and other new technology. CEO Herbert Diess described the company's strategy as an "electric offensive." The CEO said that Volkswagen (VLKAF) is also "seriously considering involvement in battery production." Diess said that talks with US automaker Ford (F) about a potential partnership are "progressing positively." "We can solve the transformation of our business more easily with partnerships. We are currently in talks with Ford about an alliance in regard to light commercial vehicles," he said.
On November 27, Motor Authority reported:
4 minutes is enough charge time to add 62 miles to the Porsche Taycan's range. The Porsche Taycan due out late next year will be among the first production cars with an 800-volt electrical system. It means the electric sport sedan will be able to take advantage of the new generation of high-speed, 350-kilowatt charging stations, which Porsche is already installing at some of its dealerships. A charge of less than 20 minutes would net a range of about 400 kilometers (248 miles), and for individuals extremely short on time, charging for just four minutes would net about 100 km (62 miles).
On November 27, Green Car Reports reported:
VW updates I.D. Cargo Buzz with solar for LA Show. Cargo vans look to be the next big opportunity for electrification, as they can save a lot of pollution with all the time and mileage the spend on the road. At the LA auto show, VW updated its I.D. Buzz cargo van concept into the ultimate delivery or contractor van, with a high-powered electrical outlet, solar power, and at least conceptually a full-self-driving system..... it will have 340 miles of plug-in range on the new European WLTP driving cycle ....Volkswagen says the I.D. Buzz cargo van will go on sale in 2022, roughly at the same time as the standard I.D. Buzz.
Volkswagen I.D. Cargo Buzz concept EV
On November 28, Green Car Reports reported: "Audi e-tron GT electric sports car is its take on Porsche Taycan." It will have a 96-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack and two electric motors.
The Audi e-tron GT concept car at the 2018 LA Auto Show
Toyota is currently ranked the number 12 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking, with 3% global market share.
On November 27, Green Car Reports reported: "Toyota Prius AWD-e earns 50 mpg with all-weather treads."
On November 9, Automotive News China reported:
Li Shufu's sky-high ambitions for Geely as mobility provider. Last week, at the biannual international air show in the south China city of Zhuhai, Geely struck a partnership deal with China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp., a state-owned developer of spaceships, satellites and missiles. The two partners want to develop high-speed trains using magnetic suspension technology to travel in a near-vacuum tube at a speed of more than 1,000 kilometers an hour (621 mph). It also plans to launch low-orbit satellites with the goal of building “a three-dimensional digital transport network for maritime, land and air transportation.
On November 14, 4-traders reported: "Daimler: To invest into new Chinese R&D center."
On November 28, 4-traders reported: "Daimler to start making electric cars in China in 2019. Daimler will start building electric cars in China next year as a way to meet Beijing's stringent anti-pollution quotas for carmakers, even as demand for conventional models like the Mercedes-Benz Maybach remains strong."
On November 1, Clean Technica reported:
Ford, Volkswagen to partner on electric & autonomous cars. Ford Motor Company is one of the organizations standing at the precipice and staring down into possible oblivion. Like many German manufacturers, it is looking longingly back to the halcyon days of yore and wondering why things have to change. But change they will and no amount of wishing and hoping and planning and scheming can stop the parade that is carrying us all inexorably toward an uncertain future. The costs associated with bringing electric, connected, and autonomous cars to market are enormous. Logically, it makes little sense for every car company to do its own R&D when it would be so much less expensive to join forces and collaborate. That appears to be precisely what Ford and Volkswagen have in mind these days.
On November 29, Green Car Reports reported: "2019 Kia Niro EV rated at 239 miles, on sale soon."
On November 29, Green Car Reports reported: "2020 Kia Soul EV has more punch, faster charging, and a lot more battery. Kia says that the Soul EV’s range will be released early in 2019. To speculate at this point, it’s very likely that the 2019 model will have more than double the 111-mile rated driving range of the 2018."
Kia Soul EV
GAC Motor Co.
On November 27, Automotive News China reported:
GAC: Electrified vehicles to make up 10% of 2020 sales. The automaker plans to launch two electric vehicles annually over the next two years, GAC executives said at the Guangzhou auto show this month. The electric Aion S is the first product based on GAC’s newly developed EV platform. With a maximum range of 600 kilometers on one charge, it will arrive in May next year, GAC said. The next product to be developed on the platform, an electric crossover, will hit the market in the second half of 2019. In the first ten months, GAC delivered 13,928 plug-in hybrids and EVs under the Trumpchi marque, nearly tripling the tally in the same period last year. GAC, based in Guangzhou, also operates vehicle joint ventures with Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. , Mitsubishi Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.
Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO)
Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp. is a Canadian Electric vehicle manufacturer established in 2015 in Vancouver, British Columbia. The Company unveiled the new 2017 Solo, its first designed product, in late 2016. Their flagship Solo car is a very small, three wheel, low-cost electric car. You can read more in a recent Seeking Alpha article here. The company announced that pre-orders exceeded 64,000 units as of October 22, representing $2.4 billion CAD worth of potential sales. The Company also sells a bigger car the Tofino two-seat roadster sports car for ~C$50,000.
The three wheeler single-seat EV - Solo - C$15,500
On November 26, Electrek reported:
Rivian unveils all-electric pickup truck with unbelievable specs. They have invested millions in the plant in hope to eventually be able to produce hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles at the factory. The Rivian R1T will start at $69,000 before incentives in the US and they are now taking refundable $1,000 deposit to place a reservation." Battery capacity options are 105 kWh, 135 kWh, and 180 kWh.
The Rivian R1T all-electric 5-passenger pickup truck with 4 electric motors
Other potential electric car companies
Faraday Future (private), Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU), Fisker (private), Groupe PSA (owner of Peugeot), Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF), Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY), Nio Inc. (formerly NextEV) (NIO), Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover).
Autonomous Driving/Connectivity/Onboard entertainment/Ride-sharing
For autonomous vehicles currently Alphabet Inc. and General Motors are leaders. Tesla, Baidu (BIDU), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Daimler, Aptiv (APTV), Ford, Volkswagen, Renault Nissan, and BMW are also doing well.
For connectivity and onboard entertainment ("smart car"), Tesla has the Model 3s equipped with Wi-Fi. Alibaba (BABA) has teamed up with SAIC to make an "internet car," as well as supplying its AI and car systems to Daimler, Audi and Volvo. Apple is doing well with Apple Play, as is Google with Android Auto. Ford China and Hyundai have both teamed up with Baidu (BIDU) for AI, infotainment systems and digital services.
For ride-sharing, currently all of these app companies (Uber, Lyft, Didi Chuxing, Grab Taxi, Ola, Gett, Mytaxi, and DriveNow) are private companies, and are not accessible to most investors.
On October 26, Telegraph.co.uk reported: "Chinese Tesla rival NIO invests in sensor firm to create 'eyes' for driverless cars. Innovusion, a startup specialising in LiDAR sensor technology for autonomous vehicles, has raised $30m after a funding round led by Chinese Tesla-rival Nio."
On November 1, CNBC reported: "Volvo and Baidu join forces to mass produce self-driving electric cars in China. The Swedish carmaker, which is owned by Chinese auto manufacturer Geely, will offer its expertise in advanced technologies in the auto industry, while Baidu provides its autonomous driving platform Apollo, the two companies said."
On November 7, Bloomberg reported: "Hyundai bets on EV era with $250 million Grab investment. Hyundai Motor Group agreed to invest an additional $250 million into Grab Holdings Inc. and sell a fleet of electric vehicles to the Singapore-based ride-hailing company as the automaker expands in mobility services. The South Korean company is actively considering an expansion of this EV mobility service into other Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, Chi said."
On November 7, Wired reported:
Waymo finally takes the driver out of its self-driving cars. Eight years after launching its self-driving “moon shot,” Waymo, aka Google’s driverless car company, is having its Neil Armstrong moment. The company is now running its autonomous minivans around Phoenix with no human inside to grab the wheel if things go bad, CEO John Krafcik announced Tuesday. And in just a few months, it will invite passengers to climb aboard the world’s first driverless ride-hailing service.
On November 28, Teslarati reported:
Tesla autopilot hits milestone: 1 billion miles driven, 10% of fleet’s total mileage to date. Tesla owners have driven 1 billion miles with the driver-assist system engaged. This impressive figure corresponds to 10% of the total mileage driven by Tesla’s electric cars across the globe to date.
On November 28, Green Car Reports reported:
Byton reveals self-driving living-room on wheels, the K-Byte, in LA. Byton aims to reinvent the car by turning it into the next generation iPhone. Other automakers have talked about turning their center screen displays into iPhone-like interfaces, but not the whole car. That seems to be the goal of Byton, which says it is creating the “next generation smart device,” “spaceship Byton,” “your self-cruising living space.”
Investors may also like to read my articles "Companies to benefit from the future smart car boom", "How To Benefit From The Autonomous Vehicles Trend Starting As Soon As 2019", and "An Update On The Autonomous Vehicle And Ride-Sharing Trend."
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I am following include Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Didi Chuxing, Dyson (private), Great Wall Motors, Fisker (private), GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF), Honda, Lamborghini, Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Suzuki Motor Corp. [TYO: 7269] (OTCPK:SZKMY) (OTCPK:SZKMF), WM Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or planning to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - Norway (2025), Netherlands (2030), China (?2030/35), Germany (?2030), Israel (2030), UK (2040), France (2040), Japan (2050); Paris (2030), London, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens. Added to this are countries pushing hard to become 100% EV - Norway and India (30% by 2030).
Investors can also read my article "The EV Boom Just Keeps Getting Bigger."
October 2018, electric car sales were yet another record best month ever. What an incredible sales month October was with USA sales up an amazing 138% YoY, and China sales up an incredible 85% and hitting 5.8% market share.
Electric car market share for October reached 2.9% in Europe, 5.8% in China, and 2.5% in the USA. Year to date global electric car market share is now at 1.9%.
Highlights for the month were:
- The incredible sales results from October smashing the previous global electric car sales record from September. As usual, China led the way, but the US growth rate was amazing. Tesla remains the global Number 1, and now has an incredible 50% market share of electric car sales in the US.
- Bloomberg - "Even the world's biggest miners are switching to electric vehicles."
- Starting in January 2020, all major manufacturers operating in China, have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs.
- UBS - "The global market for electric vehicle [EV] batteries in 2025 could be 10 times bigger than in 2018."
- Tesla hits 50% market share of new electric car sales in the US.
- BMW new acronym — ACES, which stands for Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Services/Shared.
- Volkswagen to spend €44 billion ($50 billion) by 2023 to develop electric cars, self-driving vehicles and other new technology.
- Porsche - 4 minutes is enough charge time to add 62 miles (100 kms) to the Porsche Taycan's range.
- Daimler to start making electric cars in China in 2019.
- Rivian unveils all-electric pickup truck with unbelievable specs.
- Waymo finally takes the driver out of its self-driving cars.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
Thanks for reading the article. If you want to go to the next level, sign up for Trend Investing, my Marketplace service. I share my best investing ideas, latest trends, exclusive CEO interviews, chat room access to me, and to other sophisticated investors. You can benefit from the work I've done, especially in the electric vehicle and EV metals sector. You can learn more by reading "The Trend Investing Difference", "Recent Subscriber Feedback On Trend Investing", or sign up here.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD CO (HK:1211), ALPHABET GOOGLE (GOOG). ALIBABA (BABA), ELECTRAMECCANICA VEHICLES CORP. (SOLO). I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.