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Ford Truck Sales Slow

Dec. 04, 2018 7:51 AM ETFord Motor Company (F)30 Comments
Bespoke Investment Group profile picture
Bespoke Investment Group

Sales of F-Series trucks from Ford (NYSE:F) slowed slightly in the month of November relative to the same month last year, even as both months had the same number of industry selling days (25). Total sales came in at 72,108 compared to 72,769 last year. For the last three years now, November F-Series sales have been pretty much stuck at the 72K level. Looking back over time, though, the last three Novembers have been the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best Novembers for sales going all the way back to 1996. Sales of pickup trucks (specifically at Ford) are often a sign of strength or weakness in the small business and construction sectors, so it's good to watch these readings for signs of strength of weakness.

With 11 months in the books, total sales of F-Series trucks by Ford now stands at 822K, which is a 1.8% increase from the first 11 months of 2017. The only two years where sales were stronger through the end of November were 2004 (844K) and 2001 (827K). Depending on how things shake out in December, this year will likely go down as one of the top three years for Ford F-Series truck sales on record.

Finally, the chart below shows seasonally adjusted monthly F-Series truck sales by Ford. Similar to overall auto sales in the US, sales appear to have plateaued for the time being. They aren't quite rolling over, but they certainly aren't rising either.

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Comments (30)

Tdot profile picture
How soon everyone forgets that November 2017 sales were significantly boosted by the black swan post-hurricane replacement sales, and contractors gearing up their fleets for the tens of billions in rebuilding.

That this year's sales rather neatly matched the last two years shows strength, not weakness.

Also note that Ford is probably close to maxing out their pickup truck building capacity, so unless they reshuffle the deck of factories and add another F-Series assembly plant or line somewhere, they may be stuck with building and selling "only" about a million a year for the foreseeable future.
F150 infotainment systems are overpriced and worst in class.
Tdot profile picture
If that is true, then folks will quickly figure that out, and stop buying it. Meanwhile you evidently seem to hold the minority view of two.
You know the Author could and should have worded his column like this. ( Ford trucks and F-150 sales remain strong in November )
AutoTech profile picture
Truck sales peaked across the industry earlier.

Next year will be much worse for Ford as competitors (e.g Jeep Gladiator) ramp up.............this is what happens when everything (90% of the company's overall profits) is tied to one or two products.

Stock is a DUMP (on upcoming dividend cut and recession)
TBurch125 profile picture
Thanks for the advice, I am loading up on F
04 Dec. 2018
Good move TBurch!
There are far better income stocks than F TBurch.
Good for ecology lol
The tariffs are beginning to hurt; wise up, Trump.
Hey GBB. I can't believe you are a F fan. Surely you can find a better dividend play than F.
I've collected the dividend for 3 years now. Don't ask about my paper loss.
9th month in a row of over 70.000 F series sales, will easily eclipse 900,000 units for the year, better then any year on the graph and the author acknowledges this achievement. So why such a negative heading? Are sales peaking? Well yes, but we've been hearing the phrase “peak autos” since the latter part of 2015. The author might want to show some graphs including the transit series vans into this equation as they are classified as trucks and Ford has the best sellers in the industry. Van sales are up almost 10% YOY.
Tdot profile picture
ivan - I was just doing some calculations, and based on last December's 89.4k in sales, and based available sales days and YTD sales pace, they should be able to clear right around 90k this December, and finish the year at around 910k.

Note that this is US sales only - they typically sell another 15% or so in Canada and Mexico and overseas, so well over a million units in total F-Series sales seems likely worldwide.
Crudely Midstream profile picture
Wow, almost 700 fewer trucks. #MindBlown
$35,000 for a loaded F-150 ..... good luck with that payment average joe on a $30,000 salary.
Trembling With Greed profile picture
$35k? More like $55k+ for a fully loaded F150
I drive a 2001 .....sorry it’s been awhile since I strolled the lot.
Buckelew profile picture
I'm quite comfortable these days and could probably find a way to afford almost any car I'd want, but the idea of paying $55K for a truck -- especially knowing how little it actually costs to build them -- nauseates me.

That's why I'm hanging on to the last new GM car that I bought, and the last I'll ever buy, an '05 GMC Sierra W/T that listed at $22,240 but sold at $10,800. Adding to the 270,000 on the odo feels really good when looking at vehicle prices today.
M Plaut profile picture
That rounding error is not really worthy of the headline it has.
"Depending on how things shake out in December, this year will likely go down as one of the top three years for Ford F-Series truck sales on record." Shouldn't this article be titled Ford headed for record year? Or do you only get paid if you write a negative story about Ford.
team Gabe profile picture
looking strong !
Puttin the chicken before the egg, eh?
Username Already Taken profile picture
Mixing metaphors eh?
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