Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 26.62% To 48% Net Gains By Top Ten Real Estate WallStars Come November 2019
Two of ten top dividend-yielding Real Estate stocks were found among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). Thus, our yield-based forecast for the Real Estate sector stocks was certified 20% accurate by broker target forecasts.
Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data points. Note: one-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). The ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to November 2019 were:
Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) was projected to net $480.57, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% more than the market as a whole.
Select Income REIT (SIR) was projected to net $415.08, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 20% less than the market as a whole.
City Office REIT Inc. (CIO) was seen to net $366.92 based on the median target price estimate from nine analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 67% less than the market as a whole.
Landmark Infrastructure (LMRK) was projected to net $362.49, based on target price estimates from six analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 70% less than the market as a whole.
Government Properties (GOV-OLD) was projected to net $342.89 based on dividends, plus the median target price from estimates by seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's volatility 37% above the market as a whole.
Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) netted $327.74 based on a median target price estimate from two analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Great Ajax (AJX) was projected to net $289.82, based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% under the market as a whole.
The GEO Group Inc. (GEO) was projected to net $283.67, based on dividends, plus target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 23% more than the market as a whole.
Senior Housing Properties (SNH) was projected to net $276.52, based on a median target estimate from nine analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 55% less than the market as a whole.
Pennsylvania Real Estate (PEI) topped the list with a projected net gain of $266.23, based on the median target price estimate from seven analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% over the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 34.11% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 10% over the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top Real Estate WallStars By Target Gains
Top 50 October Real Estate WallStars By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Ranked 10 Top Real Estate WallStars
Top ten Real Estate Sector WallStars selected 11/28/18 by yield represented five of nine constituent industries.
The first of four diversified REIT industry representatives in the top ten placed third, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) . The other three diversified members placed fourth, fifth, and tenth: Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. (ANH) ; Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp. (WMC) ; MFA Financial (MFA) .
A single industrial REIT placed sixth, Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT) , followed by two residential REIT representatives in the seven and eight spots, Dynex Capital Inc. (DX) , and New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ) .
To complete the top ten November Real Estate sector WallStars by yield, a healthcare facilities representative placed ninth, Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) .
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten RE WallStars Reported 17.44% To 40.63% Price Upsides To November 2019; (22) No Downsides Were Noted
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Estimated A 17.86% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Real Estate Sector WallStars To November 2019
Ten top Real Estate WallStars were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Real Estate WallStars selected 12/28/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of nine industries constituting the sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Targeted 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Real Estate Dogs (23) Delivering 16.89% Vs. (24) 20.48% Net Gains by All Ten Come November 2019
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Real Estate kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 17.86% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The sixth lowest priced Real Estate top yield equity, Government Properties Income Trust (GOV-OLD), was projected to gain 34.29%.
The five lowest-priced Real Estate top yield WallStars as of November 28 were: Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. (ANH); Dynex Capital Inc. (DX); Washington Prime Group Inc. (WPG); Orchid Island Capital (ORC); MFA Financial (MFA), with prices ranging from $4.52 to $7.14.
Five higher-priced Real Estate WallStars were: Government Properties Income Trust (GOV-OLD); Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp. (WMC); Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH); New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ); Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT), whose prices ranged from $8.57 to $19.54.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. -- Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Real Estate WallStar stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from IndexArb; YCharts; Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Home dog photo: wall.coloringpagelogo.com.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SNR over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.