The Rose Portfolio
It is real and contains 91 investments from 3 combined brokerage accounts including 2 Roth, 1 taxable along with 9 separate stocks held privately at each company. In this last article, I discuss goals and reveal all available S&P credit ratings.
Bountiful dividends are the main priority of the Rose portfolio to generate income, thus historic dividend yield generally is a signal for purchase.
Historic Dividend Yield
When any stock has a higher than normal dividend yield it means a few things for investors:
- The company just raised the dividend beyond comprehension
- The stock price is lower than usual for many reasons.
- Due diligence must be done to determine if the company is experiencing difficulties, but I want to assume that has been done and focus on dividend yield.
Historic dividend yield is the highest yield a stock has had over many years for the dividend provided. It will be the focus of this article to find it for the stocks in this portfolio and then determine a good value price for a purchase.
At fair value most stocks will have a normal dividend yield, which is still an appropriate time to purchase most any investment. The Rose portfolio is established, and thus I have the luxury to add when at a higher or more historic yield yield to obtain a better value price. The portfolio only gets investing income from dividends or options so a good value price is an objective.
The chart below has a focus on just that. Current dividend yield is for the price on 5 December 2018. 2019 yield was used from using values provided from the subscription service Fast Graphs “FG” and using high and low prices for the dividends for the years 2012-2018 for the historic values for those past 5-6 years. Any figure shown is a calculation that I did on my own, so blame Rose for any mistake in values for the historic yield and year shown for it. Let’s be clear, you must be the one to decide using your own plan as to when you buy any investment. I have not always used this method, but I do try to use it now.
The following abbreviations were used:
M* = Morningstar analyst service. It is obtained by me from a free library source.
FV= Fair value from M*
B= Buy value from M*
Div%18 = Dividend yield for current dividend /price on Dec 5th .
Div%19= Dividend yield using the dividend estimate mostly from FG for 2019 and Dec 5th price.
Hx Yield = historic dividend yield per my estimates using the data and years mentioned.
Year @ price= the year and the price at which the yield was historic.
My cost/ share = all known current cost per share for the portfolio holdings. Those dripped and at the 9 companies are the ones not shown or remain known.
I also show sectors for each holding.
Note the lists are divided into 55 common stocks first and then the Regulated Investment Companies “RIC”s and fixed yield holdings of 36.
|Ticker||Stock||Sector||Div Y-18||E-19 DY||Yield||@price||12-5||FV||Buy||/share|
|(LMT)||LMT||Industrial||2.86%||3.15%||3.8||2014 @ 145||286.73||329||230.3||274.89|
|(MDLZ)||MDLZ||Cons-D||2.05%||2.34%||2.5||2018 @ 37.42||44.47||52||36.4|
|(MET)||MET||Financial||3.91%||4.10%||3.8||2018 @ 43.1||42.42||52||31.2|
|(MGEE)||MGEE||Utility||2.01%||2.09%||3.2||2015 @ 36.5||64.68|
|(PEP)||PEP||Cons-D||3.05%||3.31%||3.3||2017 @ 96||117.8||122||97.6|
|(PFE)||PFE||Healthcare||3.01%||3.19%||4.2||2016 @ 28.25||45.14||46||36.8||32.33|
|(PG)||PG||Cons-D||3.08%||3.12%||3.9||2018 @ 71||93.31||97||77.6||60.61|
|(PM)||PM||Cons-D||5.34%||5.51%||5.9||2018 @ 76||85.43||102||81.6|
|(UNP)||UNP||Industrial||2.00%||2.20%||3.3||2016 @ 67||153.03||148||103.6||88.36|
|(V)||V||Financial||0.63%||0.72%||1||2015 @ 49||138.64||129||90||62.06|
|(VLO)||VLO||Energy||4.02%||4.40%||5.1||2016 @ 47||79.51||106||63.6||56.48|
|(WEC)||WEC||Utility||3.02%||3.19%||3.9||2014 @ 40.16||73.28||64||51.2||45.39|
|(XEL)||XEL||Utility||2.84%||3.05%||4.4||2014 @ 27.27||52.83|
|(XOM)||XOM||Energy||4.07%||4.24%||4.5||2018 @ 72.16||79.43||90||72||88.78|
The following is part 2 of the list or the 36 RICs, which mostly are not covered by M*
|(CORR)||CORR||RE-Misc||8.34%||8.34%||9.5||2017 @ 31.5||35.98||34.65|
|(DLR)||DLR||RE-Data||3.49%||3.70%||6.8||2014 @ 48.85||113.6||3*||22.1|
|(EPR)||EPR||RE-nnn||6.20%||6.39%||7.1||2014 @ 48.38||69.66||58.29|
|(IRM)||IRM||RE-storage||6.93%||7.19%||8.5||2016 @ 23.64||33.92||36.5||25.5||32.71|
|(MRCC)||MRCC||Fin-BDC||12.40%||12.40%||14||2016 @ 10||11.29||14|
|(NRZ)||NRZ||Fin-mREIT||11.72%||11.72%||16.9||2015 @ 10.35||17.07||14.76|
|(SKT)||SKT||RE-Retail||6.08%||6.16%||7||2018 @ 19.86||23.37||29.38|
|(SPG)||SPG||RE-Retail||4.32%||4.50%||5.4||2018 @ 146||185.03||187||131||168.02|
|(STAG)||STAG||RE-Industrl||5.44%||5.52%||9||2016 @ 15||26.27||17.38|
|(TCPC)||TCPC||Fin-BDC||10.04%||10.04%||12||2016 @ 12||14.34||14.12|
|(UNIT)||UNIT||RE-Misc||12.41%||12.41%||17.4||2017 @ 13.81||19.34||15.6|
|(VTR)||VTR||RE-Hcare||5.00%||5.08%||6.6||2016 @ 46.87||63.16||63||44||57.33|
Some of the entries are in bold that show winners of beating their historic yield, again on the date Dec 5th. Those are ABBV, AVGO, BCE, CL, GIS, HD, KHC, MET, MO, OXY, SJM, and T.
The market is headed lower again today and thus might show many more to come in the future. There are also a few that beat the M* buy price and are also in bold, those being CAH, CELG and GIS. Those and numerous others have already gone below or remain near to the M* FV and could be considered for due diligence purchases.
Some others in bold are just lower than my cost/sh and I should or could be adding on, just an interesting fact.
The portfolio value “PV” was up 3.48% from October and only up 3.19% less the dividends removed. It was even in value compared to September. The end of the year and December report will be an interesting one for sure. As portfolio value is not my main focus lately, none the less I do try to remain defensive with the sector holdings which I will discuss next.
Staying Defensive by Sectors remains at Goal levels
The defensive sectors of Consumer staples, Healthcare, Communication and Utilities remain at 50% of PV even with numerous sells and buys this month, which will be revealed shortly.
The next chart shows the whole portfolio divided by sectors and the RIC divisions. 55 stocks are common and compose 74.6% of PV total and provide 55% of the income. A little goes a long way with buying RICs or high yield “HY” and 25.6% PV gives ~ 41% of the income. Please see the results below:
The following shows the stocks that provide the most PV and portfolio Income "PInc" by % total values:
There are 40 that are close or near 1% of PV with 22 of them being in defensive sectors. 14 of those are >2% of value with 10 being in defensive sectors. I did include the sectors the stocks are in in the first chart in this article to aide you in determining those tickers.
There are 36 that provide the top level of income with only 16 in defensive sectors and only 8 of those that are >2% or more.
Part of my intent is to get more income from defensive names, but it is not an easy task.
|>3%||ABBV||VZ, T, WPC|
|>2.5%||KMB, D, T, OHI||SO, D, PM|
|>2.2 %||XEL, SO, KO||NRZ, CHMI|
|MA, WPC, BA, PM|
|>2%||MRCC, ABBV,KMB,TPVG, JNJ.|
|>1.75%||MGEE,XOM, PFE, VTR||MO, RDS.B, XOM, VTR|
|>1.59%||GIS, WEC, DEO, CMI, LMT||KO, GIS, RA|
|>1.4%||MO, CSCO, HD, CAH||XEL, OXY, AJX, DNP|
|>1.3%||MCD, GPC, V|
|>1 %||BCE, PEP, CHMI, SJM, NRZ||WEC|
|>0.9%||MRCC, AMGN, DNP||TGP-b, DEO,NGL-b, CSCO,KIM, CAH|
I have started already to work towards more defensive nature for the holdings and have already calculated estimated income for 2019 with AMZA along with OHI both becoming less in income production. AMZA, most likely will cut the distribution and I will be to selling some OHI. I will not replace those. T is really down in value and in 2019 I believe it will predominate even more for that and might even increase its dividend as expected if the merger with TWX is allowed.
Many investments are not shown and I will look for quality stocks among them and try to give them a stronger role for quality defensive income in the future. PFE is one I do already have my sights set on increasing in that role. I am also building BIP as a utility and might look for another healthcare stock.
All in all the portfolio is still performing well and providing reliable income.
The November income was up 17.76% from 2017 but is the weakest quarterly group of stocks to produce income for the portfolio. It was as expected.
The following are the stocks that provided income and the amounts per share along with % total received for the month:
|Div /Share||Ticker||% total|
AMZA, RA, OXLC, STAG, and EPR pay monthly, so the contribution actually represents more yearly than shown here for just the month. To be complete, I will mention, I haven’t shown DNP which pays 0.065 per share and also pays monthly. It is one I don’t let accumulate in the portfolio and that income goes directly to the checking account. It represents about 1.9% of the total for this month. It is a CEF, or closed end fund and has a frozen distribution.
The portfolio dividend yield at the November ending value is 4.4%, but each month is different, but it does take a lot to move this portfolio value. Lately the whipsaw action has been getting old and I find it best to stick to the objective of bountiful dividends each month.
Transactions for November
18 different stocks were involved as :
13 add ons, 1 trim and 4 sold out of completely.
Price /sh = the price paid with fees included per share. Note that more than one purchase may be shown which could be on different days or in different accounts but all belong in the Rose portfolio of 91.
C/sh = the original cost per share including any fees
net/sh = Net gain per share
1st owned =when the investment was purchased
|Pen Mac prf||PMT.b||24.95|
|Wash Pr-Prf h||WPG-h||19.89||19.91|
|all||Alibaba||BABA||157.37||145.87||11.5||6 wks 2018|
I trimmed out SJM from a Roth for a small gain and should be announcing in December it was purchased in the taxable account for near or at $100 per share + fees, which is my goal price for close to a historic yield.
November was a bountiful good month and I give thanks for many wonderful increasing dividends and distributions for the portfolio.
I am using historic yield for purchases and continuing with defensive sectors for building positions representing no real changes in my plan. I continue on with happiness as I continue to follow many instructive writers on SA for maintaining my RIC positions, BDCs and real estate REITs. The Wheel of Fortune is the service I enjoy learning in and recommend it highly for real time investing, learning and a supermarket of ideas. I do what works best for me while others find success in options or trading. I am having fun and learning something new almost every day.
I smile when others might not, as I collect dividends for the well sought out income bought at value using due diligence and now historic yields and it works for me.
Disclosure: I am/we are long SJM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: + 91 stocks in my profile and in the charts