99 International Aristocrats Make A 2019 Stocks To Hold List

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Includes: BCE, BTI, CAH, CM, CNQ, CVX, ENB, ENGGY, IMBBY, MFGP, PRU, SKVKY, SU, T, WPP, XOM
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

International Dividend Aristocrat stocks have raised dividends for at least five straight years (Canadian firms), 10 years (E.U.-based firms) or 25 years (U.S. companies).

Top ten net gains from a December survey of 99 International S&P Dividend Aristocrats were posted by SU; XOM; T; CVX; CAH; WPP; ENB; PRU; CNQ; BTI.

Top Yield 30 December International Dividend Aristocrats showed broker estimated price target-upsides ranging from -3.93% to 63.81% as of 12/26/18.

30 Top Yields for International Dividend Aristocrats stocks ranged 3.6%-11.75% as of the 12/26/18 survey. This list originated 10/28/18 from Kiplinger.com titled  "101 Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for 2019 and Beyond".

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five November top-yield CCC stocks showed 52%, LESS net gain than from $5k invested in all ten.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Project 31.06% To 70.06% Net Gains For Top Ten International Aristocrats Come December 2019

Four of ten top dividend-yielding International Aristocrat stocks (tinted gray in the chart above) were among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. So, this month, the dog strategy for the International Aristos graded out with 40% accuracy.

The following probable profit-generating trades were based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks. Those dividends and their aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2018-19 data points. Note: one year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to December 26, 2019, were:

British American Tobacco (BTI) was projected to net $700.63, based on a median target price estimate from five analysts, combined with projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 6% less than the market as a whole.

Canadian National Resources (CNQ) was projected to net $529.36, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% more than the market as a whole.

Prudential PLC (PRU) was projected to net $489.36, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from eighteen analysts plus dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% more than the market as a whole.

Enbridge Inc (ENB) was projected to net $482.38, based on dividends, plus the median of annual price estimates from eighteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 44% less than the market as a whole.

WPP PLC (WPP) was projected to net $464.60, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% more than the market as a whole.

Cardinal Health (CAH) was projected to net $420.51, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seventeen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% less than the market as a whole.

Chevron (CVX) was projected to net $401.43 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-five analysts, combined with projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 13% more than the market as a whole.

AT&T Inc (T) was projected to net $341.11, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 56% less than the market as a whole.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was projected to net $333.28, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

Suncor Energy (SU) was projected to net $310.59, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from twenty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 44.73% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.

Top 30 International Aristocrats Represented 10 Of 11 Sectors In December

A list from Kiplinger published as of 10/28/18 sorted by yield (dividend / price) calculated from here 12/26/18 for ninety-nine stocks from 10 of eleven Morningstar sectors contributed to the various actionable conclusions discussed in this article.

The International Dividend Aristocrats were documented on Kiplinger.com in October. International dividend stocks with long track records rising payments have been known to produce solid returns over long periods of time. Thus, they help investors weather short periods of market turbulence and so prevent sleepless nights of worry.

This is a look at the most reliable long-term dividend stocks in the world. Dubbed the "Dividend Aristocrats," they have raised dividends for at least five straight years (Canadian firms), 10 years (E.U.-based firms) or 25 years (U.S. companies). The list as of 10/28/18 provided the subjects for this article. Numeric calculations for the list were made as of 12/26/18 from YCharts data.

Source: lifewithdogs.tv

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

99 International Dividend Aristocrats

As mentioned, the international dividend aristocrats were selected because they have raised dividends for at least five straight years (Canadian firms), 10 years (E.U.-based firms) or 25 years (U.S. companies). Their ranking by yield is shown below.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusion (12-21) Dividend Yield Metrics Selected 10 Top International Aristocrat Stocks

Top ten International Aristocrats stocks selected 10/28/18 showing top yields as of 12/26/18, represented seven sectors in the Morningstar eleven sector scheme: (1) consumer defensive [2 listed]; (2) consumer Cyclical [1 listed]; (3) energy [1 listed]; (4) communication services [2 listed]; (5) financial services [2 listed]; (6) utilities [1 listed]; (7) technology [1 listed].

Tops were the two consumer defensive sector representatives, Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY) [1], and British American Tobacco (BRI) [2].

In third place was the consumer cyclical firm, WPP PLC (WPP) [3].

A lone energy firm claimed the fourth, position, Enbridge (ENB) [4].

Two communication services firms placed fifth, and eighth, AT&T Inc (T) [5], and BCE Inc (BCE) [8].

The first of two Financial Services outfits placed sixth, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SKCKY) [6]. The other bank placed tenth, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) [10].

The loner of Utilities, placed seventh by yield, Enagas (OTCPK:ENGGY) [7]. Finally, the lone technology representative placed ninth on the list, Micro Focus International (MFGP) [9] and completed this list for December.

Actionable Conclusions: (22-31) Ten International Aristocrats Showed 28.65% To 63.81% Upsides, While (32) One Showed A Downside To December 2019

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Brokers Estimated A 6.8% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced International Aristocrats Stocks To December 2019

Ten top International Aristocrat Dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update from here. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten International Aristocrats stocks selected 10/28/18 showing the highest dividend yields as of 12/26/18 accounting represented seven sectors in the Morningstar eleven sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield International Aristocrats (33) Delivering 14.09% Vs. (34) 29.36% Net Gains by All Ten by December 2019

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten International Aristocrats kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 52.00% LESS net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of all ten. The seventh lowest priced International Aristocrats dividend stock, British American Tobacco (BTI) showed the best analyst-augured net gain of 70.06%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced International Aristocrats dividend stocks of December 26 were: Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (OTCPK:SKVKY); Enagas (OTCPK:ENGGY); Micro Focus International (MFGP)); AT&T Inc. (T); Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY), with prices ranging from $9.54 to $29.23.

Five higher-priced International Aristocrats dividend stocks for December 26 were: Enbridge (ENB); British American Tobacco (BTI); BCE Inc (BCE); WPP PLC (WPP); Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), whose prices ranged from $29.42 to $73.61.

That distinction between the five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Champion Dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from IndexArb.com; YCharts.com; Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: lifewithdogs.tv

Disclosure: I am/we are long T. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.