94 Mid-December 10%+ Yield Dividend WallStars Enjoy Jolly Target Gains

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Includes: AHT, AI, ANDX, AVH, CCLP, CPLP, CVRR, DLNG, GNL, GOV-OLD, HCLP, LMRK, MDLY, MFA, MITT, MMLP, NGL, PBI, PER, SDLP, SIR, SNR, SPH, SRLP, SXCP, TEO
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

WallStars all show positive broker target-price upsides. 94 US stocks displayed 10%+ forward yield, $2.00+ prices, and $100M+ market-caps as of 12/14/18. Yields above 13.5% narrowed the list to 30.

WallStar target-estimated Mid-December top 10 net gains ranged 61.67%-130.19% for AVH, SRLP, SXCP, CPLP, CVRR, HCLP, MDLY, CCLP TEO, and top pick, DLNG.

30 Top stocks ranged in estimated annual yield from 13.51%-26.39%. Top 10, AI, MMLP, SDLP, MDLY, HCLP, CCLP, SMLP, PER, GOV, CVRR, and topper, DLNG averaged 21.08% yield.

Top 10 firms by WallStar target price upsides AVH, SPLP, SXCP, CPLP, CVRR, HCLP, CCLP, MDLY, TEO, and top stock, DLNG averaged a 74.95% estimated one-year price gain.

$5k invested 12/14/18 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ top-yield dividend stocks showed 8.24% more net-gain than from $5k in all 10.  The low-price smaller WallStars dominated Mid-December's 10%+yield pack.

Source: YCharts.com

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculate 61.67% To 130.19% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By Mid-December 2019

Five of 10 top 10%+ Yield WallStars were among the top 10 gainers for the coming year (based on analyst one-year targets). So, this forecast for 10%+ Yields, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 50% accurate.

Projections based on dividends from $1k invested in the highest yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019 data points. Note: one-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). 10 probable profit-generating trades to Mid-December, 2019 were:

Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG) was projected to net $1,301.90 based on dividends, plus a median of target estimates from seven brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% above the market as a whole.

Telecom Argentina SA (TEO) was projected to net $1,146.60, based on target price estimates from 10 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% under the market as a whole.

CSI Compressco LP (CCLP) was projected to net $1,005.86, based on a median target price estimate from six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% more than the market as a whole.

Medley Management Inc. (MDLY) was projected to net $1,004.39, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% more than the market as a whole.

Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP) was projected to net $989.46, based on a median target price estimate from 16 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 49% more than the market as a whole.

CVR Refining LP (CVRR) was projected to net $925.50, based on the median of target price estimates from seven analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 44% more than the market as a whole.

Capital Product Partners LP (CPLP) netted $791.16 based on the median of target price estimates from eight analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% more than the market as a whole.

SunCoke Energy Partners LP (SXCP) was projected to net $742.62 based the median of target price estimates from four analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% over the market as a whole.

Sprague Resources LP (SRLP) was projected to net $636.08 based the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 24% over the market as a whole.

Avianca Holdings SA (AVH) was projected to net $616.68, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% under the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 91.6% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 29% more than the market as a whole.

Source: thepediablog.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

94 10%+ Yield WallStars By Price Target Upsides

Source: YCharts.com

94 10%+ Yield WallStars By Yield

Source: YCharts.com

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top 10%+ Yield WallStars By Sector

Top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 12/14/18 by yield represented four of 11 Morningstar sectors.

Top stock on the list was one of seven in the real estate sector, Select Income REIT (SIR) [1]. The remaining real estate representatives placed fourth to seventh, ninth, and tenth: MFA Financial Inc (MFA) [4], Landmark Infrastructure Partners LP (LMRK) [5], AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) [6], Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. (AHT) [7], New Senior Investment Group Inc. (SNR) [9], and Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) [10].

A single energy dog placed second, Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX)[2], while a lone industrials representative placed third, Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) [3].

Finally, the solo utilities representative placed eighth, Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) [8] to complete the 10%+ Yield WallStar top 10 for Mid-December.

Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten 10%+ Yield WallStars Showed 46.67% To 105.80% Upsides To Mid-December 2019; (22) Lowest Downsides Were Five at 0%.

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast An 8.24% Advantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Yield WallStars To Mid-December 2019

10 top 10%+ Yield WallStars were culled by yield for this pre-monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

Source: YCharts.com

As noted above, top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars selected 12/14/18 showing the highest dividend yields represented four of 11 sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected Five Lowest-Priced of the Top 10 Highest-Yield 10%+WallStars (25) Delivering 73.60% Vs. (26) 67.99% Net Gains From All 10 By Mid-December 2019

Source: YCharts.com

$5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield WallStars collection were predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 8.24% more net gain than $5k invested as $.5k in all 10. The fourth lowest priced 10%+ top yield WallStar, Dynagas LNG Partners LP, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 130.19%.

Source: YCharts.com

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of December 14 were: SandRidge Permian Trust (PER), Seadrill Partners LLC (SDLP), CSI Compressco LP, Dynagas LNG Partners LP, Medley Management Inc., with prices ranging from $2.06 to $4.10.

Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend WallStars from December 14 were: Hi-Crush Partners LP, Government Properties Income Trust (GOV-OLD), Arlington Asset Investment Co. (AI), NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL, CVR Refining LP, Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP), whose prices ranged from $4.23 to $11.09.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Yield WallStar purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.