Week 3 Breakout Forecast 2019: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

|
Includes: EXPI, INTC, VZ, YGYI
by: JD Henning
Summary

Two new Breakout Stocks for Week 3 with better than 10% short-term upside potential.

New Two Best of the Dow 30 for Week 3 mega-cap selections based on breakout model characteristics.

Performance results for 2018 ended with +34.83% gains, outperforming the S&P 500 by +40.05% over the same trading period.

Total returns for the Breakout Stocks since 2017 is 76.02% compared to 7.76% for the S&P 500 over the same trading period.

Continuing from last year now makes it 74 out of 88 trading weeks (84.09%), with at least one stock move 10% or greater within a 4 or 5 day trading.

New Dow 30 Selections

Starting this week I have added the 2 Best of the Dow 30 selections to provide a weekly mega-cap component using the breakout characteristics. While this model continues to be highly successful in outperforming the S&P 500 over the past two years by 76.02% to 7.76% the majority of the top breakout performance selections tend to emerge from micro-cap stocks.

While I don't expect Dow stocks to outperform typical breakout stocks over the measured 5 day breakout period, it should provide some strong additional basis for investors to judge future performance for mega-cap stocks in the short to medium term.

Breakout Stock Portfolio 2019 results YTD

Cumulative Weekly Max Gain YTD: +12.79%

Cumulative Gain by Friday of the Week: -3.57%

Selling the breakout stocks in 4 days or less is currently the most profitable strategy. A noticeable selloff is recurring on Fridays that is gaming returns.

(Source: Value & Momentum Breakouts)

So far the returns above represent a distinct pattern among traders in high momentum volatility breakout selections who are exiting positions ahead of the Friday close for the week. As the table shows for the 8 selections for 2019 so far the best returns were achieved in fewer than four days with an average top gain of 6.39%.

Momentum parameters have continued to improve from Week 2 Breakout Selections. For Week 3, the selections begin the week with Momentum values at 46 Positive and 13 Negative.

(Source: Value & Momentum Breakouts Dashboard)

Using the signals of the Momentum Gauge may significantly improve your returns in 2019. Two conditional signals that are very important to watch:

  • Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is higher than the Positive momentum score.
  • Avoid/Minimize trading when the Negative score is above 70 on the gauge.

The Week 3 - 2019 Breakout Stocks for next week are:

The four Breakout Stocks to start Week 3 consist of 2 services, 1 consumer goods and 1 financial stock.

  1. eXp World Holdings (OTC:EXPI) - Financial / Property Management
  2. Youngevity International (YGYI) - Consumer Goods / Processed & Packaged Goods

eXp World Holdings (OTC:EXPI) - Financial / Property Management

Price Target: 14.00

(Source: FinViz)

Jan-09-19 09:00AM eXp Realtys Scott Petronis Named to Real Estate Standards Organization Board of Directors GlobeNewswire
Jan-07-19 09:00AM eXp Realty Announces November ICON Agents GlobeNewswire
Dec-27-18 09:00AM eXp World Holdings Announces Sustainable Equity Plan and Equity Offset Repurchase Program GlobeNewswire

eXp World Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based real estate brokerage services for residential real estate market in the United states and Canada. The company facilitates buyers to search real-time property listings and sellers to list their properties through its Website; and provides buyers and sellers access to a network of professional, consumer-centric agents, and brokers.

Youngevity International (YGYI) - Consumer Goods / Processed & Packaged Goods

Price Target: 10.00

(Source: FinViz)

Jan-08-19 08:30AM YGYI's CLR Roasters Ships First 3.8 Million Pounds of Green Coffee Under its 5-Year Estimated $250 Million Green Coffee Contract PR Newswire
Jan-07-19 08:47AM Do Institutions Own Youngevity International, Inc. (NASDAQ:YGYI) Shares? Simply Wall St.

Youngevity International, Inc. develops and distributes health and nutrition related products and services through independent direct selling network in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Direct Selling and Commercial Coffee.

Top 2 Dow 30 Stocks for Week 3

Applying the same breakout model parameters without regard to market cap or the below average volatility of mega-cap stocks may produce similar strong results relative to other Dow 30 stocks. The top 2 stocks based on my published breakout parameters for week 3 are:

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

(Source: FinViz)

Intel Corporation (INTC)

(Source: FinViz)

Caution: These stocks are not necessarily recommended for long term buy/hold unless you are comfortable with very large price swings. These are the most volatile selections I offer from among all the different Value & Momentum portfolios.

All of these key weekly and monthly selections feed into the Premium Portfolio database selection model portfolio that is now up 16.21% YTD through 1/11/2019.

All the very best to you in the New Year and have a great week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in EXPI, YGYI over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.