54 Top Nasdaq December Dividend Dears By Yield, Upside, And Net Gains

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Includes: AMAT, AVGO, GILD, HAS, KHC, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MXIM, PAYX, QCOM, STX, SWKS, VOD, WDC
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

"The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization." 54 pay dividends.

Top 10 broker target-estimated Nasdaq net gains as of 12/14/18 ranged 26.15%-59.42% from HAS, KHC, GILD, KLAC, MCHP, VOD, SWKS, AMAT, and WDC.

54 Dividend-paying Nasdaq 100 index stocks ranged in estimated yield from 0.44% to 6.54%. Top 10, KLAC, PAYX, GILD, MXIM, AVGO, QCOM, WDC, KHC, VOD, and STX averaged 4.46%.

Nasdaq 100 index top 10 firms by broker target price upsides, HAS, KHC, GILD, KLAC, VOD, MCHP, SWKS,LRCX, AMAT, and WDC averaged 38.91% in broker-estimated price gains.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five top-yield Nasdaq dividend stocks showed 13.03% more net-gain than $5k invested in all 10.  Low price little stocks ruled the December Nasdaq 54.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 26.15% To 59.42% Net Gains From December's Nasdaq Top 10

Five of 10 top yield Nasdaq dividend stocks were identified as being among the top 10 net gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). So, our yield-based forecast for Nasdaq 54 divi-dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 50% accurate.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1k invested in each the high-yield stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst-estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data points. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. 10 probable profit-generating trades projected to December 14, 2019 were:

Western Digital Corp. (WDC) was projected to net $594.23 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 31 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% more than the market as a whole.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) was projected to net $489.95 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 25 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% more than the market as a whole.

Lam Research (LRCX) was projected to net $479.59, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% more than the market as a whole.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) was projected to net $409.90, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from 29 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.

Vodafone Group (VOD) was projected to net $402.02, based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.

Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) netted $389.24 based on a median target price estimate from 32 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% less than the market as a whole.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) was projected to net $377.61 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from 15 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% more than the market as a whole.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) was projected to net $327.87, based on a median target estimates from 26 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% over the market as a whole.

The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) was projected to net $315.86 based on a median target price estimate from 23 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.

Hasbro Inc. (HAS) was expected to net $261.47, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 17 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 39.17% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 27% more than the market as a whole.

Source: scorpionshoesblog.co.uk

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

54 Nasdaq Dividend Stocks By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Nasdaq Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top 10 Nasdaq dividend stocks selected 12/14/18 by yield represented five of 11 Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Seagate Technology (STX) [1] was the first of six technology firms in the top 10. The other five technology representatives placed fourth, to seventh, and 10th. They were, Western Digital Corp. (WDC) [4], Qualcomm (QCOM) [5], Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) [6], Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (MXIM) [7], KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) [10].

In second place the lone communication services representative, Vodafone Group (VOD) [2], was followed by a single Consumer defensive representative in third place, Kraft Heinz (KHC) [3].

Finally, a lone healthcare representative placed of industrial representatives placed eighth, Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) [8], and a lone industrials firm was ninth, Paychex (PAYX) [9], to complete the Nasdaq 100 top 10 pack of 54 by yield for December.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top 10 NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs Showed 25.15% To 56.27% Upsides To December 2019, With (31) Two Downsiders At -0.76% And -3.46%

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted A 13.03% Advantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Nasdaq Top 10 Dividend Stocks To December 2019

10 top Nasdaq 100 dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top 10 Nasdaq dividend stocks represented five of the 11 Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected Five Lowest-Priced of the Top 10 Highest-Yield Nasdaq 100 Stocks (32) To Fetch 32.7% Vs. (33) 28.93% Net Gains by All 10 by December 2019

Source: YCharts

$5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 Nasdaq dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 13.03% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all 10. The third lowest priced Nasdaq top yield stock, Western Digital Corp. (WDC), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 59.42%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price Nasdaq top 10 dividend stocks December 14 were: Vodafone Group (VOD), Seagate Technology (STX), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC), Maxim Integrated Products Inc. (MXIM), with prices ranging from 20.12 to $52.78.

Five higher-priced Nasdaq dividend stocks for December 14 were: Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Paychex (PAYX), KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), whose prices ranged from $57.62 to $254.83.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Nasdaq dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CSCO, INTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.