41 'Safer' Dividend Healthcare Pre-December WallStars From Dividend Dogcatcher

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Includes: ABBV, AMGN, BMY, FMS, GILD, GRFS, JNJ, MCK, MDC, NVS, PAHC, PFE, PRGO, SNY, XRAY, ZBH
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

November's top net gain 'safer' Healthcare WallStar is Gilead Sciences. Its projected 26.75% net gain was 4.14% better than Fresenius's, and 9.44% more than Bristol-Myers's results per analyst targets 11/28/18.

WallStars all show positive broker target price upsides. 41 of 55 Healthcare sector WallStars are 'safer' because they showed positive one-year returns, and free cash flow yields greater than their dividend yields.

Top 10 'safer' dividend Healthcare WallStar yields by MDT, GRFS, JNJ, AMGN, PFE, BMY, GILD, NVS, SNY, ABBV ranged 2.10%-4.81%. Their free cash flow yields ranged 2.81%-8.71%.

Besides safety margin, Healthcare WallStars also reported payout ratios (lower is better), total annual returns, dividend growth, and P/E ratios as of 11/28/18 to further validate their financial strengths. Sorting for only positive total returns narrowed the list of 55 to 47.

Analyst one-year targets identified ten WallStars netting 26.60% more gain from $5k invested in the lowest priced five than from $5k invested in all ten. Those little low-priced stocks dominated November's 'safer' dividend Healthcare WallStars.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast Ten High Yield Top Healthcare 'Safer' Dividend Stocks to Net 12.6% to 26.75% Gains To November 2019

Four of ten top 'safer' dividend Healthcare stocks by yield (shaded in the chart above) were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year. Thus, based on analyst 1-year target prices, the dog strategy for this Health group graded out as 40% accurate.

Projections based on estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in the ten highest yielding Healthcare stocks, and aggregate one-year analyst mean target prices for tho stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019 data points. Note: one-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to 2019 were:

Gilead Sciences (GILD) netted $267.47 based on estimates from twenty-seven analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% more than the market as a whole.

Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) netted $196.12 based on dividends plus median target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number 11% over the market as a whole.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) netted $173.08 based on estimates from eighteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% more than the market as a whole.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH) netted $167.10 based on a median target from thirty-one analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% over the market as a whole.

AbbVie (ABBV) netted $162.60 based on a median target price estimate from twenty analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 63% more than the market as a whole.

Perrigo Co. (PRGO) netted $148.32 based on median target price estimates from fifteen analysts, plus projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 34% less than the market as a whole.

Sanofi (SNY) netted $147.09 based on the median of estimates from four analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.

McKesson (MCK) netted $145.15, based on estimates from seventeen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% more than the market as a whole

Dentsply Sirona Inc. (XRAY) netted $142.76 based on estimates from fifteen analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% more than the market as a whole.

Phibro Animal Health Corp. (PAHC) netted $125.98 based on estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% under the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 16.57% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Healthcare "safer" dividend stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.

Source: celebritydachshund.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The "dog" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

The Healthcare 'Safer' Dividend Top Yield List Of 41 Included 9 Of Ten Sector Industries

Of ten healthcare industries composing the sector, nine were represented by the 40 WallStar firms whose stocks showed sufficient margins of cash to cover dividends by this screen as of November 28.

Industry representation broke-out, thus: Drug Manufacturers - Major (6); Biotechnology (4); Medical Devices (5); Diagnostics & Research (6); Medical Distribution (2); Medical Care (5); Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic (3); Healthcare Plans (2); Medical Instruments & Supplies (8); Long-Term Care Facilities (0).

The first three industries listed above populated the top ten of the healthcare 'safe' equities by yield.

41 of 55 Top Yield Healthcare WallStars Showed 'Safer' Dividends

Source: YCharts

Periodic Safety Inspection

A previous article discussed the attributes of the 55 top yield Healthcare stocks on this master list.

You see grouped below the green tinted list of 41 that passed the Healthcare WallStar 'safer' check with positive past-year returns and cash flow yield sufficient to cover their anticipated annual dividend yield. The margin of cash excess is shown in the bold face "Safety Margin" column.

Source: YCharts

Financial outcomes, however, are easily readjusted by boards of directors tinkering with company policies cancelling or varying the payout of dividends to shareholders. For example, Sanofi has paid a variable annual dividend over the years, as has Novartis (NVS).

Three additional columns of financial data, listed after the Safety Margin figures above, reveal payout ratios (lower is better), total annual returns, dividend growth, and P/E ratio levels for each stock. This data is provided to reach beyond yield to select reliable payout stocks.

Limiting candidates to only those showing positive total annual returns, for example, narrowed the 55 on this list to 47 for this article. Positive results in all five columns after the dividend ratio is remarkable as a solid financial signal.

To quantify top rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high yield metric, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Yield Metrics Revealed Bargains From 5 Lowest Priced Top 10 Yielding 'Safer' Dividend Healthcare WallStars

Ten 'safe' dividend Healthcare WallStars with the biggest yields November 28 per YCharts data ranked themselves by yield as follows:

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Alleged 5 Lowest Priced, of 10 'Safer' Dividend High Yield Healthcare Sector Stocks, To (11) Deliver 13.52% Vs. (12) 10.68% Net Gains from All Ten by November 2019

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest priced stocks in the ten 'safer' dividend Healthcare Sector pack by yield were determined by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 26.6% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The fifth lowest priced 'safer' dividend Healthcare dog, Gilead Sciences Inc. showed the best net gain of 26.75% per analyst targets.

Source: YCharts

Lowest priced five 'safer' dividend Healthcare equities as of November 28 were: Grifols SA (GRFS); Pfizer Inc. (PFE); Sanofi; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.; Gilead Sciences, with prices ranging from $21.13 to $69.19.

Higher priced five "safer" dividend Healthcare equities as of November 28 were: AbbVie; Novartis; Medtronic (MDC); Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); Amgen (AMGN), with prices ranging from $88.94 to 201.42. This month, the little, low-cost 'safer' dividend stocks ruled this kennel.

The distinction between five low priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. It's also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.

Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.

The net gain estimates mentioned above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. - Fredrik Arnold

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your safest "Safer" Healthcare dog dividend stock research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.ycharts. com; www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dr. Dog photo: celebritydachshund.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long PFE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.