Game Plan For The Week - Cramer's Mad Money (11/30/18)

by: SA Editor Mohit Manghnani

Outcomes of the G20 meeting.

Stay away from Snap.

Defense stocks are going down after Democrats took the house.

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday, November 30.

The next week will be dominated by tariff talks. "Between Trump's meeting with President Xi over the weekend at the G20 summit and the employment number on Friday, there's a whole lot going on next week. Let's just hope it's not too exciting," said Cramer. With that, he discussed the game plan for the week.


Earnings: Coupa Software (NASDAQ:COUP)

As the Fed has changed its stance on rate hikes, the environment for growth stocks has become good. "Speaking of the Fed, I sure wish they'd start thinking not just about the raw data interpretation, but also about outfits like Coupa, which save companies a fortune by cutting back on people — the most expensive part of a business — and allowing them to rely on software to handle procurement," said Cramer.


Earnings: Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Autozone (NYSE:AZO), HD Supply (NASDAQ:HDS), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), RH (NYSE:RH)

The best earnings in retail have come from bargain retailers and Cramer expects a surprise from Dollar General too.

Cramer is also a fan of Autozone due to its stock buyback program. "Even if the company delivers slightly off numbers, just a little bit of slippage, it's usually a great buying opportunity. These days, people are keeping their cars longer and longer, which means they need more maintenance and spare parts, a real boon to all of these auto parts companies," he added.

HD Supply provides industrial services to roughly 500,000 smaller-scale professional customers and its earnings will give a read on how the small businesses are doing.

Toll Brothers might not report great earnings. "Remember, I'm not saying the economy overall is weak, I'm saying it's weaker than it's been, and one of the reasons is the slowing housing market. I bet Toll confirms my view, particularly on the coasts," he added. The same would apply to RH.


Earnings: Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE)

The stocks of both Lululemon Athletica and Five Below have been struggling due to the trade war. "I think both sell-offs are overblown at this point. However, I'm mindful of how hard it is to own retailers right now, now that people think the economy's shifting to a lower gear," he added.


Earnings: Kroger (NYSE:KR), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA)

Cramer is concerned about Kroger's earnings. "While I think, certainly, that Kroger can spin a good yarn about remodeled stores, that merely makes it an OK house in a very bad neighborhood. I'm going to have to say no, thank you."

Broadcom's earnings will be critical. "I want to know about its quizzical acquisition ... of a software company called CA that works with mainframes, not to mention the exposure to China, 5G and Apple, although the latter is not to be named. At most, you make some cryptic reference, say a major customer. Still, there's a lot to learn from Broadcom," he said. Wait and watch.

Cramer was bullish on Ulta's earnings.


Friday will be about Non-farm payrolls. "I think it will give us our last strong set of employment numbers because I think it's tailing off giving the Fed justification that it needs for one more tightening, December tightening, before it waits to see how its rate hikes have impacted the economy," concluded Cramer.

How to play the G20 summit

The meet with China at the G20 summit can go either way. Cramer chalked out the possible scenarios and the action investors need to be ready for.

Scenario 1: A trade deal - This is possible with China's economy slowing. However, China has the no surrender mantra and this likelihood is 10%.

Scenario 2: Delayed 25% tariffs - In this case, China gets more time and the 25% tariffs are delayed with some concessions. Likelihood is 10%.

Scenario 3: 25% tariffs since January but hold off on new tariffs. Cramer thinks this is the most likely scenario with 50% chance.

Scenarios 4: 25% tariffs in January and 10% tariffs on new goods - Trump has proposed this plan and the likelihood is 25%.

Scenario 5: Immediate 25% tariffs - There's a 5% chance of this.

The market reaction to these outcomes will be the status quo and it will likely sell off on Monday. That's a chance to buy recession-proof consumer packaged stocks and avoiding tech and industrial.


The stock of Snap has fallen to $6 per share. Has it become cheap enough to buy?

The company went public in 2017 with a hot product and $1B in cash. They did well and their cash increased to $3.2B, but after a series of earnings misses and high spending, their current cash after two years stands at $1.4B.

The day-to-day costs of the company are very high as it's costly to acquire cloud space for millions of hours of daily video uploads.

Cramer is not a fan of the company's stock structure either as 80% of the company is controlled by founders leaving no room for activist investors to induce change. Even though the company has no debt, the fact that it is burning cash and not generating it is a huge problem.

"Snap's growth is evaporating before our very eyes. Until Snap gives us some reason to believe in a turnaround, it's an ill-advised decision to buy the stock," concluded Cramer.

CEO interview - Kar Auction Services (NYSE:KAR)

What do the job cuts by automakers and new tariffs mean for Kar Auction? Cramer interviewed CEO Jim Hallett to find out the outlook of the company.

Hallett said Kar is the NYSE of car auctions where customers can buy and sell used and salvaged vehicles physically or via their online platforms. The company sells 5.5M cars each year.

As the prices of new cars continue to rise, people are turning to used cars. Even damaged vehicles are bought by domestic and international buyers who rebuild them or use them for parts. The average age of the car on the road is 11.5 years and used cars are becoming a big part of the industry.

The tariffs will be a boon for Kar Auction as the price of new cars will rise. This will lead to a rise in the value of used cars.

Viewer calls taken by Cramer

Altria Group (NYSE:MO): It yields 5.8% and it's not special. Cramer does not want to recommend tobacco stocks.

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT): It's a buy. The defense stocks are going down after Democrats took the house.

Starwood Property (NYSE:STWD): The stock is up and the 8.5% yield looks safe.

Palo Alto (NYSE:PANW): Cramer thinks it was a buy as their last quarter was good and even after the CEO stepped down.

Twitter (NYSE:TWTR): It's not as exciting as it used to be but it's still a buy at $30.


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