Welcome to the December 2018 edition of Electric Vehicle company news. December saw yet another new record month for global electric car sales and a huge amount of positive news. In particular it's clear most car companies are gearing up fast to meet China's new ZEV credit scheme starting in 2019. Not surprising given China is the largest global car market, and sells about ~49% of all global electric cars.
Global electric car sales as of end November 2018
Global electric car sales finished November 2018 with more than 237,000 sales for the month, up 73% on November 2017. Year to date sales are up ~68% (no update this month) on last year, with 2018 year to date sales at ~1.8m and market share at 2.0%, with one month left to be reported on. It is now looking like 2018 global electric car sales will be more than 2m, and about 2% market share or slightly higher. 2017 sales were ~1.28m.
Of note, 67% of all global electric car sales so far in 2018 were pure electric.
China electric car sales were more than 140,000 in November 2018, up 59% on November 2017 and yet another new record. Electric car market share in China for November 2018 was a record breaking 6.3%, and is at 3.8% YTD.
Current subsidies in China were reduced by 20% in 2017 and will be reduced by 40% in 2019 and 100% by 2021. China's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credit system was announced on September 28, 2017, and will begin in 2019 with 10% of credits (12% in 2020) required from new energy vehicles (NEVs). That translates to ~4-5% of EV sales as market share for 2019. We also are expecting an announcement at some stage as to when China will ban ICE vehicles, noting BYD Chairman Wang thinks by 2030. Others think it will be 2035.
Europe electric car sales were 37,500 in November 2018, 31% higher than in November 2017. Europe electric car market share was 3.2% in November 2018 (YTD is 2.4%). Norway still leads the world with an incredible 57% market share of electric cars sold in November.
US electric car sales were not yet updated for November 2018. Electric car market share in US for November 2018 was not yet updated (2.5% in October), with YTD market share at about 1.9% (October figure).
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for November 2018
Note: Oct. should say YTD.
Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 30m by 2030, 60m by 2040
Source: Bloomberg research
EV market news for December 2018
On December 4 Forbes reported:
Chinese company says it will soon cross $100 battery threshold, slaying the gasoline car. Envision Energy will produce batteries for $100 per kilowatt hour by 2020, the Shanghai company's founder and CEO said at Stanford University, predicting the price will drop to $50 only five years later and end the reign of the internal-combustion engine.....Lei predicts fossil-fuel cars will disappear "overnight" when EVs become cheaper.
My view is that this is very significant news - It means electric cars can be the same price as ICE cars by 2020 (my model was forecasting 2022); which if it occurs should cause a larger surge in EV sales after 2020, timing well with hundreds of new electric car models. Also it means battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will take further market share from hybrids. All great news for EV metal demand and EV metal miners.
On December 11 Mercedes Blog reported: "Daimler thinks that by 2025 approximately 15% to 25% of total sales will be covered by an electric variant."
On December 12 Bloomberg reported:
China electric-car gold rush lures hopefuls as Tesla push looms. The gold rush that is China’s electric-car market is getting its latest entrant as a slew of local manufacturers fight for a foothold ahead of Tesla Inc.’s planned offensive. Xpeng Motors started deliveries of its first commercial model on Wednesday, four years after its founding by entrepreneur He Xiaopeng and partners in Guangzhou, southern China. The G3 sport utility vehicle gives Xpeng instant credibility and revenue, while hundreds of other startups are still working on their prototypes and competing for investors’ funds. At stake is a market that is set to balloon to hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades as China’s government promotes greener vehicles at the expense of gas guzzlers. Local brands are trying to gain relevance and secure their survival before Elon Musk’s Tesla starts building cars in Shanghai next year and global giants from Volkswagen AG to Ford Motor Co. flood the market with their locally produced electrified models.
On December 14 The New York Times reported:
California requires new city buses to be electric by 2029. California on Friday became the first state to mandate a full shift to electric buses on public transit routes, flexing its muscle as the nation’s leading environmental regulator and bringing battery-powered, heavy-duty vehicles a step closer to the mainstream. Starting in 2029, mass transit agencies in California will only be allowed to buy buses that are fully electric under a rule adopted by the state’s powerful clean air agency. The agency, the California Air Resources Board, said it expected that municipal bus fleets would be fully electric by 2040......Under the new rule, the state’s transit agencies will need to start updating their fleets well before 2029. Starting in 2023, a quarter of their new buses must be electric, and by 2026 that requirement will rise to half of all new buses. About 150 electric buses run on California’s roads today, a small fraction of the state’s fleet of 12,000 buses.
On December 14 Automotive News China reported:
China to cut tariffs on U.S. light vehicles to 15%, Trump official says. China has agreed to cut tariffs on U.S.-built light vehicles and auto parts to 15 percent from the current 40 percent." An earlier Reuters story stated: "White House adviser expects China's tariffs on U.S. autos to fall to zero.
On December 18 SmallCaps reported:
BMW and Porsche challenge Tesla with three-minute electric vehicle charging. BMW and Porsche look set to rival Tesla in the sustainable transportation market after the pair unveiled a charging station that can power an electric vehicle (EV) to travel 100 kilometers in less than three minutes. The ultra-fast prototype charger has a capacity of 450 kilowatts, more than triple Tesla’s superchargers. Test vehicles using the charger, including a BMW i3, were able to get to an 80% state of charge in just 15 minutes....The new Porsche Taycan model, due out early 2019, can reportedly travel 400km on a 20 minute charge.
BMW and Porsche now have 450kW FastCharge - 100kms in 3minutes
On December 21 China Automotive News reported:
EV startups, glut prod Beijing to dial back on new plants. More than 400 EV startups have emerged in the past few years.....It is estimated that left unchecked, these companies, along with existing automakers, will increase annual EV production capacity in China to 20 million in 2020. That’s 10 times the government’s target of 2 million a year. Will the commission’s new policy slow EV projects in China? It might in the long term by pushing automakers to build EVs at current plants and deter some aspirants. But not in the near future.....With a mix of global automakers and new startups, China’s EV sector seems certain to keep forging ahead with new plants over the next few years. But the road ahead also appears dotted with a few short circuits and burnouts.
On December 23 Green Car Reports reported:
All-electric helicopter makes record flight. An independent engineering company in California this month set the Guinness World Record for the farthest flight for an electric helicopter of 34.5 miles (30 nautical miles). The flight, which started at Los Alamitos Army Airfield, took just over 22 minutes at about 92 mph (80 knots) and an altitude of 800 feet. The company, Tier 1 Engineering, is working to develop an electrically-powered helicopter for Lung Biotechnology that won't contribute to air pollution to deliver human organs for transplant. The helicopter is a converted Robinson R44 helicopter with about 67 kilowatt hours (1,100 pounds) of lithium polymer batteries from Brammo, the electric motorcycle company that was bought by Cummins last year.
Guinness World Record for the farthest flight for an electric helicopter
On December 26 Green Car Reports reported:
Forget big V-8s and diesels: Why electric trucks will be great for towing. the electric pickups on the way from Tesla, Rivian, and others, provided they can overcome the significant range and charging concerns, are likely to boast some seriously competitive numbers. Certainly not everyone with towing needs is going to be able to forget about diesels and V-8s; but for those with occasional weekend-towing needs, electric pickups could work very, very well. Rivian claims that its R1T pickup, for example, will have a tow rating of 11,000 pounds and peak payload of 1764 pounds, according to the startup electric-vehicle maker.....With the capability to deliver peak torque almost instantly, and the ability to modulate power from individual motors more effectively as part of traction-control systems, electric trucks are inherently better-suited to launch confidently up such a ramp—pulling a trailer up a slick boat launch, for instance.
On December 26 Green Car Reports reported:
Chargepoint partners with Greenlots to expand access for drivers. the largest charging network, ChargePoint, has announced a roaming partnership with Greenlots, another of the oldest charging networks in the U.S. to allow subscribers to each network use each other's chargers. Such agreements are accelerating, with ChargePoint also announcing agreements with EV Box in Europe and FLO in Canada in October. ChargePoint made a commitment at the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco in September to build charging spaces for up to 2.5 million electric cars globally.
On December 27 Green Car Reports reported:
Opinion: Expiring tax credits hurt U.S. automakers, favor imports. After an automaker builds its 200,000th car, the tax credit begins to wind down. Up to six months later, it gets cut in half for six months, and is then halved again for another six months, until it ends entirely. At the time the tax-credit structure was conceived, it wasn't clear which automakers might be the first to make large investments in battery production and thus be first to lose federal tax credits. It's now clear that the answer is Tesla and General Motors. The best example is the new Hyundai Kona Electric, which the Korean automaker priced to match the Chevy Bolt EV at $37,495 when it hits dealerships in January. For three months, the two models, with similar range ratings (a little longer for the Hyundai), will sell side-by-side, for an effective price of $29,995 for buyers who qualify for the full credit. Starting April 1, when the tax credit for GM buyers drops to $3,750, GM will either have to drop the price on the Bolt EV an equivalent amount, or buyers will have to pay the difference—giving them 3,750 reasons to choose the import instead.
EV company news
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
On December 6 Teslarati reported:
Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to begin in second half of 2019: report. The development of Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 continues to move at a rapid pace, with recent reports suggesting that electric car production in the upcoming facility could begin as early as the second half of 2019. Provided that there are no delays in the construction of the factory itself, and provided that Tesla can ship and set up its production lines on time, the latter half of 2019 could signal the beginning of Model 3 production in China.
On December 7 The China Daily reported: "Tesla accelerates plans for 'Gigafactory'....."Production in China will be designated only for local customers." In July, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk signed an agreement in Shanghai to open Tesla's "Gigafactory 3" in the city, with the capacity to produce 500,000 electric vehicles a year.
On December 8 CleanTechnica reported: "Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition — 10 CleanTechnica charts." Interesting to note the Tesla Model 3 sales in November ranked it as the 6th most popular of 'all US car models' sold. In September it reached as high as 4th.
Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition in 2018
On December 15 Electrek reported:
Tesla’s new Megapack to debut at giant energy storage project in California. Tesla is working on a new energy storage system called ‘Megapack’ Electrek can now confirm that it’s a large container-size energy storage system. According to Tesla’s plan, they will deploy 449 Megapacks at the site. The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined.
On December 20 Electrek reported: "Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he will consider buying GM factory in Ohio as it shuts down next year."
On December 25 Teslarati reported: "Tesla owners receive Holiday deliveries amid Q4’s end-of-quarter push."
On December 26 Telarati reported: "Tesla Model 3 demand ‘looks very strong into 2019 and beyond,’ says Wall St analyst. Ives noted that the strong demand for the Model 3 would likely reduce the company’s need to raise capital again in the near future."
On December 27 Teslarati reported: "Tesla Model 3 wins Detroit News’ 2018 Car of the Year award: ‘It is Apple on wheels’."
On December 6 Bloomberg reported: "Warren Buffett-backed electric vehicle maker plans battery unit IPO. Listing to take place by end of 2022, location not yet decided."
On December 21 Automotive News China reported:
BYD opens electric bus plant in France. The 10 million-euro (78 million yuan) factory can build up to 200 buses annually. The first two single-deck electric buses off the production line were delivered to the Beauvais city government, BYD said. The electric buses can drive up to 160 kilometers a day after one charge. The Beauvais factory is BYD's second electric bus assembly plant in mainland Europe. A plant in Komarom, Hungary, started production in April 2017. BYD said it has confirmed orders for more than 600 electric buses in Europe and has delivered more than 35,000 electric buses globally.
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) (OTC:BCCMY, HK:1958), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. [SAIC] (CH:600104) (SAIC includes Roewe, MG, Baojun, Maxus)
BAIC is currently ranked the global number 3 with 8% market share. BAIC is the number 2 selling electric car manufacturer in China with 15% market share. SAIC is number 3 in China with 7% market share.
On December 7 Automotive News China reported: "Daimler weighs a larger stake in BAIC joint venture, sources say....Daimler expressed an interest in increasing its holding to at least 65 percent from 49 percent."
On November 13 Automotive News China reported:
SAIC to launch ride-hailing services. SAIC Motor Corp., a major state-owned automaker, said Monday it is about to launch ride-hailing services in China. SAIC said it will supply vehicles, repair and maintenance, auto financing and insurance services for car drivers who sign onto the ride-hailing provider -- Xiangdao Chuxing. Among Chinese carmakers, Zhejiang Geely Holdings Group and BAIC Motor Corp. have also launched ride-hailing services in China. Geely is also setting up a ride-hailing joint venture in the east China city of Hangzhou with Daimler AG to expand its presence in ride-hailing market currently dominated by Didi Chuxing.
On December 18 China Automotive News reported:
BMW launches ride-hailing in Chengdu. BMW AG started offering ride-hailing services Friday in the southwest China city of Chengdu, becoming the first foreign carmaker to do so in the Chinese city. A fleet of 200 BMW 5-series sedans -- plug-in hybrids and gasoline models -- were dispatched under the service. Customers can use BMW’s proprietary mobile phone app -- dubbed ReachNow -- to reserve or instantly book a ride-hailing service.
Nissan is currently ranked number 6 for global electric car sales with 5% market share, and Renault is ranked global number 11 with 3% market share. Nissan is ranked 3 in Europe and Renault is ranked 4.
An interesting October 2018 article from the SMH reported:
Nissan plans to be "trigger" for electric vehicle boom. Motor company Nissan plans to make one-third of all its vehicles sold in Australia electric by the mid-2020s, despite the lack of subsidies or government incentives for consumers to switch to EVs.
On December 21 Automotive News China reported:
Renault to acquire interest in Jiangling Motors' EV subsidiary. Renault signed a deal with Jingling Motors Electric Vehicle Co. to acquire a major stake in the EV subsidiary of Chinese automaker Jiangling Motors Group. The deal for "a significant stake" in JMEV will help Renault expand its presence in China’s electric vehicle market, the French automaker said Thursday. Renault expects to close the deal in 2019.
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
GM/Chevrolet is currently ranked the number 8 global electric car manufacturer with 3% market share. They are the number 2 ranked electric car seller in the US with ~11% market share (October figure).
On November 27 Clean Technica reported:
GM may finally be serious about electric vehicles.....GM is closing five plants and laying off nearly 15,000 employees..... it’s going to get worse for legacy automakers soon. By 2020, Tesla will have the $35,000 Model 3 and could be spooling up production for the Model Y and truck. If a large number of buyers hear about these new electric models and decide to hold off purchasing a new gas car to see what is brought to market, that drop alone could be enough to put a legacy automaker that hasn’t created compelling electric options of their own into a tailspin.
On November 30 Forbes reported:
GM must adapt or die: A lesson for U.S. automakers......The car manufacturer claims that through these cost reductions, it will achieve $6 billion in savings by the end of 2020. With those savings, GM says it intends to double its spending on the development of electric cars (EVs), and self-driving vehicles, but also reinvest in higher-margin sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossovers.
A story I missed last month - On November 9 The Drive reported:
Volkswagen prepares for mass production of $23,000 electric vehicle: Report. Volkswagen is reportedly planning to sell an entry-level electric vehicle for less than 20,000 euros, or approximately $23,000. Volkswagen's first production-ready I.D. EV, based on the 2016 I.D. hatchback concept, will debut in 2019.
On November 29 Reuters reported:
Volkswagen planning new North America factory for electric vehicles. Scott Keogh, the newly appointed CEO of Volkswagen Group of America, said a new plant was needed to build a vehicle yet to be revealed under the Volkswagen brand, priced between $30,000-$40,000, that is due in 2020.
On December 4 Seeking Alpha reported:
Volkswagen says it will develop no more gas-powered cars after 2026. Volkswagen says it will develop its final generation of vehicles using combustion engine technology in 2026, and focus instead on electric cars. “In the year 2026 will be the last product start on a combustion engine platform,” strategy chief Michael Jost said today at an automotive conference at VW’s headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany.
On December 7 Yahoo reported:
Skoda confirms nine electrified models by end of 2020. Skoda is the latest manufacturer to announce its ambitious aims for the electrification of its models, with nine expected to go on sale in the next two years. Speaking at the unveiling of the firm’s new Scala hatchback in Tel Aviv, Israel, Skoda’s chairman of the board of management Bernhard Maier confirmed the firm’s electric aims. The first electrified Skoda to go on sale will be a plug-in variant of its flagship Superb, of which a facelift is due in the middle of next year. SUVs – namely the Kodiaq and Karoq – will likely receive plug-in hybrid offerings, too. The Citigo-e city car will be the first completely electric model by Skoda and is expected to go on sale at the end of 2019. The electric Citigo is expected to have a range of 200km (125 miles).
Skoda (Volkswagen Group) confirms nine electrified models by end of 2020
On December 9 Yahoo reported on the latest news on the Porche Mission E concept car:
Porsche Taycan rendered imagining 600-bhp super electric sedan. The Porsche Taycan will have two permanent asynchronous electric motors – one at each axle. They will develop a combined output of at least 600 bhp. The performance will undoubtedly live up to Porsche customers' expectations, reaching 62 miles per hour in less than 3.5 seconds and 124 mph in just 12 seconds. So that the range does not suffer, the Taycan will incorporate a lithium-ion battery with a capacity of 95 kilowatt hours. This setup will allow the sedan to travel more than 310 miles between charges......350-kW fast charger that will allow it to recover to an 80-percent level in just 15 minutes.
Porsche Taycan 2019
On December 14 Electrek reported:
Audi announces €14 billion investment with focus on electric vehicles. By 2025, Audi says that it will offer “approximately 20 electrified models, about half of which will have all-electric drive systems.” The Audi e-tron SUV is the first and it will be followed by a Sportback version and the recently unveiled e-tron GT.
Geely is currently ranked the number 12 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 3% global market share.
On December 21 Automotive News China reported:
Geely, Great Wall to add plants in China. Geely, China’s largest passenger vehicle maker, received approved to construct a 9 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) assembly plant in Wuhan. The factory will initially build up to 150,000 vehicles a year after starting production. It will assemble gasoline, hybrid and electric vehicles, according to the Hubei government. Great Wall, China’s largest light truck manufacturer, won permission to construct a 2 billion yuan assembly plant in Pinghu city in east China’s Zhejiang province, the Zhejiang provincial government said on its website last week. The factory will have annual production capacity of 100,000 vehicles, including 50,000 EVs.....In July, Great Wall signed an agreement with BMW Group to establish a joint venture in the east China city of Zhangjiagang. The partnership, due to launch production in 2021, will build EVs for BMW’s Mini brand as well as Great Wall’s proprietary marques.
Toyota is currently ranked the number 13 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 2% global market share.
On December 26 Green Car Reports reported:
UX small crossover could spawn fully electric Lexus, trademark move suggests. In a trademark filing earlier this month, found by AutoGuide, Toyota Motor Corporation has claimed the UX300e name in Europe. Since the lower case "h" is commonly used for Lexus hybrid models, it’s reasonable to assume that the lower case "e" could be for electric models.....this conclusion follows what international Lexus executives have already said on the record since last year—that the brand will skip over plug-in hybrids and go directly to electric vehicles and fuel-cell models.
On December 14 China Automotive News reported:
Kia launches first electric vehicle with the KX3. Kia Motors began selling its first full electric vehicle, the battery-powered KX3 crossover, in China this week, complying with local regulations that require automakers expand electrified vehicle lineups. The electric KX3 has a starting price of 239,800 yuan ($34,855). The price is lowered to 147,300 yuan after government subsidies, according to Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Kia’s joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group, that builds the light vehicle. Powered by a lithium battery pack with a nominal load of 45.2kWh, it has a range of 300 kilometers and a maximum speed of 150 km per hour.
The Kia KX3 EV with a 45.2kWh lithium-ion battery pack
On December 11 Mercedes Blog reported:
20 billion commitment: Daimler announces serious investment in electric cars and batteries. Daimler puts a lot of money into electric driving. The German giant will spend at least 20 billion euros in the coming years on the purchase of batteries. In addition to the announced investment, the fleet of electrically powered vehicles marketed under the special label EQ will be expanded considerably. By 2022 there must be an electric variant of each of the approximately 130 types of cars wearing the Mercedez-Benz badge. Vans, buses and trucks must also be fitted with an electric motor. Daimler thinks that by 2025 approximately 15% to 25% of total sales will be covered by an electric variant. The global battery production network of Mercedes-Benz Cars will in the future consist of eight factories on three continents.
On December 12 Green Car Reports reported: "Ford hybrid police cars are pursuit-rated, ready for NYPD action."
Nio Inc. (formerly NextEV) (NIO)
On December 18 China Automotive News reported: "Nio eyes luxury sales amid sluggish market. Nio Inc., the U.S.-listed Chinese upstart seeking to take on the likes of Tesla Inc., said China will continue to be a big luxury car market despite falling car sales.....Electric vehicles sales grow fast in China and sales of luxury cars are unlikely to drop."
On December 18 China Automotive News reported:
Qiantu Motor to build EVs in North America with local partner Mullen Technologies. Chinese electric vehicle startup Qiantu Motor plans to assemble vehicles in North America in cooperation with Mullen Technologies Inc., a Southern California-based EV maker and car dealer. The Qiantu K50 is a 402-bhp full electric car with aluminum frame and carbon fiber body closures. By importing assembly-ready components from China and using key components sourced from the American market, the K50 will be made available to North American consumers in 2020 “at an unexpectedly affordable cost". The K50 is Qiantu’s first product. It went on sale in China in August with a starting price of 754,300 yuan ($109,320) before government subsidies in China. The China-built K50 has a range of 380 kilometers on one charge.
On November 26 Wired reported: "Rivian wants to do for pickups what Tesla did for cars."
Other electric car companies
Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO), Faraday Future (private), Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU), Fisker (private), GAC Motor Co., Great Wall Motor Co., Groupe PSA (owner of Peugeot), Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF), Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY), Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover).
Autonomous Driving/Connectivity/Onboard entertainment/Ride sharing
For autonomous vehicles currently Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) and General Motors are leaders. Tesla, Baidu (BIDU), Daimler, Aptiv (APTV), Ford, Volkswagen, Renault Nissan, BMW and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) are also doing well.
For connectivity and onboard entertainment ("smart car") Tesla has the Model 3's equipped with Wifi. Alibaba (BABA) has teamed up with SAIC to make an "internet car", as well as supplying its AI and car systems to Daimler, Audi and Volvo. Apple is doing well with Apple Play, as is Google with Android Auto. Ford China and Hyundai have both teamed up with Baidu (BIDU) for AI, infotainment systems and digital services.
For ride sharing - Currently all of these app companies (Uber, Lyft, Didi Chuxing, Grab Taxi, Ola, Gett, Mytaxi, and DriveNow) are private companies, and are not accessible to most investors.
On December 4 CNBC reported:
The future of the auto industry lies in car sharing, Chinese executives say. Several Chinese auto and transportation industry leaders are preparing for a future in which people share cars, rather than own them individually.” (The new generation), they’re not interested in the ownership. They’re probably more interested in accessibility,” Freeman Shen, founder and CEO of Chinese electric car company WM Motor. “If we can allocate the seats instead of vehicles ... then we can use the transportation system more efficiently,” Henry Liu, vice president, chief scientist of smart transportation at Didi. “At that moment, I think we have an autonomous vehicle fleet. And they can serve the transportation demand.
On December 27 Curbed reported: "The good, the bad, and the ugly of self-driving cars in 2018. From Uber’s fatal crash to Waymo’s driverless taxies to verrrrrrry slow buses—AVs still have a long way to go."
On December 27 Investor's Business Daily reported:
Why Waymo and autonomous vehicle rivals may take slower road to riches. Falling short of Waymo's goal to phase out its human supervisors, the commercial launch put a human back behind the wheel so they can intervene in case of emergency. The autonomous technology unit — considered the leader in this space — further disappointed by limiting the commercial service's availability mostly to people that took part in its early rider program. Waymo met expectations by offering its service to a 100-square-mile zone. It'll take longer to offer availability in the greater Phoenix area of 600-square miles. "It's safe to say that expectations for widespread Level 4 or 5 autonomy are 5 to 10 years away. The best we can expect in the short-term is low-speed applications in defined areas or on a limited city-by-city basis," said Roger Lanctot, analyst at Strategy Analytics.
Investors may also like to read my articles "Companies to benefit from the future smart car boom", "How To Benefit From The Autonomous Vehicles Trend Starting As Soon As 2019", and "An Update On The Autonomous Vehicle And Ride Sharing Trend."
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I am following include Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Didi Chuxing, Dyson (private), Great Wall Motors, Fisker (private), GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF), Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF), Lamborghini, Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Suzuki Motor Corp. [TYO: 7269] (OTCPK:SZKMY) (OTCPK:SZKMF), WM Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or planning to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - Norway (2025), Netherlands (2030), China (?2030/35), Germany (?2030), Israel (2030), UK (2040), France (2040), Japan (2050); Paris (2030), London, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens. Added to this are countries pushing hard to become 100% EV - Norway and India (30% by 2030).
Investors can also read my article "The EV Boom Just Keeps Getting Bigger."
Global light electric vehicle sales set to exceed 2 million in 2018
November 2018 electric car sales were simply amazing and set a new record, up 73% on November 2017. Electric car market share for November reached 3.2% in Europe, 6.3% in China, and ~2.5% (October figure) in the US. Year to date global electric car market share is now at 2.0%, and likely to exceed 2m sales in 2018, compared to 1.28m in 2017.
Two key news items caught my attention. The first being "$100 per kilowatt hour batteries by 2020," and the second "100kms of range in 3 minutes." It is looking very possible that by the early 2020's we will have 300km range BEVs competitively priced to ICE cars, and they will be able to charge at acceptable times at fast chargers. Bingo - Price, range, and charge time all solved.
Highlights for the month were:
- Year to date global electric car market share hits 2.0%, on track for 2m electric car sales in 2018. China November market share was a record breaking 6.3%.
- Forbes - "Envision Energy will produce batteries for $100 per kilowatt hour by 2020.....Lei predicts fossil-fuel cars will disappear "overnight" when EVs become cheaper."
- California mandates all new buses must be electric by 2029, 25% by 2023, 50% by 2026.
- Daimler thinks that by 2025 approximately 15 to 25 per cent of total sales will be covered by an electric variant.
- ChargePoint made a commitment at the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco in September to build charging spaces for up to 2.5 million electric cars globally.
- BMW and Porsche now have 450kW FastCharge with 100kms of range in 3 minutes.
- Teslarati - The latter half of 2019 could signal the beginning of Model 3 production in China. Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition.
- BYD opens electric bus plant in France.
- Volkswagen says it will develop its final generation of vehicles using combustion engine technology in 2026, and focus instead on electric cars. Volkswagen prepares for mass production of $23,000 electric vehicle.
- Audi announces €14 billion investment with focus on electric vehicles.
- Forbes - "GM must adapt or die: A lesson for U.S. automakers."
- Daimler-Mercedes - "Daimler will spend at least 20 billion euros in the coming years on the purchase of batteries. By 2022 there must be an electric variant of each of the approximately 130 types of cars wearing the Mercedez-Benz badge.
- Kia launches first electric vehicle (in China) with the KX3.
- CNBC - The future of the auto industry lies in car sharing, Chinese executives say.
- Waymo and autonomous vehicle rivals may take slower road to riches.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
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