Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Projected 21.5% To 58.85% Net Gains For Top Ten Utilities WallStars
Three of ten top dividend high yield Utilities were verified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They're tinted gray in the chart above). Thus, the yield-based forecast for Utilities as graded by Wall St. wizards was 30% accurate.
Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in the thirty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst mean target prices as reported by YCharts produced the 2019 data. Note: One-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to December 2019 were:
Just Energy Group Inc. (JE) was projected to net $588.53 based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% below the market as a whole.
Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) was projected to net $412.35, based on a median target price estimate from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% above the market as a whole.
Enel Generacion Chile (EOCC-OLD) was projected to net $300.30, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% below the market as a whole.
Enel Americas (ENIA) netted $282.81 based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility37% less than the market as a whole.
Atlantica Yield plc (AY) was projected to net $281.73, based on a median target price estimate from eight analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% below the market as a whole.
Companhia de Saneamento (SBS) was projected to net $281.72 based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% less than the market as a whole.
Edison International (EIX) was projected to net $240.30, based on target price estimates from eighteen analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 99% less than the market as a whole.
Enel Chile (ENIC) was projected to net $235.68, based on dividends, plus upside estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for ENIC.
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) was projected to net $229.15, based on dividends, plus upside estimates from thirteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.
National Grid plc (NGG) netted $215.22 based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 78% below the market as a whole.
The average net gain (dividend and price less broker fees) was estimated at 30.68% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top Utility Dividend WallStars By Target Gains
50 Top Utilities Dividend WallStars By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Ten Top Dividend Utilities WallStars Ranked By Yield
Top ten Utilities sector WallStars selected 11/30/18 by yield represented four of five constituent industries. The two top yielding represented regulated gas companies, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH)  and AmeriGas Partners LP (APU) .
In third place was the lone diversified utility representative, Just Energy Group Inc. . Two independent power producer representatives placed fourth and tenth, Pattern Energy Group (PEGI)  and Brookfield Renewable (BEP) .
Five regulated electric utility industry firms placed fifth through ninth: Spark Energy (SPKE) , Atlantica Yield , Clearway Energy Inc. (CWEN.A) , & (CWEN) , Enel Generacion Chile , to complete the top ten October Utilities WallStars by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Ten Utilities WallStars Showed 17.68% To 51.87% Price Upsides To December 2019; (22) Not One Downside
To quantify top stock rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Estimated A 22.77% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Utilities WallStars To December 2019
Ten top Utilities were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Utilities dogs selected 11/30/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented four of five industries constituting the sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Utilities WallStars (23) Delivering 15.23% Vs. (24) 12.41% Net Gains by All Ten by December 2019
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Utilities kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 22.77% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The very lowest priced, Just Energy Group Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 58.85%.
The five lowest-priced utilities as of November 30 were: Just Energy Group Inc., Spark Energy; Clearway Energy Inc. (CWEN.A) & (CWEN); Enel Generacion Chile, with prices ranging from $4.28 to $18.51.
Five higher-priced Utilities for November 30 were: Atlantica Yield, Pattern Energy Group Inc., Suburban Propane Partners LP; Brookfield Renewable; AmeriGas Partners, whose prices ranged from $19.62 to $37.16.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article, this glossary instablog to interpret my abbreviated headings, and this instablog to aid your safe investing. - Fredrik Arnold
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Utilities dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: brandsoftheworld.com
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.