EUR/CHF: Downside Bias Remains

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Hedge Insider


  • EUR/CHF has continued to the downside. It is of the author's opinion that more downside is in store.
  • The pair is likely to hit the 1.12000 in the near term. After that, EUR/CHF will probably meet 1.11850.
  • The 1.11850 level lines up with the intra-day low set on September 10, 2018.
  • If EUR/CHF does indeed drop to 1.11850, a positive retracement is likely, but we should not rule out the potential for the pair to drop to as low as 1.10885 over the medium term.

In a recent article posted on December 18, 2018, I predicted that the EUR/CHF currency pair would fall to 1.12000. At the time it was trading at around 1.12600. Today, it is trading at around 1.12300, after some short-lived upside in the days immediately following my article.

Further, on December 28, 2018, the pair saw an intra-day low of 1.12149; very close to my 1.12000 target. In this article, I reinforce my prediction that the EUR/CHF will hit 1.12000 in the short term. In addition to this target, I believe that the pair will target 1.11850, which was the intra-day low set on September 10, 2018.

The chart below shows EUR/CHF on the daily candlestick chart, juxtaposed with the SXY (a Swiss franc currency index, courtesy of and EXY (a euro currency index, also courtesy of In the first instance, we can notice that the Swiss franc index (marked in red) is making higher highs and higher lows. The euro index (marked in blue) meanwhile sunk to a lower low (in terms of the past few trading days).

EUR/CHF: Euro Struggling vs. Swiss Franc

(The chart above was created by the author using trading tools provided by The same applies with respect to all further charts presented in this article hereafter.)

While a longer-term perspective is also important, the immediate short-term does not look favorable for the EUR/CHF pair. Not only is the Swiss franc index making headway (to the upside), but the euro is also simultaneously flat-lining. The EUR/CHF pair itself is therefore dropping, and the round 1.12000 level remains in sight.

The chart below illustrates the current price of EUR/CHF in relation to both the 1.12000 level (marked in red) and the 1.11850 level mentioned earlier in this article. The 1.11850 level lines up with the intra-day lows found on September 7, 2018 and September

This article was written by

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Providing commentary and analysis, principally focused on global macro, foreign exchange, and equities as an asset class. Primary interests include equity investing from an international perspective, and FX fair values.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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