Jeffrey Snider profile picture
Jeffrey Snider

Now that the slowdown is being absorbed and even talked about openly, it will require a period of heavy CYA. This part is, or at least it has been at each of the past downturns, quite easy for its practitioners. It was all so "unexpected", you see. Nobody could have seen it coming. Therefore, it just showed up out of nowhere unpredictably spoiling the heretofore unbreakable, incorruptible boom everyone was talking about just last week.

A prime example from yesterday's "unimaginable" market display:

"What is the most striking aspect of this move is the extent of it in just two days and how the acceleration came out of nowhere right after a supposed amicable meeting between the U.S. and China," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, said in a note. "It's almost as if the bond market screamed out, 'It's too late, the growth slowdown underway can't be reversed."'

Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with US/China trade disputes? As I wrote yesterday, there is an inevitability to the downside now that derives from this constant misunderstanding of the underneath. That's because the very idea of a boom was made up from nothing.

The narrative that there was had been pieced together from fantasy, a purposeful misreading of the situation to make it sound like recovery was, excuse me, inevitable. But if you listened closely to what policymakers were really saying, given how the media narrative is set that's where everyone starts, they were actually describing a two-step.

Markets were thinking the same way, too. In other words, it was for investors (bonds, not stocks) "show me the inflation" and only then do we (literally) buy into the growth paradigm. If unemployment rate was the correct gauge of economic conditions, wages would accelerate (LABOR SHORTAGE!!!) leading to companies raising their prices to offset these new labor costs which they

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Jeffrey Snider profile picture
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process. In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance. As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion. In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection. In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as Head of Global Investment Research. Currently, Jeff is published nationally at RealClearMarkets, ZeroHedge, Minyanville and Yahoo!Finance. Jeff holds a FINRA Series 65 Investment Advisor License.

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